Heroes And Zeroes: Mets 3, Marlins 1

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which focus on the players who had the most impact at the plate and on the mound. I used the Wins Probability Added (WPA) chart at www.fangraphs.com to help sort out the details.

Heroes

Daniel Murphy (NYM) .577

Murphy, batting fifth, started out by flying out to Adeiny Hechavarria to open the second inning (-2.3%). In the fourth, he hit into a 4-3 groundout for the second out of the inning (-1.9%), and did it again to open the seventh (-3.8%). Nothing yet to indicate his impending heroism. With one out and men on first and second in the top of the ninth, down 1-0, he knocked one over the fence for all of New York's RBI. The plate appearance was weighted more heavily than anything else seen in the contest (6.13), and resulted in over half of the win getting credited to Murphy on that one play (65.6%).

Jarred Cosart (MIA) .495

Cosart gets a no decision in a game that he clearly pitched well enough to win. He only struck out two Mets in eight innings, but he also allowed only two hits and three walks. It was a shame.

Martin Prado (MIA) .227

Prado, batting second, grounded out to second for the second out of the first inning (-1.5%), then grounded out to third with a man on first for the final out of the third inning (-2.5%). He grounded out to shortstop for the second out of the sixth (-2.3%). With two out and two on in the eighth, Prado hit what looked to be the game winner, a single that scored pinch runner Reid Brignac (+29.1%).

Almost Heroes

Juan Lagares (NYM) .089

Lucas Duda (NYM) .086

Jeurys Familia (NYM) .081

Dillon Gee (NYM) .078

Carlos Torres (NYM) .028

Justin Bour (MIA) .023

Minimal Impact

Dee Gordon (MIA) -.002

Curtis Granderson (NYM) -.009

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.011

Almost Zeroes

Eric Campbell (NYM) -.030

Wilmer Flores (NYM) -.056

Michael Morse (MIA) -.069

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.077

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.096

Kevin Plawecki (NYM) -.101

JT Realmuto (MIA) -.102

Zeroes

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.120

Batting cleanup, Ozuna led off the second with a groundout to short (-2.3%), then grounded out to the pitcher with nobody out and Giancarlo Stanton on first in the fourth, moving Stanton to second (-1.8%). He flew out to right to open the seventh (-3.7%), then struck out swinging to open the Marlins ninth (-4.2%).

Michael Cuddyer (NYM) -.242

Cuddyer, also batting cleanup, flew out with a runner on first for the final out of the opening frame (-2.2%). He struck out on three pitches to open the fourth (-2.7%), flew out to right with a runner on first for the third out of the sixth (-3.4%), then flew out to right with runners on first and second with nobody out in the eighth (-16.0%).

Steve Cishek (MIA) -.768

In no surprise to anyone who watched the game, the big Zero goes to Cishek, who was penalized with over three quarters of a loss in just one inning.Cishek's ninth would see him allow a double to Juan Lagares (-19.9%), walk Lucas Duda (-8.1%), induce Cuddyer to fly out (+16.0%), and allow a home run to Daniel Murphy (+65.6%). After allowing a double to Eric Campbell (-1.3%), it was a case of too little too late as he struck out Wilmer Flores (+2.1%) and Kevin Plawecki (+1.3%).

Last 10 Games

Jarred Cosart	0.788
Adieny Hechavarria	0.637
Dee Gordon	0.452
Martin Prado	0.347
AJ Ramos	0.320
Justin Bour	0.175
David Phelps	0.117
Bryan Morris	0.108
Reid Brignac	0.086
Giancarlo Stanton	0.068
Sam Dyson	0.040
Marcell Ozuna	0.039
Mat Latos	0.006
Nick Masset	0.002
Jeff Baker	-0.005
Tom Koehler	-0.075
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	-0.091
Jose Urena	-0.106
Mike Dunn	-0.165
Ichiro Suzuki	-0.169
Donovan Solano	-0.208
Brad Hand	-0.212
JT Realmuto	-0.317
Mike Morse	-0.346
Christian Yelich	-0.353
Dan Haren	-0.543
Steve Cishek	-0.600

Ichthyomancy

Attendance: 18,547

Gatorfan4life guessed 18,385, just 162 off the actual fans in attendance. He also picked the winner for a total of three points.

dcfish called Prado a Hero for one.

Jigokusabre had, erm, a bad night, as did thenumber95 and Marlon D.

Jeremy Hulme called Cosart a Hero and Cuddyer a Zero.

gustavopim called a Cosart QS.

MiamiSkye called a Cosart QS and called him a Hero.

Ichthyomancy Standings

gustavopim	46.5
Kevin Kraczkowski	39.5
Jigokusabre	37.5
dcfish	35
Miami Skye	35.5
Bdwatson	24
Marlon D	19
tomwolf2008	17
Gatorfan4life	16.5
Thomas Bennett	11
thenumber95	9
Jeremy Hulme	7
zag	3
Alex Carver	3
Delusional Marlins Fan	2
rsanchez1	2
sternma	2
Al-Kendall	2
DavidJacobs	2
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
nfries7	1

Tune in tonight as the Marlins try to take their first game from the Mets this season in their sixth try, at 7:10 PM. Leave your picks here or in the GameThread later.