Heroes And Zeroes: Rays 8, Marlins 5

Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which aim to isolate the key moments in each game. Using a weighted approach to plate appearances in different situations and applying the results of those at bats gives us a clear picture of just who is coming through in the clutch. I used www.fangraphs.com and their Wins Probability Added (WPA) feature.

Heroes

David DeJesus (TB) .258

DeJesus singled to right with one out in the first, taking second on a Giancarlo Stanton fielding error (+4.1%), later scoring on an Asdrubal Cabrera single (see below). He grounded out to second base to close the third with a man on second (-3.2%), then hit a three run home run with one out in the fifth for a 4-1 Rays lead (+24.8%). He was lifted for pinch hitter Brandon Guyer in the top of the sixth.

Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) .130

Cabrera earned the first RBI of the game, knocking in DeJesus with one out in the first for a 1-0 Rays lead (+8.8%). He took second on a wild pitch a moment later (+1.6%). He led off the fourth with a single to left (+3.6%), struck out swinging for the second out of the fifth (-0.7%), flew out to right to open the seventh (-0.4%), then drew a one out walk in the ninth (+0.3%), later scoring Tampa Bay's eighth run.

Tim Beckham (TB) .116

Beckham pinch hit for Allan Dykstra in the sixth with a man on first and nobody out. He tripled off reliever Brad Hand (+10.3%), extending the lead out to 5-2. He scored the eventual winning run later in the inning on a Rene Rivera double. He struck out looking to lead off the eighth (-0.3%), then singled in Tampa Bay's final run in the ninth with a single to right field off Bryan Morris (+1.6%).

Almost Heroes

Rene Rivera (TB) .111

Dee Gordon (MIA) .109

Ernesto Frieri (TB) .064

Nathan Karns (TB) .063

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) .059

Evan Longoria (TB) .042

Kevin Kiermaier (TB) .027

Minimal Impact

Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) .014

Jeff Baker (MIA) .013

Christian Yelich (MIA) .012

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) .009

Martin Prado (MIA) .002

Steven Souza Jr. (TB) -.002

Bryan Morris (MIA) -.014

Jeff Beliveau (TB) -.015

Brandon Guyer (TB) -.017

Don Kelly (MIA) -.017

Almost Zeroes

Kirby Yates (TB) -.045

Jeff Mathis (MIA) -.047

Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.053

Desmond Jennings (TB) -.053

Logan Forsythe (TB) -.084

Donovan Solano (MIA) -.091

Allan Dykstra (TB) -.092

Zeroes

Michael Morse (MIA) -.094

Morse started out his night by grounding out with a runner on third to end the first inning (-3.8%). He struck out swinging with runners on the corners for the first out of the fourth (-8.3%), then grounded out to the pitcher for the second out of the sixth (-1.0%). Down by five runs in the eighth inning, Morse redeemed himself a little with a two-out two-RBI double to left field, scoring Martin Prado and Dee Gordon (+3.7%).

Brad Hand (MIA) -.125

Hand relieved Henderson Alvarez to open the sixth inning, and promptly gave up a single, two doubles, and a triple for two runs in the frame (-12.1%). He went on to pitch two more innings, allowing a total of six hits and three earned runs, striking out two Rays and taking the loss for the Marlins.

Henderson Alvarez (MIA) -.277

The Entertainer certainly kept things interesting, for Tampa Bay fans. He pitched for five innings, giving up a walk and seven hits. He struck out three and allowed four earned runs, including a three-run bomb to David DeJesus in the fifth inning (-24.8%). He didn't do himself any favors at the plate either, striking out in his only at bat.

Ichthyomancy

dcfish called an attendance of 20,000, just short of the actual figure of 20,199 for two points.

As is our custom here at Fish Stripes, we all predicted the Marlins would pull out a victory, and we were all wrong for zero points.

Bdwatson earned a point for predicting a Marlins home run, and another for calling a zero for Morse.

I said that Morse would earn a zero and that Stanton would not hit a home run for a total of two points.

That was it for winning bets. Encourage your friends to play, it's a long year.

Ichthyomancy Standings

dcfish	13
Jigokusabre	11
Kevin Kraczkowski	9
Marlon D	5
gustavopim	5
Bdwatson	5
Miami Skye	4
Thomas Bennett	4
zag	3
thenumber95	3
Gatorfan4life	2
Delusional Marlins Fan	2
SuperRadz	1
ncchief	1
d.o.g.o.b.y.g.n.	1
sternma	1
Al-Kendall	1

Join us back here at Fish Stripes for the next series, a three gamer in Atlanta. First pitch is set for 7:10PM tomorrow night. Leave all picks here or in the Ichthy Game Thread.