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Game 18: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Miami Marlins
@ New York Mets

Thursday, Apr 26, 2012, 1:10 PM EDT
Citi Field

Ricky Nolasco vs Jon Niese

Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 55.

Complete Coverage >

Get out the broom breakers folks, because the Miami Marlins are looking to do some sweep-busting this afternoon

The Fish are looking to avoid a winless road trip and their fifth straight loss of the season when they battle the New York Mets today in the final game of their three-game set. The enigma Ricky Nolasco will take the mound for the Fish, and he will be countered by the Mets' newest long-term signee, Jon Niese. The pitching matchup is rife for yet another low-scoring game, as neither of these offenses have looked particularly strong in this series.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Mets ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.455 4.36 4.02 3.93 Nolasco Niese 2.89 2.92 4.21 .471

The matchup today looks like a weaker one on paper than the one's we have had recently, but both pitchers have performed decently thus far in the season. Ricky Nolasco's strikeout numbers have dropped and his walk rate has risen, but he has once again kept homers to a decent pace and kept his numbers acceptable thus far. With a swinging strike rate (percentage of swinging strikes out of total pitches) of 9.4 percent that matches his career mark, you have to suspect that he will get his strikeouts eventually and that, right now, we are looking at a small sample size anomaly.

The Mets counter with Niese, who signed a five-year contract extension at the start of the month. So far, the Mets have to be happy with their investment, as Niese has mowed down hitters for his highest strikeout rate of his career thus far. While his ERA has been bad over the last two years, his peripherals and FIP have always been good, so this is not that surprising.


Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Jose Reyes .362
2 Emilio Bonifacio .305
3 Hanley Ramirez .375
4 Logan Morrison .338
5 Giancarlo Stanton .401
6 Omar Infante .317
7 Gaby Sanchez .366
8 John Buck .321

The Marlins lineup has failed to score runs for their starters, and that thus far has been a major problem. In the four games thus far in the road trip, the Fish have scored a grand total of four runs and suffered losses in all games. The team has been unable to deliver at the plate, and their recent cold stretch (.148/.221/.234 on the road trip) has them batting just .235/.295/.366 as a team. This line is good for an OPS that ranks 11th in the National League. The team has also scored runs at a pace eclipsing only the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League. All told, the team needs to score more runs if they want to find success, and it may be difficult today with Niese pitching well.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Mets 2-1