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Game 124: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Marlins lead the series 1-0

Mon 08/20 WP: Mark Buehrle (11 - 11)
LP: Joe Saunders (6 - 10)
12 - 3 win

Miami Marlins
@ Arizona Diamondbacks

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012, 9:40 PM EDT
Chase Field

Ricky Nolasco vs Trevor Cahill

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 95.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 08/22 3:40 PM EDT
Wed 08/22 9:40 PM EDT

Uh, the Miami Marlins scored 12 runs yesterday and won 12-3. They beat an Arizona Diamondbacks team that actually has the best run differential in the NL West. The Diamondbacks are not a bad team at all, yet the Marlins won last night's game handily. I'm still in shock.

Tonight, however, is a different story. The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco out in the hopes that he performs as well as he did in his last start, while the D'Backs go with offseason acquisition Trevor Cahill. Now, neither the pitching nor hitting matchups are on our side.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Diamondbacks ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.440 4.50 4.24 4.94 Nolasco Cahill 3.75 4.22 4.04 .490

Remember when Ricky Nolasco was good? Sure you do, I even mentioned one game when he was dominant way back when. But this season's Ricky Nolasco is not that guy. The good news is that, for one start in Colorado, he did look like that guy again. Still, I would not put my money on Ricky Nolasco bouncing back with a second straight strong start, as erratic as he has been over the past four seasons.

Remember when Trevor Cahill had a 2.97 ERA and was the latest of many pitchers who would surely break the mold and defy defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS) theory? Yeah, since allowing hits on just under 24 percent of his balls in play two years ago, he has a BABIP of .299 since. If you think you're the pitcher to defy DIPS, the Luck Dragon will most likely not approve. That being said, Cahill is a pretty decent pitcher, having also put up a passable 3.99 ERA since that "breakout" year.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Emilio Bonifacio .311
2 Bryan Petersen .314
3 Jose Reyes .350
4 Carlos Lee .325
5 Giancarlo Stanton .377
6 Greg Dobbs .290
7 Donovan Solano .281
8 Rob Brantly ---

Justin Ruggiano is absent from this lineup, and in his place will be Bryan Petersen. Rob Brantly will get another start versus the righty starter Cahill, and so will Greg Dobbs, who has been battling oblique muscle issues.

Bold Prediction: Diamondbacks def. Marlins 5-1