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Source: FanGraphs
The Miami Marlins suffered a defeat they will not soon forget at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon. The above win probability graph only displays the emotional rollercoaster of a game that it was. I am ashamed to say that I was not even a part of the rollercoaster action, as I left for dinner and did not return to catch the game until after its wild finish. The above image really is all that needs to be said about the game, but let's convey the emotions of me and the Fish Stripes faithful as we witnessed this game on the game thread.
LOMO!
That was in response to the first-inning two-run home run by Logan Morrison that put the Fish up two early in the game. At that very point, the Marlins had a 66.5 percent chance of winning. Let's keep that number in mind.
yay!
that inning stopped happening
That was Andrew's jubilation that a three-run third inning for the Brewers finally ended. Anibal Sanchez appeared to be eminently hittable, but some of those singles that he did give up were squibbers that were beat out at first and just found holes in the infield. You cannot get too upset at Sanchez, but he did allow the runs. At this point, the Marlins had a 37.1 percent chance of winning.
6:02 PM EST, Andrew TownesThis game feels oddly out of reach.
This was one prophetic quote by Andrew. This quote occurred right before the bottom of the sixth inning, with the Marlins sitting at just a 25.4 percent chance of winning. The next inning started with a Corey Hart home run (14.8 percent chance) and it simply did not stop. The Fish pulled Anibal Sanchez and inserted Chad Gaudin, who did not help matters by allowing an additional walk and three-run homer by Ryan Braun. In total, the Brewers scored six runs in the frame and turned a close game into a blowout. Following Braun's three-run shot, I made this statement which turned out to be erroneous in more than one way.
Aaaaand this one's shot
Braun being Braun, and the Brewers are up 8-2. Feels like June with the bullpen letting another close game get away.
Of course, I mistakenly took away a run from the Brew Crew, but boy was I wrong about this one being over. At this stage, however, the Marlins had just a 0.7 percent chance of winning.
Ugh, time for dinner
This game has been disgusting to watch as a fan. We score five runs and allow 10. It’s easy get tired of those sorts of games.
Of course, 7:00 pm is my usual dinner time, and so I figured I would be heading out at this point to go eat. This decision was made after a three-run seventh inning was slightly erased by another run allowed by the hapless bullpen of the Fish. At this stage, the Marlins were down 10-5 and still only had a 0.7 percent chance of winning despite pulling within five runs. I left at this point, only to return at the end of the game. Boy, what a game did I miss.
Buck is just selfishly trying to raise his trade value
Selfish Buck. Rally killer.
This comment came during a furious eighth inning rally by the Fish against Brewers relievers Kameron Loe and Francisco Rodriguez. In particular, dgriot said this following John Buck's two-run home run that pulled the Marlins to within two runs at 11-9. At this point however, the Fish still only had a 9.4 percent chance to win this ball game.
7:25-7:27 PM EST, Andrew Townes and dgriot
This happened right after Scott Cousins followed John Buck's two-run shot with a solo home run to make the game 11-10 Brewers. Now the Marlins were really in business, as Cousins's shot pulled the Fish up to a 19.3 percent chance.
TIE GAME!!
This comment was very fitting, as the game was indeed tied! The Marlins put up six runs in the inning to tie the game at 11-11, topped off by a sacrifice fly by Greg Dobbs to score Jose Reyes, who had hit a huge double following the back-to-back home runs.
the out, to extras we go!
This happened after the Fish forced extra innings after a shaky inning by Steve Cishek and Mike Dunn. The Brewers got as close as having a runner on third base with two outs. The Leverage Index (LI) of the last plate appearance by George Kottaras was at 4.6, essentially almost five times as important as a normal PA. Needless to say, at this stage, the Marlins had a 50 percent chance of winning.
Lo viste, baby!
Light that thing up. Who cares if no one is in our park?
This followed what appeared, at the time, to be the most crucial play of the game. Jeremy did a great job of emulating what I think the call should be for our Monstrosity in center field and represented me well in my absence as Jose Reyes launched a solo home run that put the Marlins ahead. That play was worth 0.415 WPA and It gave the Fish a 81.4 percent chance of winning the game.
michaels gonna be pissed he left
You are damn right.
8:34-8:37 PM EST, dgriot and Jigokusabre
That first out embiggens us all with confidence
by dgriot on Jul 3, 2012 5:34 PM PDT via Android app reply actions
Well played, gentlemen. After that first out recorded by Heath Bell, a flyout by Norichika Aoki, Bell and the Fish had a 79.6 percent chance of winning this game.
1 more out!
Bell had just struck out the All-Star outfielder Braun and had only one batter left to go to close out what would have been an amazing comeback. With two outs in the 10th inning, the Marlins were up to a 90.5 percent chance of winning.
8:39-8:43 PM EST, FishNFinz, Andrew Townes, and lockwood11j
there's someone out there who actually keeps stats on use of the f bomb on fan sites like this one
i try to avoid it, but hard to blame anyone after that
Just like that, a victory is taken away. Heath Bell allows the walk-off, two-run home run to Aramis Ramirez, and after a dramatic, epic comeback, the Fish come out with defeat. The play gives Ramirez and the Brewers 0.860 WPA and a victory, leaving the Marlins empty-handed for their troubles.
Tommy Hutton, emotional as he always is, spouted gibberish about not throwing the fastball again at Ramirez after going 0-1 with the fastball, but the truth is that if Ramirez looks at that pitch, Hutton never complains. The reality was that, after such a great comeback, Bell's final pitch was in the zone and mostly down the middle of the plate and it was rocked for the walk-off blast. It eviscerated an amazing comeback which I only just missed by 15 to 20 minutes.
Dude I'm so mad I left for dinner and didn't come back
WOMP WOMP WOOOOOOMP
I am saddened that I missed this game. Truly the worst bit of fandom since I almost missed the Steve Bartman incident that led to the Marlins comeback against the Cubs in 2003. Nevertheless, no matter what I did, the game sadly ended in defeat. But it was not for lack of fandom by the excellent crew of Fish Stripes, including Jigokusabre, Andrew Townes, dgriot, FishNFinz, Jeremy Hulme, and lockwood11j for showing up and sticking around to the end. Tonight, you guys were better than me, and you deserved to watch this amazing spectacle, even if it did end in defeat.
Marlins lose. But this was no ordinary loss. Leave your donations to the swear jar here, a dollar per.
what is happening?
@ATownes_8
by Andrew Townes on Jul 3, 2012 4:25 PM PDT reply actions