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Game 105: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Braves lead the series 2-1

Mon 07/30 WP: Tommy Hanson (12 - 5)
LP: Mark Buehrle (9 - 10)
2 - 8 loss
Tue 07/31 WP: Kris Medlen (2 - 1)
LP: Ricky Nolasco (8 - 10)
1 - 7 loss
Wed 08/01 WP: Carlos Zambrano (6 - 9)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Ben Sheets (3 - 1)
4 - 2 win

Miami Marlins
@ Atlanta Braves

Thursday, Aug 2, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Turner Field

Nathan Eovaldi vs Mike Minor

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >

The Miami Marlins actually won a game last night, which is a good thing to see given their struggles as of late. Because of that win, the Fish can now actually salvage a series split with the Atlanta Braves if the Marlins can pull off a victory tonight in the series finale. The intriguing part of that is that the team has been given its best chance to do just that. as the Marlins will send Nathan Eovaldi for his second start as a Marlin after he had an impressive debut, and he will go up against the Braves' Mike Minor, who has been one of the worst starters on their team.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Braves ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.427 4.62 3.99 3.94 Eovaldi Minor 5.18 5.05 4.65 .424

Nathan Eovaldi had an excellent debut for the Marlins in his last start on Saturday, and the Fish are hoping for a repeat performance tonight against the Braves. Eovaldi struck out five and only walked two in 5 2/3 innings pitched and earned the win as the Marlins took out the San Diego Padres. The five strikeouts, even if two were against the pitcher, were at least an encouraging sign that Eovaldi could miss bats. But tonight he faces a much better lineup in Atlanta versus the one from San Diego.

Mike Minor has been an enigma for much of his career, but this season has been more of a distinct struggle. The strikeouts are still there to a degree (20.8 percent strikeout rate in 2012 versus a career 21.4 percent), but now he is simply allowing too many home runs. Minor's 22 home runs allowed ranks behind only three other qualified major league pitchers this season.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Emilio Bonifacio .306
2 Gorkys Hernandez ---
3 Jose Reyes .347
4 Carlos Lee .335
5 Austin Kearns .320
6 Donovan Solano .291
7 Donnie Murphy .308
8 John Buck .311

The Marlins are loading up on right-handers against the lefty minor, and that typically includes playing Austin Kearns and Donovan Solano. However, the team is also resting Justin Ruggiano for a second straight evening, which seems a little odd but is understandable given his recent workload. The lineup does not actually look all that bad tonight with all of the right-handers being above respectability against the lefty! It's still not going to be fun to watch.

By the way, Gorkys Hernandez is making his Marlins starting debut tonight in center field. I do not have a projection for him yet, but since he is well known as a player who does not have a major league bat, I suspect those dashed lines may be approximately correct.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Braves 5-4