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Game 62: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

Marlins lead the series 1-0

Mon 06/11 WP: Josh Johnson (4 - 4)
SV: Heath Bell
LP: Josh Beckett (4 - 7)
4 - 1 win

Boston Red Sox
@ Miami Marlins

Tuesday, Jun 12, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Clay Buchholz vs Mark Buehrle

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 06/13 7:10 PM EDT

Coming off the heels of a solid 4-1 victory, the Miami Marlins are looking to continue their winning ways against the Boston Red Sox. Last night, the victory was due to a strong performance by Josh Johnson, and tonight the Marlins look to continue the god pitching with a solid outing outing by Mark Buehrle. The Red Sox counter the Marlins' offense tonight with Clay Buchholz, who has really struggled thus far in 2012.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Red Sox ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.510 3.87 4.06 3.49 Buehrle Buchholz 5.77 5.65 4.07 .487

Mark Buehrle had a good start in his last outing, having only been tagged for two runs in six innings. He did allow a home run, but he was otherwise his usual self, with three strikeouts and one walk during the outing. This goes to show you once again just how consistent Buehrle has been at being "pretty good." The Marlins paid for almost $15 million a season for that "pretty good," and so far they are getting what they had to expect. If Buehrle continues to pitch at about the level he is at, he will put up a 2.1 WAR season, but chances are the truth will be closer to the upper 2.0 range just because of Buehrle's magical ability to outperform his FIP.

Clay Buchholz has always been a decent pitcher disguised as a better one. In 2010, he won 17 games and had a 2.33 ERA despite middling peripherals (3.67 FIP). Last season, he did the same thing with a 3.48 ERA and a 4.34 FIP. This year, the whole wagon has fallen off, as he has an enormous FIP to match his enormous ERA and is allowing hits on balls in play at a .312 clip versus a career .286 mark. He has also allowed 13 home runs this season after only giving up 10 last year in 82 2/3 innings. The Marlins are hoping those struggles continue tonight.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .351
2 Omar Infante .331
3 Hanley Ramirez .354
4 Giancarlo Stanton .385
5 Logan Morrison .350
6 Gaby Sanchez .322
7 Chris Coghlan .314
8 John Buck .293


- Speaking of Clay Buchholz, friend of Fish Stripes Marc Normandin of SB Nation's Over the Monster discusses Buchholz's recent improvement on changeup velocity and curve and cutter use.

- The Marlins were trying anything to pull off a win last night, and one of those things was opening the roof. This is one of the most ridiculous things that I have ever heard.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Red Sox 4-3