While driving home this evening, I caught some of the XM 175 Baseball Show with Casey Stern and Kevin Kennedy. They discussed all the rumors of the day. Stern acknowledged that Andy Pettitte had turned down the Yankees 1 year $10 million offer, and was curious as to why, since Pettitte has publicly stated he wants to return to the Yankees, or retire.

Well, Kevin Kennedy, who is linked into the goings with the Dodgers 24/7/365, stated "he wouldn't be surprised the Dodgers were talking behind the scenes to sign Pettitte."

This is not the first time Pettitte has been linked to the Dodgers, as earlier this winter, Joe Torre spoke with Pettitte, but came away from the conversation saying he felt Pettitte would go back and sign with the Yankees. Well, now that he has rejected the Yankees one year offer, maybe he is having 2nd thoughts??

Joel Sherman of the NY Post writes that there are strong indications from the Yankees that they may have lowered their original offer to Pettitte, thus the reason why Pettitte rejected it. He also writes that the Yankees are tightening the purse strings after the Teixeira deal, and are prepared to have a battle for the 5th starter slot in psring training between Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

The Dodgers are looking for a veteran presence in their rotation, and who better than Pettitte to groom young pitchers Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw through the rigors of playoff baseball?

Well, it appears the Dodgers want a veteran presence in their bullpen also. Rumors floated late last night that the race for Trevor Hoffman is now down to two teams-the Brewers and the Dodgers. Here is what Hoffman's agent had to say to MLB.com:

"We're talking parameters of a deal with both teams," Rick Thurman of the Beverly Hills Sports Council told MLB.com in a telephone interview. "In the next 24-to-48 hours I think we'll have something done. If we don't have a deal done we'll have a pretty solid idea of where he's going. But I think we'll have a deal done."

Hoffman is known to want to stay on the west coast should he sign anywhere this offseason, but wants to close wherever he signs. Ned Colletti and Joe Torre sure do like experience over youth.

The second of the four baseball/stathead books I decided to read this year-The Hardball Times Annual- came in the mail this week, and here are a few nuggets of information that could be helpful to fantasy/roto players in 2009:

• Daisuke Matsuzaka  FIP OF 4.11 (a better measure, than ERA, of how well a pitcher performs, regardless of how well his infielders performs) was 1.21 higher than his ERA-2.90. Can the infield continue to bail out al those walks?
• Grady Sizemore led the AL with 122 Base Runs (a measure of runs created adjusted for Avg. with RISP and ballpark). You know who led the NL.
• Armondo Galarraga's FIP-4.95 was > a run higher than his ERA-3.73.
• Carlos Gomez had a .223 GPA in 614 PAs. Is the speed and defense worth it? To fantasy players-YES.
• Derek Jeter hit more ground balls than anyone in baseball-58% of his PAs.
• Andy Pettite's FIP-3.74 was much better than his ERA-4.54. Did you know that Ned?
• Mike Napoli struck out 25% of his plate appearances, but he walked 15% of them, and hit a fly ball on 52% of his batted balls, where 255 of them resulted in a HR. Will this continue? Bill James seems to think so.
• Jack Cust walked or struck out in 52% of his PAs, and 31% of his outfiled flys resulted in a HR.
• Brad Zeigler's FIP-3.67 was >2 1/2 runs higher than his ERA-1.06. He benefited from 23 double plays in his 60 innings pitched.
• Grant Balfour struck out 37% of the hitters he faced-by far the highest in the majors. Why isn't he the Rays closer?
• The Rays D may be better than the Buccaneers D! The following Tampa relievers had FIPs of at least a run higher than their ERA-Grant Balfour, Jay Howell, Dan Wheeler, and Troy Percival.
• Milton Bradley led the AL with a .327 GPA. No wonder the Cubs wants him so much.
• Shaun Marcum's FIP-4.52 was > 1 run higher than his ERA-3.39.

With the news yesterday that Pat Burrell signed a 2 yr $16 million deal with the Rays, and the Cubs signing of OFer Milton Bradley to a 3 yr $30 million deal, the market for Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu is getting smaller and smaller. In addition, there is talk that Jason Giambi may return to the A's.

What we know now is that Manny Ramirez has two suitors-the Dodgers and supposedly the Giants. My take, Boras sees what Burrell and Bradley got today, and immediately calls Ned Colletti asking if the 2 yr $45 million offers is still on the table. The Giants are looking for a corner infielder, and probably won't get into a bidding war with the Dodgers. And they have been there, done that with Barry Bonds and his baggage.

Adam Dunn just lost one of his suitors with the Cubs signing Bradley. The Dodgers, National, Orioles and Mariners are the teams still in on Dunn. Should LA sign Ramirez, Dunn may settle to hook back up with the Nationals, or go DH in the American League with the Orioles or Mariners. Maybe the Yankees get involved to DH, but they already have a surplus of OFers to take on the DH role.

Bobby Abreu lost two suitors today with the Rays signing Burrell, and the A's closing in on Giambi. What's the market for Abreu-the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees and possibly the Mets. He will play somewhere this year, but it may be on a one year deal.

It appears that Ned Colletti is waiting out the market on Manny with the hope that Dunn and Abreu sign elsewhere, maybe one of them with the Giants, to see how fast Boras comes begging for the original 2 year offer.

But should Dunn or Abreu sign this week, Colletti will have a decision to make. Does he take a chance that Manny spurs his offer and signs with the Giants, and he is left with Juan Pierre playing LF everyday? Someone will blink. Who will blink first?

The second of the four baseball/stathead books I decided to read this year-The Hardball Times Annual- came in the mail this week, and here are a few nuggets of information that could be helpful to fantasy/roto players in 2009:

• 64% of the ground balls allowed by Randy Johnson resulted in outs, the lowest in the majors for starting pitchers-does it get any better with Sandoval, Renteria, and Velez/Burriss?
• Carlos Marmol struck out 33% of the batters he faced. He should be a top tier closer in 2009.
• Rich Harden struck out 31% of the batters he faced, while in Chicago and 30% of the batters while in Oakland. Harden would make a good closer should he not be able to withstand the rigors of starting every 5 days.
• Javier Vazquez's FIP-3.81 (tells you how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how his infiled performed behind him) was almost a run lower than his ERA-4.67. His infield in Atlanta might help him achieve a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009.
• Edwin Encarnacion hit a fly ball on 50% of his batted balls (where he didn't strike out or walk), but 22% of those were infield fly balls. A 50% flyball rate is a very good sign of developing power. Can he be a 30 HR hitter in 2009?
• Chris Dickerson struck out 29% of his plate appearances. Thus the reason for the Willy Taveras signing? Dickerson did hit .304-.413-.608 though. So why did they sign Taveras again?
• Speaking of Taveras, he had the lowest GPA (Gross Production Average-a better measure of OPS adjusted for ballpark) of .195 of any regular in the majors. Maybe that will change in Cincy? Doubt it.
• Sleeper Alert-Andrew Miller's FIP-3.96 was almost 2 runs lower than his ERA-5.87, representing the largest ERA-FIP differential in the majors among pitchers with >60 innings pitched. Keep him on your sleeper lists for 2009.
• Andre Ethier led the majors with a 27% line drive rate. He can become a 25-30 HR hitter if he can hit more fly balls.
• Matt Kemp disappointed some fantasy owners by htting only 18 HRs in 2008. Only 13% of his flyballs resulted in HRs. Should he increase that to 20%, with his flyball rate staying the same, he can reach 30 HRs in 2009.
• 7 of the 8 hitters in the Brewers starting lineup struck out at least 98 times in 2008. Maybe it is time to deal one or two of those guys?
• Johan Santana's FIP-3.51 was almost a run higher than his ERA-2.53. He can thank Mr. Reyes and Mr. Wright, but his ERA may be more indicative of his 2009 performance moving into the new ballpark according to THT.
• Jonathan Sanchez's FIP-3.90 was more than a full run better than his ERA-5.01. Will his ERA get any better with Sandoval and Renteria on the left side of the infield?
• Albert Pujols-what more can you say about the 2008 MVP? His GPA was .379, he k'd only 8% of his PAs (lowest among power hitters by far), and he hit more ground balls-40% than flyballs-37%.

I will post the AL Edition over the next day or two.

I timed my trip to the grocery store just right and caught Lee Hacksaw Hamilton opening to his 3pm show this afternoon. He didn't have much today, but here they are:

• The Dodgers interest in Manny Ramirez, but said the offer was 2 yrs $45 million, with a 3rd option year, bringing the total contract value to $70 million.
• The Giants are also interested in Manny-more Boras?
• The Dodgers are looking to deal Andruw Jones and are willing to take on $4.5 million of his 2009 salary. With his '09 salary at $5 million, his cost would be the cost of a minor leaguer.
• The Braves and Orioles have interest in Andruw Jones.
• While talking Dodgers, he stated they need a closer, a setup man, and pitchers to replace Park, Proctor and Beimel. 

I think Lee was just looking for callers because the Dodgers bullpen may be set with Wade-Kuo-Broxton taking care of the 7th-9th innings. They also have left Scott Elbert and potential longman James McDonald to fill out the pen. But, there have been rumors that LA is interested in bringing in closer Trevor Hoffman.

The Andruw Jones rumor really caught my ear. How many teams will deal for a former gold glove CFer on the rebound at just above minor league minimum salary of $500,000? He mentions the Braves, and I can see why. Their current outfield is made up of Matt Diaz, Gregor Blanco, Jeff Franceour, Josh Anderson, Greg Norton and former prospect Brandon Jones. Should the Braves take a chance on Andruw Jones?

Corpas or Street? didn't Street have issues with reduced velocity and lose his job last year?? Corpas did also.

Roxgirl-who would you prefer to close in Colorado?

Does Spilborgh start in CF?

Seth Smith in LF? Is he a 20-20 hitter? or does Ian Stewart play Left Field with Garrett Atkins more than likely returning?

Does Spilz leadoff for the Rockies? what do you project for Spilborgh? 20-20 reachable?

Is Helton going to be healthy in 2009? or will they go with Atkins at 1b and Stewart at 3b?

When does Fowler get his chance? Will Spilz be able to hold him off in AAA for another year?

TJ Simers from the LA Times reported last evening that the LA Dodgers are working on a deal to "unload" Andruw Jones and save the team $12 million. Jones is scheduled to make $15 million in 2009, and is in the last year of his contract. How the Dodgers save $12 million is the big question. According to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick, here are a few possibilities:

The Dodgers are hoping to spread that money over more years. It could be done through an extension, which would move a chunk of money off the 2009 payroll. There also is the possibility of a deferred buyout, either to facilitate a trade or allow Jones to become a free agent.

The money saved will be used in an offer to Manny Ramirez.  If this "deal" happens, it would be a very smart, and creative, deal to say the least. To move salary from one of the worst contracts ever to Manny Ramirez would be quite the coup for Ned Colletti. 

This move could be in response to the Troy Renck article in yesterday's Denver Post stating the Giants are "quietly and aggressively" pursuing Manny. Boras, who is also the agent for Jones, more than likely orchestrated this deal to allow Jones to be traded, as the reduced 2009 salary would make him more attractive to potential trade partners.

The $64,000 question is the size and term of the contract offered to Manny. I imagine Ned will attempt to stick to his guns and keep the contract short in return for a higher annual  salary....2 years and $50 million could get a deal done. ESPN's Buster Olney has written several times about how much money will keep Manny motivated throughout the season, especially given the state of the free agent market which is as frozen as the credit market was in the 4th quarter of 2008.

About one week after the World Series was over, I completed a trade with Eric's brother in a NL only 4x4 roto league. The deal went like this:

I traded a $10 S1 Willy Taveras and Arizona minor league pitcher Jarrod Parker for a $10 S1 Ricky Nolasco.

I made the deal with the thought that Taveras would not get regular playing time next year, and Parker is about 2 years from the majors. I traded for Nolasco as I feel he broke out in 2008, and has become an ace-type pitcher. In addition, I lost Chad Billingsley as I did not offer him a long-term contract at the beginning of the 2008 season, and I feel I have enough speed on my roster with Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Ryan Spilborgh and Pirates prospect Andrew McCutchen, who is expected to see time in the majors in 2009.

Now that the Reds have signed Taveras, I am wondering if I gave up too much for the Nolasco breakout year. Should I have waited to see where Taveras signed before dealing him?

After going through the Bill James 2009 hitter projections from his annual handbook, there are a few that stood out-here they are for AL hitters:

• Hank Blalock-22 HR, 83 RBI
• Miguel Cabrera-37 HR, 130 RBI, .316 Avg., .967 OPS
• Nelson Cruz-28 HR, 84 RBI, 18 SBs
• Chris Davis-40 HR, 118 RBI, .951 OPS-WOW!
• Jacoby Ellbury--52 SBs
• Carlos Gomez-8 HR, 63 RBI, 41 SBs
• Adam Jones-15 HR, 65 RBI, 12 SBs
• Matt Laporta-24 HR, 86 RBI, .252 Avg.
• Evan Longoria-37 HR, 116 RBI-MVP??
• Mike Napoli-31 HR, 85 RBI, 11 SBs-WOW WOW!!
• Alexei-Ramirez-24 HR, 97 RBI, 14 SBs
• Travis Snider-19 HR, 83 RBI
• Taylor Teagarden-25 HR, 61 RBI
• BJ Upton-14 HR, 65 RBI, 38 SBs- who's the better Upton?
• Matt Weiters-24 HR, 85 RBI, .311 ACG, .932 OPS-AL ROY?

Which of these projections is more realistic?