clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Rookie Pitchers under the Microscope - We Hope

New, 2 comments

The organization is going to keep a careful watch on the rookie hurlers.

Going with four rookies in the rotation has the Marlins closely monitoring innings.
Ideally, the organization is eyeing its first-year starters to log between 180-200 innings for the season.

---

Olsen has logged 126 2/3 innings, with Johnson at 120 2/3 and Nolasco at 109 1/3. Sanchez's situation is slightly different. Before being called up in late June, the right-hander threw 85 2/3 innings at Double-A Carolina. He now has 52 1/3 innings with the Marlins, giving him 138 total innings.

In the case of Sanchez, work is work, it doesn't matter where the innings were logged: Majors, Minors, it makes no difference.

According to the analysis of Lee Sinins and Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

...while somewhat arbitrary, the 175-inning threshold seems to be a point where fatigue sets in for almost all pitchers. Young pitchers usually have not reached this threshold in their careers and the first test of this level often results in injury, massive failure, or a survivor effect.

None of the Marlins rookie starters have reached the 175-inning threshold in their careers.

Compare that to a year ago when Sanchez tossed 136 innings in the Minor Leagues.

As prospects in 2005, Nolasco compiled 161 2/3 innings, compared to 152 for Johnson and 100 2/3 for Olsen. Of Johnson's total, 12 1/3 were in September as a callup for the Marlins. Olsen had 20 1/3 innings with the Marlins before being injured last July.

I truly hope the team will watch their progress with a concerned eye and err to the side of caution.  When they pass 150-innings it is time to keep an extremely close watch on the starters.  If mechanics breakdown or velocity drops off, fatigue may have set-in and injuries may not be far behind

The young Marlins starters are gold and keeping them healthy is where Kranitz is going to earn his money down the stretch.