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Still some questions about Cameron Maybin

Peter Bendix of Fan Graphs, Roto division, brings up some interesting points about Cameron Maybin.

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

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While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

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In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed

Read the whole article for his complete analysis. I will say this: I don't disagree with it.  

Maybin is so young it makes hard to project what he will do in the upcoming season.  He has natural power but the key will be if he can make solid contact.  I think early on in the majors he benefited from the fact that major league pitchers are normally around the plate, as opposed to their minor league counterparts.  The other aspect is that no one, roughly no one, had seen him hit before his 32 AB debut.  Now, they have.

Generally when teams have seen an opposing player taking his swings at the plate, they will find any hole in his swing, should it exist, and exploit it.  That is what they do.

It is one of the things that causes the so-called "sophomore slump". the opposition now has you on video tape and their highly paid professionals break down every strength and weakness in your swing.

Of course, Maybin may end up being like Vlad, and it doesn't matter where the pitcher throws the ball.  But I'm guessing he is going to need more plate discipline in his approach and come 2009 he will be in for a crash course about adjusting to the majors.

There is no doubt the young man has skills, but that doesn't mean an education isn't in his future.