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Game 26: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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3 game series vs Padres @ Petco Park

Miami Marlins
@ San Diego Padres

Friday, May 4, 2012, 10:05 PM EDT
Petco Park

Josh Johnson vs Anthony Bass

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60.

Complete Coverage >

Sat 05/05 8:35 PM EDT
Sun 05/06 4:05 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are coming off their most successful and perhaps pertinent series of this young season. After a disheartening nine-game stretch in which the team managed one win, the Marlins came to San Francisco and handled the Giants in three straight games, delivering a sweep that added some much needed wins to the team's record. Now, they visit the NL West basement-dwelling San Diego Padres over at the only park suppressing offense even more than Marlins Park, the dreaded Petco Park.

Tale of the Tape

Marlins Stat (Rank) Padres
.293 (22) wOBA .283 (27)
81 (25) wRC+ 84 (23)
3.39 (10) ERA 3.25 (5)
348 (5) FIP 3.81 (12)

Both the Marlins and Padres have posted below-average offenses and a decent pitching staff. The ERA and FIP of both teams do seem a bit overstated given their home parks; while it would be difficult to determine just how good the Marlins are in terms of pitching because of their park effects, the effects of Petco are well-known and it is pretty evident from their park-adjusted numbers (ERA- of 97 with lower numbers being better and FIP- of 117) show that the raw numbers are assisted by a heavy helping of park factors.

Stadium: Petco Park

Area Dimensions (ft)
Left Field 334
Left-Center 401
Center Field 396
Right-Center 400
Right Field 322

Five-Year Run PF*: 0.91
Five-Year Home Run PF*: 0.90

*Denotes five-year regressed park factors as calculated by Patriot here

The dimensions of Petco Park do not sound absurd, but they are aided by the fact that the environment of San Diego, particularly the altitude of being below sea level, help to suppress fly balls and run scoring. The park remains the most notoriously pitcher-friendly park in baseball, though the stadium itself is an absolutely beautiful facility that is worth a visit, from what I have heard.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Padres ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.670 2.64 2.16 5.34 Johnson Bass 2.30 2.56 4.24 .468

Here we have two pitchers going in absolute opposite directions. Johnson has struggled with allowing too many hits and, as a result, has a very high ERA despite pretty prototypical peripherals. Bass, on the other hand, has strong primary and secondary numbers but was never projected to be a big name and, as a result, is not projected to be a great player. I mentioned earlier in the week that I am buying Johnson's performance thus far and that it will only take time for him to return to a normal BABIP and subsequently normal ERA numbers.

As for Bass, his stuff is not indicative of a particularly strong or weak pitcher, as he boasts a 93 mph fastball with the typical right-handed slider and changeup. He was not considered much coming out of the minors, and he spent time last season as a reliever for the Padres and did not impress in his run. Really, there is not much known about him, so we will have to see if he is yet another unknown pitcher who ends up owning the Fish offense.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Emilio Bonifacio .305
3 Hanley Ramirez .351
4 Greg Dobbs .290
5 Omar Infante .321
6 Giancarlo Stanton .373
7 Gaby Sanchez .330
8 John Buck .300

Greg Dobbs batting cleanup. Is there anything else that needs to be said about this lineup? And we thought it was bad when Fredi Gonzalez was writing the lineup cards.


- Dex over at SB Nation's Gaslamp Ball reviews the Ernesto Frieri trade that sent a reliever to the Los Angeles Angels for a backup infielder.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Padres 2-0