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Game 43: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Marlins lead the series 1-0

Mon 05/21 WP: Mark Buehrle (4 - 4)
SV: Heath Bell
LP: Jamie Moyer (2 - 4)
7 - 4 win

Colorado Rockies
@ Miami Marlins

Tuesday, May 22, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Juan Nicasio vs Ricky Nolasco

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 05/23 7:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are coming off of a thrilling 7-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies, and with the Rockies struggling as badly as they are, the Fish can smell more blood. Last night's hero was, of course, Giancarlo Stanton and his mammoth grand slam, but the Fish would be wise to avoid another four-run early-game deficit that requires such a mammoth grand slam in order from which to recover. Unfortunately for the Fish, they are sending the team's worst starter right now against the Colorado Rockies' best.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Rockies ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.454 4.37 4.22 4.10 Nolasco Nicasio 4.37 4.02 4.76 .413

The Miami Marlins are sending their coldest starter in Ricky Nolasco up to the mound. Over his last two starts, Nolasco has attempted his fastest regression job ever, as his strong 2.72 ERA with weak underlying peripherals was quickly undermined. Over the last two starts, Nolasco has a 10.38 ERA that has ratcheted his season mark right around where his FIP had been for most of the season. This just goes to show you the power of a statistic like FIP that can spot anomalies in most pitchers. Nolasco's strikeout rate has absolutely plummeted since last season, and even last year his rate was well below his career average. The Marlins really need him to recover well, but for Nolasco, things are looking a little more grim.

Juan Nicasio was having a good rookie year last season before he suffered a brutal neck injury when he was hit by a line drive against the Washington Nationals. For now, however, he seems to have recovered well, as he is pitching quite decently for the Rockies. He has upped his strikeouts along with his walks, but he is still posting a decent FIP and maintains his very good stuff; his fastball is down a bit this season to 93.5 mph, but it is still decently effective alongside his curveball and changeup.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Bryan Petersen .315
3 Hanley Ramirez .351
4 Austin Kearns .291
5 Giancarlo Stanton .373
6 Logan Morrison .364
7 John Buck .300
8 Donnie Murphy .287

It appears as if the Marlins will ride this current Austin Kearns hot streak (.362/.423/.638 in 52 PA) until the well runs dry. There is no sense of consistent managing from Ozzie Guillen, as it seems he is just managing to the next hot streak with only minor rules (like only left fielders are allowed to bat cleanup). Kearns is hitting cleanup despite being a righty facing a right-handed pitcher, while the lineup's best left-handed hitter, Logan Morrison, bats sixth. I'd say "I give up," but I know I will complain about this until I am right at some point. Here is hoping Kearns continues to bat like a superhuman and helps Ozzie prove me wrong.

Notes

- In today's Rockpile, Andrew T. Fisher of Purple Row wonders whether the Rockies could lose 100 games this season.

- I added Bryan Petersen's platoon split projections to the lineup.

- Omar Infante could be back as early as tomorrow, but that's no guarantee. Infante is mourning the passing of his grandfather and is currently in Venezuela.

Bold Prediction: Rockies def. Marlins 6-4