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Game 48: San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Marlins lead the series 2-1

Thu 05/24 WP: Ryan Vogelsong (3 - 2)
LP: Anibal Sanchez (2 - 3)
7 - 14 loss
Fri 05/25 WP: Dan Jennings (1 - 0)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Tim Lincecum (2 - 5)
7 - 6 win
Sat 05/26 WP: Mark Buehrle (5 - 4)
SV: Randy Choate
LP: Madison Bumgarner (5 - 4)
5 - 3 win

San Francisco Giants
@ Miami Marlins

Sunday, May 27, 2012, 1:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Matt Cain vs Ricky Nolasco

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >


The Miami Marlins are looking to take yet another series from the San Francisco Giants by winning today's fourth and final game against them. The Fish have pulled out a couple of close victories in which the team took a large enough lead but had to survive meltdown performances from Heath Bell in order to escape tight jams. This afternoon, they hope to pull away against one of the toughest pitchers in the National League, while they themselves send one of the coldest starters in baseball.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Giants ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.458 4.33 3.95 4.31 Nolasco Cain 2.94 2.84 3.34 .576

RIcky Nolasco has struggled in his last three starts. Since his start in San Diego, Nolasco has thrown 14 2/3 innings in three starts and has an 8.59 ERA to his name. Now, in his last start, he actually pitched pretty well, recording six strikeouts and allowing four runs in six innings versus the Colorado Rockies. It was the first time this season that Nolasco even reached six strikeouts, which is at least a good sign, as he will really need those strikeouts in his arsenal if he wants to return to being an effective starter for the Fish. Nolasco's last start resulted in his 69th career win, making him the winningest pitcher in Marlins history. Not that that says anything, but I guess it is a nice accomplishment.

Matt Cain has been absolutely dominant for a second straight season. His strikeout rate is at its highest, his walk rate is at its lowest, and his BABIP is still astronomically low. Yes, it is possible that he is the rare pitcher that has significantly above average control on his balls in play, but even without that, the 2012 season has been kind to him. He will take on a Marlins lineup that has been lacking in pop (outside of one major source) and been winning with the big inning.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Omar Infante .321
3 Hanley Ramirez .351
4 Giancarlo Stanton .373
5 Logan Morrison .364
6 Bryan Petersen .315
7 John Buck .300
8 Chris Coghlan .320

This is a pretty prototypical lineup versus right handers, and this is likely the lineup Ozzie Guillen will run out there against righties for the foreseeable future. It incorporates the team's three best outfielders at this point, and two of those outfielders happen to be lefties. With Stanton back properly in the cleanup spot, I have no complaints regarding this lineup as written.

Notes

- In case the game gets into yet another save situation, it sounds as if Guillen will once again go to Heath Bell. Tomorrow, I will tell you why that is a mistake.

Bold Prediction: Giants def. Marlins 5-1