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Game 40: Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

Marlins lead the series 1-0

Fri 05/18 WP: Carlos Zambrano (2 - 2)
SV: Heath Bell
LP: Tony Sipp (0 - 2)
3 - 2 win

Miami Marlins
@ Cleveland Indians

Saturday, May 19, 2012, 4:05 PM EDT
Progressive Field

Anibal Sanchez vs Jeanmar Gomez

Sunny. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Sun 05/20 1:05 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins pulled out a close 3-2 victory over the Cleveland Indians last night, but the team is obviously looking for more this afternoon as they take on the Indians in the second game of their three-game set. Whereas last night, the Fish squeaked by with "manufactured" runs and a poor pitching performance from Carlos Zambrano, the team will look to better dominate their competition today with current top performer Anibal Sanchez. The Indians will look to get their offense going and shut down that mediocre-performing Fish offense with another ground ball specialist.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Indians ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.548 3.56 2.46 2.28 Sanchez Gomez 3.75 3.64 4.89 .400

The Marlins have to be very happy with Anibal Sanchez thus far this season. He has posted the highest strikeout rate of his career with very similar whiff rates compared to last season. He also has his highest ground ball rate of his career, which is helping him suppress home runs as well. He is benefiting from a decreased BABIP, but even with all that regression, the Marlins will definitely have a strong starter for the rest of 2012. Sanchez may be the team's ace at this point.

Jeanmar Gomez will get the start for the Indians. He is yet another starter in a long line of Indians starters who use a distinct lack of strikeouts and walks and above average ground ball rates to get outs. Like Derek Lowe and Justin Masterson from this season and Fausto Carmona from years past, Gomez has forced a strong number of ground balls (53 percent this season) and has mostly tried to get balls in play rather than strikeouts (career 12.5 percent strikeout rate). That might benefit the Marlins, as they have a number of players who are sluggers, and sluggers generally benefit against ground ball pitchers (ground ballers allow more home runs per fly ball on average).


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Jose Reyes .350
2 Omar Infante .321
3 Hanley Ramirez .351
4 Greg Dobbs .290
5 Giancarlo Stanton .373
6 Logan Morrison .364
7 Gaby Sanchez .330
8 John Buck .300
9 Bryan Petersen ---

The only change from last night's lineup is that Emilio Bonifacio is out of the lineup, as he is day-to-day with a sprained thumb suffered during a steal attempt last night. Also, the Marlins are giving time off to Giancalo Stanton, who is the designated hitter in this afternoon's lineup. Logan Morrison will resume his usual position in left field, while Dobbs will be moved to right field. I know that we have seen Stanton struggle a good deal in the outfield in 2012, but I would never claim that Stanton is, at any time, worse than Morrison in the outfield, so I will presume that this will be used for the purposes of rest. I do not like our outfield's defensive prowess today, however.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Indians 4-2