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Game 27: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Miami Marlins
@ San Diego Padres

Saturday, May 5, 2012, 8:35 PM EDT
Petco Park

Mark Buehrle vs Clayton Richard

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

The Miami Marlins have won four games in a row, and despite the oddest of circumstances occurring throughout last night's game, the team is still riding high with a suddenly awakened offense. The team will try again tonight (this afternoon for you west coast Fish Stripers) as the team takes on the San Diego Padres again in what will hopefully be a smoother victory for the Marlins.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Padres ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.507 3.90 4.36 3.34 Buehrle Richard 5.12 5.18 4.50 .440

Mark Buehrle is coming off of his worst start for the Marlins in his last outing; he gave up seven runs (four earned) in five innings. One would look at his strikeouts and walks and think "oh, that looks like a typical Buehrle outing," hut one should note that he gave up 10 fly balls and only five grounders, indicating that the quality of his contact at a batted ball type level was also worse. Of course, you could also tell that from the fact that he gave up two home runs to different Diamondbacks, so there is that. Either way, Buehrle is looking to improve on his last outing, and it seems the key will be to keep balls on the ground for him.

On the opposite side, the Padres will send Clayton RIchard, who has struggled this year after one and a half successful seasons in San Diego after coming back as part of the return in the Jake Peavy trade. Richard is like Buehrle in the sense that he will not miss many bats but he makes up for some of that by getting ground balls and preventing home runs. Unlike Buehrle, he does not have that strong control of his pitches in order to prevent a large number of walks, so the Marlins have the edge there.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Emilio Bonifacio .305
3 Hanley Ramirez .369
4 Austin Kearns .304
5 Omar Infante .331
6 Giancarlo Stanton .394
7 Gaby Sanchez .358
8 John Buck .321

Unfortunately, the Fish do not do a great job against left-handed pitchers, and while Richard averages around 90 mph on his fastball, he does somewhat match that profile of the type of pitcher that has dominated the Marlins so far in 2012.


- Brett Hayes has had some nice PA recently and has earned himself a little more playing time. But John Buck is still the catcher for the Marlins for this year.

Bold Prediction: Padres def. Marlins 2-1