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Game 67: Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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3 game series vs Red Sox @ Fenway Park

Miami Marlins
@ Boston Red Sox

Tuesday, Jun 19, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Fenway Park

Mark Buehrle vs Clay Buchholz

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 06/20 7:10 PM EDT
Thu 06/21 7:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins have been struggling badly in the month of June, and one of the reasons for those struggles was the work of the Boston Red Sox, who took two of three from the Marlins in a series in Miami earlier in the month. The Fish are visiting Boston looking for payback, and hopefully the team can start a little run to try and close out the month a little better.

Tale of the Tape

Marlins Stat (Rank) Red Sox
.299 (26) wOBA .330 (5)
83 (28) wRC+ 103 (T-4)
4.00 (T-15) ERA 4.30 (25)
3.62 (4) FIP 4.10 (T-20)

The Marlins' offense has really run into some major struggles lately, having dropped to third-worst in baseball after park correction (though I would not put much emphasis on that with the park being brand new and mostly unknown). The Fish were held to just four runs in their last series versus the Tampa Bay Rays, and they were shut out twice and held to three hits in the two losses. They do get to face Boston's struggling pitching staff, but the Fish did not do well against them either.

Stadium: Fenway Park

Area Dimensions (ft)
Left Field 310
Left-Center 379
Center Field 389
Right-Center 380
Right Field 307

Five-Year Run PF*: 1.05Five-Year Home Run PF*: 0.96

*Denotes five-year regressed park factors as calculated by Patriot here

The Fish are visiting the historic Fenway Park once again, and if anything it should be a good visit as always to a beautiful, if a bit old and tarnished, park. I hope to one day make the trek up to Fenway as well, preferably to catch the rare game between these two teams. Hopefully the smaller dimensions of the park can help kick-start this offense.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Red Sox ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.518 3.80 3.93 3.41 Buehrle Buchholz 5.38 5.44 4.16 .477

The Fish will send Mark Buehrle to do his usual work against the Red Sox in a rematch of the second game of the series in Miami. Buehrle did well last time, going seven innings and allowing just two runs with four strikeouts and a walk. Unfortunately, the Marlins could not score enough runs even in that ideal case, so Buehrle may have to be even better, and it is not out of his capability to do so. Look forward to another potential pitcher's duel.

It seems like Clay Buchholz has figured himself out over the last four starts, and he may be starting to pitch up to his potential and talent after a few mediocre years in terms of peripherals. He destroyed the Marlins in his last outing, striking out nine while walking two and allowing a lone solo home run as the only run in his seven innings. The Fish will need a better performance with the bat in order to get away with a victory against a seemingly revitalized Buchholz.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Hanley Ramirez .354
3 Giancarlo Stanton .385
4 Logan Morrison .350
5 Greg Dobbs .291
6 Omar Infante .321
7 Scott Cousins .288
8 Gaby Sanchez .322
9 John Buck .293

This is a very similar lineup to the one the Fish ran against Alex Cobb in their 3-0 defeat on Sunday. It is about as good as the Marlins can throw out, but it is still quite flawed, given that two of the batters in Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez have not performed even close to their expectations while many of the other hitters at the bottom of the order are on what appear to be endless slumps.

Bold Prediction: Red Sox def. Marlins 4-1