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Game 53: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

Phillies lead the series 1-0

Fri 06/01 WP: Kyle Kendrick (2 - 4)
SV: Jonathan Papelbon
LP: Mark Buehrle (5 - 5)
4 - 6 loss

Miami Marlins
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Saturday, Jun 2, 2012, 4:05 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Ricky Nolasco vs Cole Hamels

Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from left to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Sun 06/03 1:35 PM EDT

It is a rarity to see the Miami Marlins struggle to pick up a come-from-behind win after so many successful outings in May, but the first game of June turned into a disappointing 6-4 loss against the Philadelphia Phillies. This afternoon's game is going to be much more difficult, as the Marlins will take on one of the best starters on the Phillies rotation in soon-to-be free agent Cole Hamels. In return, the Fish send out one of their biggest strugglers of this early season, Ricky Nolasco, for the afternoon tilt.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Phillies ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.444 4.46 4.12 4.26 Nolasco Hamels 2.43 2.96 3.33 .577

The good news about Ricky Nolasco is that he pitching to his peripherals for a change. The bad news is that his peripherals have gone south alongside his strikeout rate. Nolasco is down to a 12.9 percent strikeout rate, so we are talking approaching Mark Buehrle-type levels of strikeouts. Meanwhille, his walk rate is also up, which is another bad sign that Marlins fans will have to deal with. He will get a chance today versus a depleted Phillies lineup that is getting unexpected assistance from previously medicore hitters.

Hamels is having another monster campaign. His strikeouts are at all time high and he has maintained his walk rate from last season. This is the second straight year that he has shown improvement over his previously consistent peripheral performances, and this could not have come at a better time since he will be a free agent at year's end.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Omar Infante .331
3 Hanley Ramirez .373
4 Giancarlo Stanton .408
5 Logan Morrison .326
6 Justin Ruggiano .315
7 Chris Coghlan .280
8 Brett Hayes .293

I just updated the projected wOBA platoon splits, and I must say that it is never a good thing to see so many hitters around .315 or below in terms of wOBA. Because of the injuries to the Marlins, the bright side is that manager Ozzie Guillen, almost by default, was forced into building the team's proper lineup; this is actually about as close as it gets to being the appropriate lineup against the lefties for the Fish.

Justin Ruggiano gets his first start as a Marlin after being acquired from the Houston Astros and immediately being brought up. He will be in left field and Chris Coghlan will shift to center field. Ruggiano hit a pinch-hit home run last night as part of a comeback attempt by the Fish and went two-for-two overall, so he might see some playing time against lefties now.

Bold Prediction: Phillies def. Marlins 4-1