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An Estimation of the 2007 Marlins Payroll

MLB Trade Rumors went to Cot's Baseball Contracts and put together their estimation of the 2007 Marlins contractual obligations.

C - Miguel Olivo - $0.7MM
C - Matt Treanor - $0.38MM
1B - Mike Jacobs - $0.38MM
2B - Dan Uggla - $0.38MM
SS - Hanley Ramirez - $0.38MM
3B - Miguel Cabrera - $6MM
IF - Alfredo Amezaga - $0.38MM
LF - Josh Willingham - $0.38MM
CF -
RF - Jeremy Hermida - $0.38MM
OF - Joe Borchard - $0.38MM
OF - Cody Ross - $0.38MM

SP - Dontrelle Willis - $7MM
SP - Josh Johnson - $0.38MM
SP - Scott Olsen - $0.38MM
SP - Anibal Sanchez - $0.38MM
SP - Ricky Nolasco - $0.38MM

RP - Taylor Tankersley - $0.38MM
RP - Sergio Mitre - $0.38MM
RP - Logan Kensing - $0.38MM
RP - Yusmeiro Petit - $0.38MM
RP - Renyel Pinto - $0.38MM
RP - Randy Messenger - $0.38MM
RP - Jason Vargas - $0.38MM

The above required an estimate of Willis, Cabrera and Olivo's salary since all three are arbitration eligible.  The Willis and Cabrera numbers are probably pretty close but I think he lowballed Olivo.  Olivo could get closer to $1 MM in the arbitration process.

But let's go with his numbers for now: the above add up to $21.3MM and that is for 23 players.  There is little doubt that the Marlins will have a full 25 on the 25 man roster.  So the monetary number will increase if none of the higher price players are traded.

Also the players he has slated for the bullpen could be questioned, since some will be coming off injuries and others bad years.  But if you substitute for Resop for Vargas, say, the price is still the same.  So let's leave this alone for the time being.

What I would like to look at is this: the club by all indications will try to keep next year's payroll under $24MM.  Should the organization decide to bring in a center fielder or help for the bullpen, it may have trade one of the higher price players.  If that is the case, first on the block will be Olivo.  Miguel improved at catching as the season went on but his work at the plate was a bit substandard.  In fact he set a record:

According to STATS, LLC's Jim Henzler, Olivo became the first player to finish a season with at least 100 strikeouts and fewer than 13 walks. Olivo had nine walks (four intentional) and 103 whiffs. LF Rolando Roomes walked just 13 times against 100 strikeouts for the 1989 Reds; he tied C John Bateman's mark of 13 walks against 103 strikeouts for the 1963 Houston Colt .45s.

If the team does indeed make a move to bring in a center fielder or some relief help, as expected, it is possible that if Olivo isn't traded he will be non-tendered and Olivo will find himself on his fifth team since 2004.  Non-tendered is when a club doesn't offer an arbitration eligible player a contract and thus the player becomes a free agent.  I believe the last day to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players this year is January 18, 2007.

We should know more after the GM meetings in November.