Heroes and Zeroes is a series of articles which aims to isolate and explain the most heavily weighted causes for victory and defeat after each Marlins game. I used www.fangraphs.com and their Wins Probability Added (WPA) metric to determine the most and least "clutch" performers.
Chris Archer (TB) .345
In no surprise to anyone who watched, the first star of the game was Chris Archer. As a hitter, he went 0-for-3 from the plate, striking out once and earning an offensive WPA of -.084. As we all know, however, a pitcher doesn't make his paycheck at the plate. Archer pitched seven strong innings, allowing a double to Christian Yelich in the fourth (-5.2%) and walking Ichiro Suzuki in the sixth (-4.5%). Aside from that, Archer struck out five Marlins (+10.5%), induced 10 ground outs (+27.9%) and five fly outs (+7.9%). The biggest single event contribution to his win, however, was when Ichiro Suzuki was caught trying to steal second base in the sixth inning (+7.2%).
Jarred Cosart (MIA) .134
Cosart matched Archer through the first five innings before allowing a single run in the sixth to take the loss. He allowed three hits and three walks over six innings (for a WHIP of exactly 1.00). He didn't allow a baserunner over the first three innings (+14.9%) before giving up a double (-7.7%) and a walk (-3.5%) in the fourth. The main cause for his loss, of course, was in the sixth. Namely, Evan Longoria's RBI double to center with two outs (-17.3%).
Tim Beckham (TB) .132
Beckham was the only non-pitcher to earn a slot amongst the Heroes in today's matchup. He pinch-hit for Allan Dykstra to open the seventh, slamming the ball over the left-center field fence for Tampa Bay's second run of the night (+12.5%). He added a ninth inning single (+.4%) and a stolen base (+.4%).
Evan Longoria (TB) .098
Brad Boxberger (TB) .081
Kevin Jepsen (TB) .080
Christian Yelich (MIA) .031
Marcell Ozuna (MIA) .028
Sam Dyson (MIA) .028
Kevin Kiermaier (TB) .012
Desmond Jennings (TB) -.009
Steven Souza Jr. (TB) -.011
Bobby Wilson (TB) -.012
Rene Rivera (TB) -.015
Ichiro Suzuki (MIA) -.027
Allan Dykstra (TB) -.031
Donovan Solano (MIA) -.042
Logan Forsythe (TB) -.074
Michael Morse (MIA) -.078
Mike Dunn (MIA) -.084
Martin Prado (MIA) -.085
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) -.090
Dee Gordon (MIA) -.092
Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) -.096
Cabrera didn't have a bad night when measured by simple statistics, getting a hit and scoring a run in plate appearances. He grounded out to shortstop to end Tampa Bay's first inning (-1.0%), then grounded into a no-out, two-on double play in the fourth inning (-12.4%). His night wasn't a total wash, however. The sixth inning would see him hit a two-out triple to center (+4.3%) and score the game-winner a moment later. He would strike out swinging in the eighth to close his statline for the night (-0.4%).
Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) -.104
Despite Hechavarria's defensive heroics, the shortstop's offensive display in the fifth game of the season left a little to be desired. He struck out looking for the second out of the third inning (-1.7%), grounded out to second base for the first out of the sixth (-3.9%), and flew out to first base with a runner on second to close the eighth (-4.8%).
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -.119
Stanton earned the largest negative WPA of anyone on the night, striking out looking at a fastball to end the ballgame (-4.3%) with the Marlins down, 2-0. Before that, he registered the final out of the first inning with a foul out to the first baseman (-1.0%), struck out swinging with Christian Yelich standing on second base with one out in the fourth (-4.2%), and grounded out to third base for the second out of the seventh inning (-2.4%).
Thomas Bennett was only 170 fans from predicting the actual attendance, calling 18,000 (actual figure 17,830) for two points.
Jigokusabre and Delusional Marlins Fan correctly predicted Cosart as a hero and Hechavarria as a zero for two.
MiamiSkye, thenumber95, and I called Cosart a hero for one point.
dcfish and Zag called Cabrera a zero for one point.
gustavopim got two points by predicting that Cosart would pitch for a QS and Hechavarria would finish with a zero.
|Delusional Marlins Fan||2|
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