This is about like all of the projections trying to predict the Marlins seasons, it comes up with a losing season. Granted there are some who predict they will break even. However, back to the good prof's predictions.
The Amazin' Mets will come in third in the NL East, according to Bruce Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Bukiet bases his predictions on a mathematical model he developed in 2000, one that computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. For this season, Bukiet has refined his algorithm slightly, incorporating a more realistic runner advancement model. Whatever that is.
The professor claims to have beaten the odds in six of the eight years he's been using the model. According to his predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in the National League, with the Atlanta Braves taking the wild-card slot.
Don't have the time to research his past predictions where the Marlins are concerned. Maybe he got them right, but I sincerely doubt it. I would be flabbergasted to learn he had the Marlins in the preseason winning the Wild Card in 2003. But maybe he did.
My guess is that his model is about like all models, suffering from omitted variables basis along with structural flaws. Had he had the proper equation, and nobody does, and estimated it with something like the likelihood function, something I have found to be very hard to estimate, he may have picked up more explanatory power where teams like the Marlins are concerned. Be it known, I have no idea what his methodology is, so I could be flat out wrong about it. But whatever the case, assuming the Marlins don't suffer major key injuries, I think his analysis is short changing the Fish.
Anyways, here is what he came up with for the NL East.
NL East: Phillies – 90-72; Braves – 88-74; Mets – 82-80; Marlins – 76-86; Nationals – 72-90
Let's just say, I'm not buying the results.