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Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: Game 19 Thread and Ichthyomancy

The Miami Marlins will look to salvage a split of this four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, and they will do so with Alex Sanabia on the mound versus Homer Bailey.


Current Series

Reds lead the series 2-1

Thu 04/18 WP: Tony Cingrani (1 - 0)
LP: Jose Fernandez (0 - 1)
1 - 11 loss
Fri 04/19 WP: Mike Dunn (1 - 0)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Aroldis Chapman (2 - 1)
2 - 1 win
Sat 04/20 WP: Alfredo Simon (1 - 1)
LP: Steve Cishek (1 - 2)
2 - 3 loss

Miami Marlins
@ Cincinnati Reds

Sunday, Apr 21, 2013, 1:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 50.

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The Miami Marlins are looking to pick up a split of this series with the Cincinnati Reds, and they will give it a try today with Alex Sanabia on the mound. For the Fish, this would be a nice #minorvictory to get, given that the team has yet to not lose a series this season; picking up a not-loss series is better than another beatdown from the opposing team. Standing in the way of that goal is Homer Bailey and the potent Reds offense.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Reds ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.344 5.52 5.38 4.24 Sanabia Bailey 3.32 4.13 4.14 .479

Alex Sanabia is the proud owner of two of the four total pitching wins that the Marlins have gotten. He has accomplished this by unknown, borderline nefarious means. No one understands just how he has done it given his terrible peripherals thus far. Then again, his terrible peripherals have also been confusing, as he has had good whiff numbers for the season. In short, no one understands Alex Sanabia at all.

Bailey has been a promising player for years for the Reds, but he finally turned some of that promise into goods in 2012 and he is looking to continue that in 2013. His biggest problem is the home run, as he has given up long balls at a 1.1-per-nine-innings rate for his career. Luckily for him and the Reds, the home run is the Marlins' greatest weakness, as the team has hit just four on the season.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Chris Coghlan .313
2 Donovan Solano .277
3 Giancarlo Stanton .402
4 Joe Mahoney ---
5 Justin Ruggiano .314
6 Rob Brantly .302
7 Nick Green ---
8 Chris Valaika ---

The Marlins are giving veterans Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco a well-deserved rest. The positive note for Marlins fans is that they get a well-deserved rest from Juan Pierre, who has been awful this season. If Chris Coghlan get anywhere close to a .313 wOBA versus righties, this would be one of the club's best lineups versus right-handers. Solano batting second and the unknown of Joe Mahoney inexplicably batting cleanup are the only two complaints near the top of the order.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Reds 3-2