clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Game 45: San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichtyomancy

New, 125 comments

Current Series

4 game series vs Giants @ Marlins Park

San Francisco Giants
@ Miami Marlins

Thursday, May 24, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Ryan Vogelsong vs Anibal Sanchez

Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Fri 05/25 7:10 PM EDT
Sat 05/26 4:10 PM EDT
Sun 05/27 1:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are coming off a good series versus the Colorado Rockies that unfortunately was not any better than that, mostly because of the mid-game struggles of Carlos Zambrano in last night's 8-4 loss to the Rockies. Nevertheless, the Fish won yet another series and have yet to lose a set since they for a nine-game road trip to start the month of May. The team they faced to open up their hot month? Why, it was none other than the San Francisco Giants, whom the Marlins swept in AT&T Park at the start of the month. Tonight, the Giants and Marlins begin a four-game series at Marlins Park, with the Fish looking to repeat their winning ways while the Giants look to exact revenge.

Tale of the Tape

Marlins Stat (Rank) Giants
.305 (20) wOBA .303 (23)
89 (23) wRC+ 91 (21)
3.49 (8) ERA 3.36 (5)
3.42 (4) FIP 3.38 (2)

If I had to make a summary statement from these four numbers, I would declare emphatically that the Marlins and Giants were the same team. Those numbers are so identical in magnitude and placement that it is almost no coincidence. However, the Marlins have the upside of a number of good offensive players who are currently struggling and underperforming projections, whereas everyone on the Giants who is expected to hit is doing so and then some. In fact, it is confusing to see the Giants hitting a .303 wOBA as a team when they have players like Pablo Sandoval (.392 wOBA) and Buster Posey (.372) hitting so well and overachievers like Melky Cabrera (.392) hitting like gangbusters right now.

Stadium: Marlins Park

Area Dimensions (ft)
Left Field 344
Left-Center 386
Center Field 416
Right-Center 392
Right Field 335

The Rockies series added three more games to the tally of early performance in the new Marlins Park, and Jeff Sullivan of Baseball Nation showed here how its early reputation has not matched the results.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Giants ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.539 3.63 2.78 2.32 Sanchez Vogelsong 2.27 3.67 4.26 .466

Anibal Sanchez has been at his absolute best for much of the season thus far. He has made six consecutive starts with exactly seven innings pitched, so he has helped to keep the bullpen rested. He has struck out no less than four in those six starts and has struck out 26.5 percent of the batters he faced during that time. Of course, that stretch includes his fluky awesome start against the Arizona Diamondbacks in which he whiffed 14 batters, but nevertheless, this has been an impressive run thus far. Sanchez's 2.88 FIP during this time period shows that this extended run of success is not entirely fluky, and the Marlins are hoping it will continue.

Ryan Vogelsong is repeating his 2011 performance and then some. His 2.27 ERA looks highly unsustainable in the face of an identical 3.67 FIP from last season and an even worse xFIP and SIERA. Vogelsong has essentially pitched like a back-end starter but gotten the results of an ace, mostly due to a .243 BABIP. Last time he faced the Marlins, though, he let through eight hits in seven innings and walked four batters as well, though the Marlins only put up two runs on him.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Omar Infante .321
3 Hanley Ramirez .351
4 Greg Dobbs .290
5 Giancarlo Stanton .373
6 Logan Morrison .364
7 Brett Hayes .269
8 Chris Coghlan .320

The Marlins are running out this lineup thanks to a number of injuries to outfielders, particularly injuries to Emilio Bonifacio (thumb) and Austin Kearns (hamstring). It seems the team does not want to throw off or confuse Morrison by switching his position nightly, so the club will continue to play him at first base despite the presence of the possibly more defensively inept Greg Dobbs in the lineup. Also, it looks as though the team will try to give Bryan Petersen a rest after he has made every start in center field since Bonifacio went down, as the club is starting Chris Coghlan tonight in center field.

Also, it is official: Giancarlo Stanton will never bat cleanup again. Sorry gang, it's not happening. He clearly can't bat there.

Notes

- Over at McCovey Chronicles, the ever-hilarious Grant Brisbee deems the Marlins "empirically distasteful and everything that is wrong with America" and yet does not draw my ire because he is funny and wrote a retrospective piece about an old friend of the Fish (and enemy of the mid-2000's Giants), Armando Benitez.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Giants 4-2