As promised. we will take a look at the Bill James' projections for the 2009 Florida Marlins pitchers. The list doesn't contain everyone, but it was the one sent to me by ACTA Sports and I'm glad to have it.
| Pitcher | Age | G | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | BR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gregg | 31 | 64 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 25 | 55 | 12.4 | 3.71 |
| Mark Hendrickson | 35 | 38 | 99 | 113 | 12 | 30 | 57 | 13.2 | 4.67 |
| Josh Johnson | 25 | 21 | 139 | 139 | 10 | 58 | 119 | 12.9 | 3.92 |
| Logan Kensing | 26 | 43 | 46 | 41 | 6 | 25 | 45 | 13.5 | 4.33 |
| Matt Lindstrom | 29 | 68 | 61 | 64 | 4 | 30 | 54 | 14.3 | 4.51 |
| Andrew Miller | 24 | 27 | 114 | 118 | 9 | 61 | 97 | 14.8 | 4.78 |
| Joe Nelson | 34 | 68 | 64 | 51 | 8 | 30 | 72 | 11.8 | 3.58 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 26 | 32 | 205 | 207 | 28 | 52 | 176 | 11.8 | 3.98 |
| Scott Olsen | 25 | 32 | 199 | 205 | 29 | 80 | 153 | 13.1 | 4.58 |
| Renyel Pinto | 26 | 45 | 40 | 35 | 4 | 25 | 39 | 14.2 | 4.34 |
| Arthur Rhodes | 39 | 66 | 38 | 34 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 11.6 | 3.29 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 25 | 25 | 131 | 131 | 14 | 58 | 110 | 13.5 | 4.36 |
| Doug Waechter | 28 | 39 | 44 | 54 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 14.3 | 5.65 |
Pitchers are a hard bred to project, hitters are much easier. One of the reasons has to do with the fact, that in all of sports, pitchers are required to perform an explosive motion that is unnatural to the body. Sure there are pitchers like Greg Maddux who have a prefect throwing motion and avoid extensive wear and tear. But for every Greg Maddux there are 1,000 arms of young pitchers lying in the ditch somewhere.
And judging by the fact the Marlins are constantly running a shuttle to Alabama, just like every other team in the majors, it makes it hard to guess, excuse me, project, how they will do in the future. But you have to admire those who try, and Bill James is one of the best.
Some thoughts about the projections.
- I will be shocked if Gregg opens the season with the Marlins. Not that he couldn't be a positive addition to bullpen, it is just that he will cost too much.
- Hendrickson at the end of the season did a good job at long relief out of the pen. As a starter, not so much. He is also one I don't expect to see wearing teal come 2009.
- The algorithms James is employing really have no idea how to project a player coming off injury, i.e. Johnson and Sanchez. Which is completely understandable. Johnson should log more than 139 innings pitched. Sanchez is a wild-card, since he is still recovering from shoulder surgery and who knows how long it will take to regain his form of old, if he can. Hopefully neither one of them will pitch more, or at least not much more, than 170 innings next season.
- Nolasco is gold, by the projections. I have no problem with that other than the point that Ricky threw 212.1 innings last season and his previous highest was in 2005 for the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx where he pitched 161.2 innings. It will be interesting to see how his body reacts. If his body is willing, the boy knows how to pitch.
- Olsen, is just Olsen. He puts up solid numbers and eats up innings, which is something that is strangely undervalued. Whether Scott stays with the club, only the offseason will tell.
- Maybe the most impressive projection is that of Arthur Rhodes. I would love to have him back but he may have pitched himself out of our price range. Good late innings specialist aren't cheap.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, yours may vary.
Tomorrow, the hitters.