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Game 100: San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Padres lead the series 1-0

Fri 07/27 WP: Kip Wells (2 - 3)
LP: Carlos Zambrano (5 - 9)
2 - 7 loss

San Diego Padres
@ Miami Marlins

Saturday, Jul 28, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Ross Ohlendorf vs Nathan Eovaldi

Mostly clear. Winds blowing in from center field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 90.

Complete Coverage >

Sun 07/29 1:10 PM EDT

Welcome to Game 100 of the Miami Marlins season! Before the season began, we all had dreams of being 60-39 by the time Game 100 rolled around, and we would all be getting ready for a dogfight with the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves for the NL East. The reality is that we are still fighting with the Phillies, if only to avoid last place.

But fret not, Marlins fans! There is something to look forward to in tonight's game between the San Diego Padres and the Fish. The Marlins will debut one of their shiny new prospects that they acquired in their trades from earlier this week. Former Los Angeles Dodgers farmhand Nathan Eovaldi will make his first start in a Marlins uniform tonight, and given that this season has given us so little to celebrate about, we will make this occasion a Double Ichthy Points Day! Hurray for new recruits!

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Padres ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.487 4.07 4.09 4.15 Eovaldi Ohlendorf 5.16 4.05 4.91 398

Eovaldi will get his first look as a Fish, but he has spent 91 innings in his career as a major league Dodger, and they have not been bad innings. For his career, he has a 3.96 ERA and 4.19 FIP, so something must be going well for him for those decent numbers to show up. He has done this mostly on the back of preventing home runs; Eovaldi has only let through seven long balls in those 91 innings. In his defense, he does have a decent ground ball rate of 47.1 percent this season, and in the minors, he has consistently gotten 50 percent groundball rates at most levels.

The problem with Eovaldi, as the scouts have mentioned, is his lack of punch-out ability, particularly against lefties. Eovaldi uses a hard fastball, which is currently averaging 94.4 mph on the radar gun, and he complements that with a solid 85 mph slider that can be used as an out pitch. The problem is that he has no third pitch to help him against lefty batters, as non-Josh Johnson sliders are not effective versus lefties and his changeup and curveball are mediocre offerings. It is imperative that pitching coach Randy St. Claire work with Eovaldi while he is in the majors to continually develop that pitch. Since his time here is mostly for show in 2012, with the Marlins having little to play for standings-wise, having Eovaldi tinker with those offerings to find a good third pitch to throw lefties would be a good thing.

Ross Ohlendorf will go for the Padres. The former Pittsburgh Pirates righty is well-known for being very smart, having graduated from Princeton University. Otherwise, he's pretty solidly mediocre.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Emilio Bonifacio .307
2 Donovan Solano .275
3 Jose Reyes .349
4 Carlos Lee .322
5 Greg Dobbs .296
6 Justin Ruggiano .326
7 Logan Morrison .314
8 John Buck .293

The Marlins continue to try various combinations in the outfield with Giancarlo Stanton still nursing his knee injury. With this configuration out there, however, you can be certain at least one easily catchable fly ball will evade the grasp of either (both?) Greg Dobbs or Logan Morrison. The faster LoMo is moved back into the infield, the better for us all.

Notes

- As always, today is Double Ichthy Points Day for tonight's game. That means that all correct picks are worth double the points! Incorrect non-attendance picks are worth -1 points, however, so pick wisely! If there are no Hero of the Game available by game's end or if the option is a bench player, no one will lose points for an incorrect pick. For those of you who have been slow out of the second half gates or are just getting into Ichthyomancy for the second half, this is a perfect game for you to make some headway, so make your picks wisely and pick up those points!

Bold Prediction: Padres def. Marlins 2-1