Heroes and Zeroes is a series where I take each players contribution to the final result (based on weighted plate appearances) of the ballgame. Each participant in the matchup is ranked from best to worst. The top three are "Heroes," the bottom three are "Zeroes." I used the win expectancy chart from www.fangraphs.com to rank these players.
Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .239
Hechavarria, batting eighth, started his night with two-on, two-out infield single to load the bases in the second (+3.3%). With one out and the bases loaded in the fourth, he singled to right, scoring Michael Morse and Marcell Ozuna (+17.7%) for a 2-0 Marlins lead. He drew a walk from Justin De Fratus to lead off the sixth (+0.8%), later scoring on a Martin Prado double, hit another infield single in the seventh (+0.0%), with two outs, and knocked in Miami's ninth run of the game with two out in the ninth, with his fourth single of the night (+0.0%).
David Phelps (MIA) .135
Phelps earned a quality start with seven shutout innings. He dragged his win expectancy way down with a bases loaded groundout in the second inning (-7.7%). He allowed just five baserunners, on three hits and two walks, striking out five Phillies.
Martin Prado (MIA) .134
Prado, batting second for the Marlins, struck out swinging in his first turn at the dish with one out (-1.4%), then flew out to right for the second out of the third (-1.6%). As the eighth Marlins' hitter to the plate in the fourth, he hit a bases-loaded, two-out single to left to score Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Adeiny Hechavarria (+12.6%) to give Miami a 4-0 lead. He made it 6-0 in the sixth, with a one-out double to right to score Hechavarria and Dee Gordon (+3.8%). He added a single to center with an eight run lead in the eighth (+0.0%).
Marcell Ozuna (MIA) .122
Michael Morse (MIA) .094
Darren Ruf (PHI) .038
Cesar Hernandez (PHI) .003
Freddie Galvis (PHI) .001
Mike Dunn (MIA) .001
Jake Diekman (PHI) .000
Jeanmar Gomez (PHI) .000
Nick Massett (MIA) .000
Reid Brignac (MIA) .000
Grady Sizemore (PHI) -.014
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.022
Ben Revere (PHI) -.026
Cameron Rupp (PHI) -.027
Cody Asche (PHI) -.028
Jeff Francoeur (PHI) -.033
Odubel Herrera (PHI) -.037
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) -.043
Hector Neris (PHI) -.051
Justin De Fratus (PHI) -.057
Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.065
Andres Blanco (PHI) -.065
Blanco, batting eighth for Philadelphia, grounded out with runners on first and second to end the second (-4.4%). Down by four with a runner on first in the fifth, he flew out to right for the second out of the inning (-2.0%). He struck out swinging to lead off the eighth (-0.1%) and grounded out to Michael Morse to end the game (-0.0%).
Dee Gordon (MIA) -.095
Gordon struck out on four pitches to lead off the game (-2.1%), flew out to left to lead off the third (-2.4%), struck out swinging with the bases loaded and one out in the fourth (-4.4%), reached base on an error with one out in the sixth (+0.3%), and grounded out to second to lead off the eighth (-0.0%).
Dustin McGowan (PHI) -.204
All things considered, McGowan could have done worse. Up until very recently considered a reliever, he kept the Marlins scoreless through three innings before walking the bases loaded in the fourth, ultimately allowing four runs. He pitched 3.1 innings, allowing four walks and three hits. He also struck out four.
Last 10 Games
I called the winner and got two more points by calling Miami for 12 or more baserunners and striking out at least seven.
dcfish called the winner and Phelps as a hero, going at least seven innings.
tomwolf2008 called the winner and said the game would be scoreless for three innings. He earned two more by calling Prado a hero and McGowan a zero.
DavidJacobs also called Prado and McGowan for two points.
Jigokusabre earned a point for calling the winner, a point for calling Phelps K + IP > McGowan K + IP, and a third point for calling Marlins HR > Phillies HRs.
gustavopim won the attendance with a guess of 17,679, said the Marlins would never trail, and took a third point by saying the Marlins would get at least seven hits.
* - I'm going to keep awarding points for these picks that seem to have a much better than 50% success rate, but soon, I'm going to have to start awarding two points for picks that seem to have a 50% or less rate. It seems unfair to give the same reward for stacked odds.
|Delusional Marlins Fan||2|
Tune in tomorrow night at 7:10 as the Fish face off against the Nationals. Get your picks in here or in the GameThread.