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Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Game 39 Thread and Ichthyomancy

The Miami Marlins will be going for a series win today against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Tom Koehler will get his first start of the year against Chris Capuano.


Current Series

3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium

Fri 05/10 WP: Jose Fernandez (2 - 2)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Ronald Belisario (2 - 4)
5 - 4 win
Sat 05/11 WP: Hyun-Jin Ryu (4 - 2)
LP: Kevin Slowey (1 - 3)
1 - 7 loss

Miami Marlins
@ Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, May 12, 2013, 4:10 PM EDT
Dodger Stadium

Tom Koehler vs Chris Capuano

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >

The Miami Marlins are going for the rare series win today against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Fish just got blown out by the Dodgers 7-1, but they send a new starter to the mound in Tom Koehler. Koehler makes his first start of the year in place of Wade LeBlanc, who has struggled as of late. He will face off against Chris Capuano, who shut down the Marlins last season the last time he faced the team.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Dodgers ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.355 5.38 3.01 3.18 Koehler Capuano 10.38 6.35 4.24 .468

Tom Koehler is being given today's start against the Dodgers because Wade LeBlanc has been terrible for much of the year. He struggled badly in his last few starts, pushing his peripheral numbers up closer to his awful ERA. LeBlanc is currently sporting a 6.11 ERA and a 4.99 FIP, neither of which will cut in the majors. Koehler has been a decent starter in the minors, but every time h has had a shot at starting, he has struggled. On the other hand, when he has pitched out of the pen, he has averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball and touched 96 more than a few times. Here's hoping he does not struggle like I suspect he will today.

Chris Capuano has been about as bad as one can expect for a player who has made two starts on the year. He has pitched in four games total, two starts, and thrown just 8 2/3 innings with 11 runs allowed in total. Last year, however, Capuano posted a a 3.72 ERA (3.95 FIP) in 198 1/3 innings, so he still has the stuff to get major league hitters out.

Also, remember that time Capuano struck out 10 Marlins in eight innings and pitched a two-hit shutout against us? Yeah, that happened last year too.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Juan Pierre .286
2 Placido Polanco .296
3 Justin Ruggiano .333
4 Marcell Ozuna .323
5 Greg Dobbs .257
6 Miguel Olivo .309
7 Derek Dietrich ---
8 Adeiny Hechavarria .291

The Marlins are boasting their best lineup versus lefty pitchers against Capuano today. It is telling, however, that even with their best options, they still have to play Greg Dobbs at catcher despite his awful play against lefties. It's also odd to see Hechavarria, who hit at the top of the lineup against same-handed righties for most of the week, is at the bottom of the order against a lefty.

The things managers do...


- I won't be here for this game, mostly because I'll be spending time with some friends for a final time during my stay here in south Florida. I'm moving up to Georgia this week and off to other locations for the next few months. Also, I wasn't here on Friday and we won, so that might help.

Bold Prediction: Dodgers def. Marlins 4-1