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Game 69: Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

Red Sox lead the series 2-0

Tue 06/19 WP: Clay Buchholz (8 - 2)
SV: Alfredo Aceves
LP: Mark Buehrle (5 - 8)
5 - 7 loss
Wed 06/20 WP: Felix Doubront (8 - 3)
LP: Ricky Nolasco (6 - 6)
5 - 15 loss

Miami Marlins
@ Boston Red Sox

Thursday, Jun 21, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Fenway Park

Carlos Zambrano vs Daisuke Matsuzaka

Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 90.

Complete Coverage >

Get out the broom breakers, because the Miami Marlins are looking to bust a sweep.

The Fish are looking to avoid a sweep following yet another ugly beatdown last night, this time a 15-5 loss to the Boston Red Sox. This time, the Marlins get a potential weak spot in an already weak Boston rotation, though this pitches has actually been greatly improved this season despite the results. Unfortunately, the Fish are sending out Carlos Zambrano, who has struggled in his last two starts as well and is facing a team that put up 22 runs in two games against the Fish.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Red Sox ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.468 4.24 4.09 3,92 Zambrano Matsuzaka 5.73 3.60 4.38 .460

Two starts ago, Carlos Zambrano had a 2.81 ERA and a FIP closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Two starts later, he bumped his BABIP from .242 to .251 and his ERA went all the way up to 3.92 to complement a 4.09 FIP. Zambrano has been truly awful in his last two starts, both against the Tampa Bay Rays. In those Rays starts, he went just 4 1/3 innings and gave up 11 runs with just four strikeouts and nine walks. In the first game, there was a concern about his back causing the control problems he had not displayed since the start of the year. In the second game, well, if it was the back issue, the six walks did not make anyone feel any more confident about his chances.

The Marlins will get a chance at Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is making his third start since returning from injury. Matsuzaka's peripherals are actually at their best at this point, as evidenced by his 3.60 FIP and 3.50 SIERA. If he can turn himself back into a decent middle-rotation or back-end starter, he should become a useful piece for the Red Sox. His strikeouts are up (23.9 percent, a career high) while his walks are down below his previous career low, so those are both positive signs for him. The Marlins are hoping he reverts to the pre-injury, inconsistently wild Matsuzaka.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Hanley Ramirez .354
3 Giancarlo Stanton .385
4 Logan Morrison .350
5 Greg Dobbs .291
6 Omar Infante .321
7 Scott Cousins .288
8 Gaby Sanchez .322
9 Brett Hayes .277

Bold Prediction: Red Sox def. Marlins 6-4