Heroes And Zeroes: Braves 3, Marlins 2

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which aim to isolate the key moments in each game. Using a weighted approach to plate appearances in different situations and applying the results of those at bats gives us a clear picture of just who is coming through in the clutch. I used www.fangraphs.com and their Wins Probability Added (WPA) feature.

Heroes

Eric Young (ATL) .176

Young led off the bottom half of the first with a swinging strikeout (-2.0%). He doubled to left with one out in the third inning (+5.4%), then hit a go ahead RBI double with a man on first and one out in the fifth for a 2-1 Braves lead (+14.9%). Young struck out swinging again leading off the seventh inning (-0.7%), and did not make another plate appearance.

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) .146

Hechavarria singled to lead off the third (4.3%), later scoring the first run of the game on a Christian Yelich groundout. With the score tied at one, he led off the fifth with a walk (+5.0%), then grounded out to shortstop to end the seventh inning (-1.1%). With runners on first and second with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, he singled to left, scoring Martin Prado for Miami's last run of the game.

Cody Martin (ATL) .113

Martin relieved Atlanta starter Shelby Miller in the sixth inning with a 3-1 lead, inducing Giancarlo Stanton to fly out (+2.7%), allowing a single to Martin Prado (-3.5%), then getting Michael Morse to ground into an inning ending double play (-6.2%). He stayed on in the seventh, extracting strikeouts from Marcell Ozuna (-2.9%) and Jarrod Saltamacchia (-1.8%) before getting Hechavarria to ground out to short (-1.1%).

Almost Heroes

Christian Bethancourt (MIA) .102

Dee Gordon (MIA) .079

Martin Prado (MIA) .076

Shelby Miller (ATL) .072

Alberto Callaspo (ATL) .062

Jim Johnson (ATL) .059

Jason Grilli (ATL) .057

Nick Markakis (ATL) .052

Jace Peterson (ATL) .044

Minimal Impact

Chris Johnson (ATL) .019

AJ Ramos (MIA) .016

Carter Capps (MIA) .009

Kelly Johnson (ATL) -.015

Almost Zeroes

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.030

Sam Dyson (MIA) -.038

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) -.040

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) -.043

Cameron Maybin (ATL) -.064

Andrelton Simmons (ATL) -.077

Christian Yelich (MIA) -.086

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.097

Freddie Freeman (ATL) -.103

Zeroes

Jeff Baker (MIA) -.128

Baker came on with two out in the bottom of the ninth to pinch hit for Carter Capps with runners on first and second, and struck out looking to end the game (-12.8%).

Michael Morse (MIA) -.149

Morse earned his seasons' fourth Zero in only the seventh contest of the year. He grounded out with one out in the second  (-1.5%), grounded out to Shelby Miller for the second out of the fourth (-1.3%), grounded into a double play the end the Marlins' threat in the sixth (-6.2%), and struck out swinging with nobody out and a man on second in the ninth (-5.9%).

Mat Latos (MIA) -.216

Latos faced the Braves for the second time already this year. He was far better this time (relatively so), getting through four innings and striking out five. He allowed eight baserunners, on five hits and three walks, for two runs.  His effort brought his WHIP down to 3.43 and his ERA to 17.36.

Ichthyomancy

Jeremy Hulme and I predicted Hechavarria would finish as a Zero. Jeremy also earned two more points with an attendance guess of 16500 (it was 13417).

thenumber95 shouldn't really get a point for calling Latos getting his ERA below 50, but I'll give it to him.

gustavopim called Young a Hero.

Marlon D said that the Marlins bullpen would allow one run or less. They allowed zero in five innings.

Bdwatson was a winner, calling a Braves win and Latos as a Zero.

dcfish	13
Jigokusabre	11
Kevin Kraczkowski	10
Bdwatson	7
Marlon D	6
gustavopim	6
Miami Skye	4
Thomas Bennett	4
thenumber95	4
zag	3
Jeremy Hulme	3
Gatorfan4life	2
Delusional Marlins Fan	2
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
sternma	1
Al-Kendall	1

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