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Florida Marlins 2009 early prediction

The Replacement Level Yankees every year breakout their calculators and try to predict how the season will unfurl.  This year is no different.

After running 100 trials and using the Hardball Times projections on the teams present rosters, this is what they came up with for the NL East in the 2009 season.


Going off their projections the Marlins will go from the third best record in franchise history, in terms of wins, to their worst finish since 1999.  Also, they have no chance of winning the division and the team making it into the playoffs via the wildcard will be a statistical fluke.  Who knew that Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Kevin Gregg, Mike Jacobs, Joe Nelson and Matt Treanor meant so much.

I have no idea what methodology was used to produce the results, but surely, there is no way on the face of the planet the Marlins will backslide that much.  I'm guessing they are doing some version of the Pythagorean Record.  But I really don't know.

Let's just say, I'm not buying.

But there is nothing wrong with playing with numbers, it gives the folks who play with them something do and gives people like me something to talk about in the offseason.

But in the Replacement Level Yankees' defense, they did put forth a disclaimer:

There’s still a lot that can change over the next few months, so don’t take these too seriously.

And that we won't.

I will say this: I'm thinking about stealing their tag line.