clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Early Projections for 2007

New, 5 comments

The Replacement Level Yankees did their early projections 100 times for the 2007 season and it looks none too good.

The first column is wins.
The second is losses.
The third is runs for.
The fourth is runs against.
The fifth is Division titles in 100 trials.
The sixth is Wild card in 100 trials.

The Mets being the projected winners - no problem.  Atlanta second - okay.  But the Nationals being third ahead of the Phillies and the Marlins, that I have a problem with.

What this is saying is the Marlins have a 2 percent chance of winning the division and no chance at the wild card.  While the Nationals have a 13.5 percent chance of wining the division and a 4 percent chance of taking home the wild card.  What is most interesting is that the Phillies have a projected worse record than the Nationals, albeit small, but a better percentage chance to win the division and the wild card.

Guys, I think you may want to recheck your algorithm.  These outcomes don't seem plausible to me.  But should the Nationals finish third ahead of the Phillies and the Marlins, I will most definitely apologize.