Game 2 of the NLCS; Game 1 of the ALCS. enjoy the baseball, enjoy the weekend.

if you're not already using SB Nation's postseason portal, you're really missing out. the affiliated blogs (Over the Monster, DRays Bay, The Good Phight, and True Blue LA) are all top-notch. simon says check them out.

this series features VEB’s adopted team, the tampa bay rays. in looking over their roster, i’m surprised at how few truly homegrown players they feature. what tampa has done is, in some ways, even more impressive than growing their own --- they’ve poached cheap young players from other organizations and knit them into a winning roster that feels homegrown:

pos	player	how acquired	age	yrs to fr. ag’cy
c	d navarro	trade (dodgers) for m hendrickson	24	3
1b	c pena	free agent	30	2
2b	a iwamura	free agent	29	2
ss	j bartlett	trade (twins), partial for d young	28	3
3b	e longoria	homegrown	23	7
lf	c crawford	homegrown	27	2
cf	b upton	homegrown	24	4
rf	g gross	trade (mil) for j butler	28	3
dh	c floyd	free agent	35	1
sp1	j shields	homegrown	26	6
sp2	s kazmir	trade (mets) for v zambano	24	4
sp3	m garza	trade (twins) for d young	24	5
sp4	a sonnanstine	homegrown	25	5

if they want to, the rays will be able to run most of this same team out there in 2011. yet just 3 everyday players and 2 starting pitchers came up through the ranks w/ this franchise, and nearly the whole bullpen comes from outside the organization. i’m not counting some key role players, including rocco baldelli (who starts against left-handers) and ben zobrist; david price will probably be in next year’s rotation, and reid brignac may join the starting lineup at shortstop. so they’re becoming more homegrown, rather than less.

in that respect, tampa bay is aping (roughly) the model that made the kansas city royals so good back in the 1970s. the royals (for those of you who are old enough to recall) got good with other teams’ young players --- amos otis (snagged from the mets), john mayberry (astros), hal mcrae (reds), freddie patek (pirates), darrell porter (brewers) --- and then became a dynasty by rolling in homegrown players like george brett, frank white, willie wilson, and al cowens. beginning in the late 1970s, the royals churned out boatloads of mound talent --- dennis leonard, steve busby, paul splitorrf, rich gale, and dan quisenberry in the 1970s, then bret saberhagen, danny jackson, mark gubicza, et al all in the 1980s. the result: 15 winning seasons, 7 playoff appearances, 2 pennants, and a championship in their first 21 years of existence.

surprisingly, the red sox rely on homegrown talent at least as much as the rays do. they drafted and groomed four of their starters --- at 1b (youklis), 2b (pedroia), ss (lowrie), and cf (ellsbury) --- and acquired a fifth (varitek) from the seattle farm system; he has spent his entire big-league career in boston. they gave 60 starts to homegrown pitchers during the season this year, and the back end of their bullpen for the playoffs (masterson and papelbon) is completely homegrown.

the series is a battle of ballparks, as much as anything. tropicana field was the al’s 4th lowest-scoring park, with an average run total 5 percent lower than average; fenway was the league’s 3d-highest scoring, with an average run total 7 percent above the norm. so the essential questions might be: a) will the red sox offense (2d in the league) be able to score at the trop, and b) will the rays’ pitchers (2d in the league in run prevention) be able to put up zeros at the fens? during the regular season, the answer to question A was no: boston hit just .216 / .303 / .365 at the trop and scored 33 runs in 9 games, or 3.7 per game; the sox went 1-8 in those games. the answer to question B was also no: tampa bay pitchers gave up 6 runs a game in fenway and allowed the red sox to hit .289 / .388 / .452; the sox went 7-2 at home. the rays have 4 games at home, which yields a not-insignificant advantage, and i don’t think they will be intimidated by the red sox: they won both of the head-to-head series played in september, when the division title (and october home-field advantage) was still very much up for grabs.

shields, who will start game 5 (if nec) at fenway, lasted a total of just 4.2 innings in his 2 starts there this season and gave up 11 runs, almost singlehandedly losing both games; but the sox could hardly touch him at the trop, scoring just 2 runs against him in 15+ innings. kazmir was vulnerable in either location --- he only had one decent start in 4 tries vs the red sox this year. the only tampa starting pitcher who thrived at fenway this year was andy sonnanstine; sure enough, he’ll start game 4. if it comes down to game 7, matt garza will face jon lester; garza had a 4.50 era vs the red sox this year, while lester dominated the rays (3-0, 0.90).

the teams are closely matched on paper, but i’m gonna pick the red sox to win for two reasons. one, i think they have more dominant players; the rays have superb depth and balance, but you need game-changers in the postseason and i think the red sox have more of those. and second, the red sox have the better bullpen --- that alone could decide the series.

i’ll be rooting for the rays in my heart, but my head says the sox will win. let’s make it 7 games.

g’morning everyone --- just keeping the seat warm today. a few items from here and there:

• in september, a commenter suggested (and forgive me, i can’t find the post) that the cards’ fall from contention might aid pujols’ mvp chances --- because he might see more pitches to hit. that appears actually to have happened: as i noted last week at the Daily Fix, el hombre only drew 2 intentional walks in september --- after having been ibb’d 32 times in the first five months of the year. for whatever reason, teams were a lot more willing to challenge albert in september, and he took advantage of the opportunity to pad his counting stats: his 27 rbi in 24 september starts were nearly a quarter of his season total. that finishing kick propelled him to 4th in the nl leaderboard in rbi, and he wound up tied for 4th in the league in homers --- in other words, top 5 in all of the triple crown categories, which still carry a lot of sway among many bbwaa voters. those figures, combined w/ his superior rate stats and the lack of a suitable rival, might garner albert his 2nd mvp award.
• you can vote for albert, by the way, in the Internet Baseball Awards over at Baseball Prospectus. pujols won the IBA MVP in both 2005 and 2006; he lost out last year to matt holliday.
• one more albert item: Lookout Landing calls him the most underappreciated player in baseball.
• as long as we’re talking awards, am i the only one who thinks sabathia deserves the national league cy young? granted he only pitched in our league for half a season --- he came over in time to make 17 starts, or 3 fewer than wainwright made this year (and 1 fewer than cc made in the american league). but nearly half his nl starts (7) were complete games, and he led the league in that category despite his limited playing time. he also tied for the league lead in shutouts --- not only in the nl (where he tossed 3) but also in the al (2 sho). that feat in and of itself ought to be good for some kind of award. another point in cc’s favor: from july 8 (when he joined the nl) forward he led the league in every pitching category except strikeouts, where he finished second. his 1.65 era was nearly half a run better than his next closest competitor during that span (santana, at 2.09), and he threw 18 more innings than the next hardest-working guy. his average start for milwaukee lasted 7 2/3 innings. to cap it off, he threw a complete-game 4-hitter on the last day of the season to put his team into the playoffs. he never yielded more than 4 runs in a game for milwaukee; he yielded 2 or fewer 10 times. i’d place sabathia among the top 3 in nl mvp this year.
• as good as cc was, the brewers paid a pretty penny. they completed their trade for sabathia the other day by sending an outfielder named michael brantley over as the player to be named later. opinion’s divided on this guy --- he has exceptional on-base ability (career minor-league obp of .399) and good speed, and has handled high levels well at a young age --- reached double A at age 20 last year, spent all of 2008 there and posted a .319 / .395 / .398 line. the last figure in the slash lines is the knock on brantley --- no power. BA had him ranked as the 18th-best prospect in the southern league; john sickels rates him a B, and kevin goldstein likes him. he’s roughly comparable to john jay. so add that to the already high bounty milwaukee gave up for their 3 months of sabathia. (and, alas, cc wasn’t very good is his playoff game, was he. . . . .)
• espn released their park factor calculations for 2008, and st louis rated as the 4th-toughest national league park to score in, trailing only petco (by far the most inhospitable hitting environment in baseball), dodger stadium, and pnc park in pittsburgh. overall it ranked 23d among the 30 nl teams. last year it ranked 22nd; in 2006 it ranked 20th; and in all three years, the runs scored there have fallen between 93 and 95 percent of average --- it, the park suppresses scoring by 5 to 7 percent. those are some pretty consistent scores, and they were achieved despite some pretty drastic personnel churn --- the only players who have held starting jobs all 3 years of the ballpark’s existence are pujols and molina (a fact that, in and of itself, is fairly shocking . . . . ). the cards’ home/road pitching split was narrower than usual in 2008, a mere 13 runs (vs 59 runs last year and 66 runs in 2006); their home era of 4.06 was right in line with previous figures (3.93 in 2006, 4.17 in 2007), but the card hurlers improved dramatically on the road in 2008.

no ballgames today; the final four is set, and VEB's adopted team is still alive. red sox appear to be the best team left, but that's just on paper --- which ain't worth nothing this time of year.

thanks ev’ybody for the gold watch and all the kind words and well wishes; i am truly touched. transition procedures are underway, and we should have things settled by next week.

i promised to work up a roster matrix for today, so here it is w/out further ado:

 

2009 ROSTER MATRIX
THE BASELINE

STARTERS	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $3.3m	miles ut $2m	wainwright rhp $2.6m	perez rhp $400K
pujols 1b $16m	duncan lf $600K	lohse rhp $7.1m	franklin rhp $2.5m
kennedy 2b $4m	barton of $400K	pineiro rhp $7.5m	motte rhp $400K
glaus 3b $11.3m	mather of $400K	wellemeyer rhp $2.5m	mcclellan rhp $400K
[vacant] - - -	ryan ut $400K	carpenter rhp $14m	kinney rhp $400K
schumaker lf $450K	rasmus of memphis	boggs rhp memphis	thompson rhp $500K
ankiel cf $2.5m	anderson c memphis	todd rhp memphis	jimenez rhp memphis
ludwick rf $1.8m	freese 3b memphis	mortensen rhp memphis	worrell rhp memphis
TOTAL $39.0m	TOTAL $3.8m	TOTAL $33.7m	TOTAL $4.6m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$81.1m

the numbers are a lot more guesstimate-y than usual this year, because the cards have 3 arbitration-eligible players who are coming off very good years ---- ludwick, wellemeyer, and ankiel. all 3 are difficult to price, because their paths to success were so strange; it’s hard to find players to compare them to. wellemeyer and ankiel are both in their 3d year of eligibility, which is usually a pretty high-priced year, but since neither had ever established himself before 2008 their baselines are low; you can’t price them the way you’d price a typical 3d-year arb-eligible. my guesses aren’t very scientific, but they’ll have to serve for now.

i’ve given those 3 guys an aggregate salary bump of $4.5m. molina and wainwright both get $2m salary increases next year, and carp’s salary goes up by $3.5m; kennedy gets a nominal bump but glaus’s salary comes down by a couple million. the net effect on the payroll is about $10m worth of built-in salary increases, partially offsetting the roughly $35m that comes off the books (izzy, mulder, looper, encarnacion, spiezio, springer, flores, and miles).

we can anticipate a few more alterations to this grid. kennedy will be gone, but most (if not all) of the salary will probably remain on the cards’ debit sheet. i expect felipe lopez to be re-signed, probably for about $3m. there’s a reasonable chance they will sign izzy to a low-base, high-incentives deal. they will sign a big-league backup catcher; anderson isn’t ready, and it wouldn’t do him or the organization any good to rush him. miles? he may finally have played himself off the team --- after hitting .317 there might be a decent offer or two out there for him, and if it takes multiple years to keep him i don’t think the cards would commit. [my mistake --- miles is still a year away from free agency; he only hit the market last year because the club non-tendered him, and i wouldn't expect that to happen again.] at least one outfielder will almost surely be traded. and at least two left-handed pitchers will be acquired --- you might have noticed that there is not a single lhp listed on this chart.

if we set aside $10m for the anticipated acquisitions (lopez, izzy, backup catcher, LOOGYs), that leaves about $12m for a shortstop. anybody think they can get rafael furcal at that price? i wouldn’t think so, but with creative salary structuring they could probably make it work. don’t forget, glaus’s salary departs after 2009 and a league-minimum player will probably take over, so the club will be able to accommodate a $15m shortstop more comfortably from 2010 forward. i’ve heard that furcal and the dodgers have mutual interest in an extension, so the question may be moot . . . .

this matrix is only a starting point, but it’s a much better starting point than where we found ourselves at this time last year. in its current state, this payroll has a more rational allocaton of dollars than we’re accustomed to. last year’s bullpen cost $16 million, and the bench tallied nearly $6m (not counting encarnacion’s salary); both units are now composed mainly of cost-controlled homegrown players --- as they should be. while there are obvious holes, there also is a lot of flexibility in this matrix --- various options for taking in here, letting out there. it’ll be very interesting to see how it unfolds.

some of you correctly read the hint i dropped yesterday: i’m stepping aside as the main blogger at VEB. there are various reasons behind the decision, but it’s mostly a question of work / blog / family balance. i'm finding it increasingly difficult to keep all 3 of those balls in the air, and 2 of them simply can’t be dropped. so i gotta let the 3d one go. i’d be lying if i said i didn’t have regrets --- i’m definitely going to miss the routine and the platform. but i’ll also admit that i’m looking forward to sleeping a little later and spending a little less time in front of this laptop. i’ve started tossing BP to my 6-year-old, and (if i may say so) the kid can hit. my 4-year-old daughter has started swinging the batty-watty as well, and she makes regular contact. (i'll pause for a second while jeff luhnow enters this information into his database . . . . ) however much i might enjoy writing about baseball (and i enjoy it a lot), playing the game with my kids is better. that's the priority i’m trying to preserve --- it all comes down to the old spending-more-time-with-the-family thing. it’s a cliché, but it’s really true in this case.

so that’s the bad news. the good news is that red baron and houstoncardinal are going to stay on board, with HC picking up some extra writing duty. and i’m excited to report that DanUp, who many of you know from Get Up Baby, is going to come over and join VEB. those of you who read GUB already know what a terrific writer and analyst dan is, and those of you who aren’t familiar w/ GUB will find out soon enough. i think these changes are gonna be very good for the blog, frankly, because the realigned team will be able to devote more time and ongoing attention to the site than i can. i feel very good about leaving the site in their care --- they’re all great writers, they know their baseball, and they know this community. i have complete confidence that they'll take the site forward and maintain it as a worthy destination, gathering place, and resource. my thanks to them for taking on the task.

thanks also to azruavatar for all his contributions to the front page, as well as behind the scenes; he has decided to give up his friday gig here to focus on Future Redbirds. it’ll take a week or so to get danup trained on the platform and set up a new writing schedule, so i’ll be on regular posting duty for a few more days until all that gets sorted out. beyond that, i’ll be showing up in the discussion threads from time time, another loudmouth with an opinion. blogging comes and goes, but fandom is eternal --- and i’ve enjoyed sharing mine w/ you here at VEB. to all of you who have reciprocated over the years, my heartfelt appreciation.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

a little followup on the lohse deal --- he’ll make $7m this year, $9m next, and $12m in 2011 and 2012. a total of $41 million, which is totally consistent with the market. unfortunately, it has been a lousy market --- most recent contracts of this type have been duds. here’s the mostly complete list (i might have missed one or two) of free-agent pitchers who got long-term deals (ie, 3 years or longer) after the 2005-06 season, 3 seasons ago: aj burnett, kevin millwood, jarrod washburn, matt morris, esteban loiaiza, and paul byrd. here’s the list from 2 years ago: jason schmidt, barry zito, gil meche, vicente padilla, adam eaton, jeff suppan, jason marquis, miguel batista, and ted lilly. many of those pitchers had more distinguished records than lohse at the time they signed their deals; 2 to 3 years later, how many of them look like good deals? the lilly and meche deals look good; the burnett deal looks ok; the suppan and marquis deals are not disasters. but the majority of these contracts are catastrophes; they made their teams worse rather than better.

i don’t know why teams never consider front-loading. even accounting for salary inflation, lohse is more likely to be worth $12m in 2009-2010 (his age 30-31 seasons) than in 2011-2012 (his age 32-33 seasons). so why not pay him accordingly? give him $12m in each of the next two years, then slide the scale down at the back end of the deal. that way, if he has a bad season or gets hurt in the first couple years of the deal, his contract isn’t radioactively bad the last two years. i realize that paying larger sums up front would increase the cost of the contract marginally for the cardinals, but as a value proposition i would think you optimize the performance-per-dollar ratio the other way around. if there are any real economists in the house, maybe you could comment on that idea.

i’ll be back thursday w/ an updated roster matrix.

congratulations to the brewers and their fans --- first playoff season since ’82, and only their second ever (discounting the ’81 strike playoffs). the old Northwest Territory will be very well represented this october --- chicago, milwaukee, and either minnesota or the south side. (c’mon twins . . . )

in 2007, the season couldn’t end fast enough for me. when the schedule ran out, i mainly felt relief that i wouldn’t have to write or read about that awful team anymore. this year i feel just the opposite: i really liked the 2008 cardinals. perhaps the main reason i liked them is because they decidedly weren’t the grouchy 2007 bunch; by comparison, almost any team would have seemed likeable. but if this team had staggered through a 76-86 campaign, as was generally predicted, i doubt i would feel much affection for them, no matter how hard they played. after a year of tragedy and tension, we needed a year in which baseball was pure fun again. the organization delivered.

it caught my attention just last week that the cards had a fair chance to post the franchise’s highest team batting average of the last half-century; thanks to a furious closing burst of hitting, they actually did better than that. they finished the year with a team average of .28122, beating out the 1954 cardinals’ mark of .28085. the last cardinal team to finish with a higher batting average than the 2008 team was the 1939 club, which batted .294.

that ‘39 team had two players who batted .380 or higher in more than 100 at-bats, don padgett and curt davis. they are the last cardinals to pull off this feat until felipe lopez did it this year. lopez hit .385 in 156 at-bats after joining the cardinals, the 7th best average in franchise history (post-1900) by a player with more than 100 at-bats. here are the top 10:

	ab	avg
rogers hornsby, 1924	536	.424
rogers hornsby, 1925	504	.403
rogers hornsby, 1922	623	.401
don padgett, 1939	233	.399
rogers hornsby, 1921	592	.397
ray blades, 1930	101	.396
felipe lopez, 2008	156	.385
rogers hornsby, 1923	424	.384
curt davis, 1939	105	.381
stan musial, 1948	611	.376

can we conclude anything at all from lopez’s post-trade breakout? flukes do happen, but still --- .385? i mean, .330 is a fluke; .385 seems like a different order of magnitude, ie like it might be related to actual ability. since the divisional era began, there have only been 15 full or partial (ie, post-trade) seasons in which a player compiled more than 100 at-bats and batted higher than .370 --- 3 by tony gwynn, and most of the rest by stars like george brett, larry walker, ichiro, and rod carew. lopez becomes only the 4th journeyman player on the list; the others are broderick perkins (1980), david dellucci (1999), and oscar gamble (1979, after his midseason trade to the yankees). perkins batted .280 the following year, gamble .278, and dellucci .300 in just 50 at-bats; in 2001 he hit .276 as a half-time player on a world-championship team.

based on this extremely limited evidence, we might guess that lopez’s gaudy average really does mean something; can’t draw any firm conclusions from it with so few precedents, but in the last 40 years every guy who batted .385 for two months continued to produce at a decent clip the following year. lopez finishes this season with a .283 overall average; he batted .274 in 2006 and .291 in 2005, so it seems reasonable to characterize him as a reliable .280 hitter --- one with decent pop and good speed and an acceptable walk rate. pretty well-rounded offensive player for a middle infielder. he’s no good w/ the glove, but that’s why god made the defensive substitute. lopez will be 29 years old next year, and he wants to stick around; if the cards were to sign him up for a year or two, cheap, and make him the everyday 2bman, i wouldn’t mind.

re the lohse contract --- goold reports at Bird Land that it’s similar to the carlos silva deal from last winter, ie 4 years and $48m. if those figures are anywhere close to true, i think it’s a dreadful use of resources; all-star money for an average player. the contract has a chance to pay fair returns in year one, but by year three i think it’s gonna be a mangy dog --- the type of deal that makes the team worse, not better; the type of deal everybody bitches about on talk radio. at the very top of his game lohse might be worth $12m a year, but no player is at his peak all the time. he’s never going to give you a $15m season for your $12m --- he’s just not that good --- but he is very capable of having a $5m year. it’s nearly all downside risk; there’s almost no upside. check out the playoff teams this year; how many mid- to back-end starters are making $10m a year on those teams? i count two: ted lilly (who the cards could have had 2 years ago for less than they're now gonna pay lohse) and suppan, who had a joel pineiro-like season for the brewers and may not crack their postseason rotation. now look at the crappy teams ---- miguel batistas and jarrod washburns and kevin millwoodses and gil meches abound. the 2008 playoffs will be dominated by young, cost-controlled starting pitchers --- the dodgers, phillies, rays, angels, and twins / chisox are all trotting at least 2 of them out there. last year's playoffs were similarly skewed (see the rotations of the rockies, indians, dbacks).

ah hell; i'm repeating myself. here’s an old post that sums up my position. and here’s another one. whatever its defects, at least this contract will make la russa happy. . . . . .

tune in tomorrow for some information about important changes at VEB.

Davis	Pineiro
6-8, 4.25	6-7, 5.21

what an incredibly disappointing year for the dbacks. they had the league's best record last year, went to the nlcs, then went out and added dan haren and (at midseason) adam dunn . . . . they got a cy young year out of webb, too. and here they are, about to be eliminated.

back home but still a bit travel-addled; here are some jumbled thoughts on a thursday morning:

ryan franklin has closed out the last two victories, while chris perez watches. . . . it's hardly even worth discussing this, because we know how it all shakes down. tony would probably say he's trying to protect the kid, who has struggled a little bit in recent outings; he doesn't want perez to end the season on a bad note and spend all off-season with negative thoughts in his head. i tend to doubt perez is that fragile emotionally, and if he is that fragile then he's never gonna survive at this level anyway. i would let the kid pitch through his struggles (which haven't been that severe, to be truthful about it), take a few lumps if he has to, and find out some more things about the adjustments he needs to make. and of course, there's always the possibility that perez might actually come in and pitch well . . . . . . just a fan's opinion.

if they can manage 2 wins in the last 4 games, the cardinals will post their best win total record since the 100-win seasons of 2004-05, surpassing the 83-win total of the 2006 world-champion club. if this year’s team faced the ’06s in a 7-game series, who do you think would win? 2006 would get 2 starts out of carpenter, giving them a very big advantage, but the other 5 starts would come from suppan, weaver, and reyes; the 2008s would likely have the better starting pitcher in all 5 of those games. they’d also have big advantages in right field (ludwick) and catcher (molina 2008 vs molina 2006). the 06s would have clear position advantages at ss (eckstein v izturis) and left field (healthy duncan vs schumaker), and they’d have spiezio on the bench. both teams would rely on kids in the bullpen . . . . it’d be a very close matchup, but i’ll take the 2008s for their deeper rotation.

since i made my last post the cards won their 81st game, averting a second straight losing season. when the off-season began last october, i noted that the cardinal franchise has suffered back-to-back losing seasons only once in the last 49 years, that being 1994-95. prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 1958-59. since they started winning championships 80+ years ago, the franchise has only suffered one real slump ---- the late 1950s, when they finished under .500 five times in six years.

they’ve raised their team batting average to .278 with four games to go, matching the figure posted by the 2004 club; well actually they’re just a caterpillar’s eyelash behind, at .2778 (vs the ’04 club’s .2779). as i mentioned the other day, the 2003 club has the highest batting average of the last 54 years, at .279 (.2785 to be precise about it); to surpass that, the cards will need to bat about .310 the rest of the way --- something on the order of 40 base hits in the last 4 games (assuming they all are regulation length; if there’s an extra-inning game, they’ll need more hits). they have batted about the same at home this year (.278) as on the road (.277).

’nother interesting fact about this team: despite the frustration over high LOB totals and missed opportunities in key games, they’re gonna finished 2nd in the league in batting w/ men in RISP and 2 outs. the pirates lead the league at .269; cards are second at .263, nearly 30 points above the league average (.235). in another "clutch" category --- batting avg in innings 7 through 9 --- st louis leads the league in batting and is 3d in slugging. we tend to remember (and agonize over) the times when the team came up one basehit short, but on the whole you’d have to say this team cashed in its fair share of the time. unlike the high-average teams that i grew up watching in the 1970s, the 2008 cardinals can do more than hit singles.

non-cardinal-related item: the twins have won the first 2 of their 3-game showdown with the white sox. if they complete the sweep tonight they’ll pull into a tie for first place in the loss column, and half a game ahead overall. the twins wrap up the schedule vs the royals, while the chisox have to host cleveland, which has surged back to .500 after a very slow start; minnesota obviously has the easier weekend. if they’re still within half a game after sunday, the chisox will have to play a makeup game on monday --- and it then might be necessary for those two clubs to face off on tuesday for a winner-take-all game to decide the division. let’s go twins --- should the white sox let it slip away, the ozzie guillen video footage could be priceless.

in the nl wild-card chase, one of the remaining contestants --- either the brewers or the mets --- is going to be guilty of choking two years in a row. both fired their managers this year in hopes of avoiding same; the brewers are 4-4 under their new skipper, while the mets are nearly a .600 team (53-37) under jerry manuel. but they’re only 11-11 in september, and they’ve dropped 5 of their last 6 . . . . . they finish at home against the marlins. their last game of the year will include a lot of farewell-shea-stadium ceremonies; can you imagine if they close the place out with a loss that knocks them out of the playoffs? not that i’m wishing, mind you . . . . .

the mets make for an interesting comparison with the cardinals. they’ve got a lot in common with our team ---- an ailing ace (pedro), a studs-n-scrubs lineup (fernando tatis, damion easley, endy chavez, and marlon anderson all have played significant roles for the mets this year), and an injured closer (wagner) resulting in a lot of blown saves. like our team, the mets have largely stayed out of the free agent market since the ’06 nlcs; their only significant acquisition came via trade, the johan santana blockbuster. if they miss the playoffs again this year, they’ll be under enormous pressure to spend obscene amounts on ben sheets, cc sabathia, etc etc.; indeed, they’re gonna be under pressure to do that whether or not they make the playoffs. it’s pretty likely that both new york teams will be aggressive buyers in the starting-pitcher free agent market; gonna be difficult to find value there this winter.

Johnson	Lohse
10-9, 3.99	14-6, 3.76

i didn’t quite realize this, but the cards’ team batting average this year (.277 with 6 games to go) is borderline historic. in the last 50 years, only two st. louis teams have topped it: the 2003 and 2004 teams (.279 and .278, respectively). to pull their average to .278, the 2008 club will need to bat about .300 over the last 6 games; to get to .279, they’ll need to hit roughly .318 from here on out. the last st louis team to bat .280 or higher over the course of a full season was the ’54 club, which batted .281. that was the 2008 cardinals’ average entering september; they’re batting just .253 this month. pujols is batting .254., his worst month since april of last year (.250).

still out on the road. i have to put on a suit today, which makes it a bad day.

i agree w/ bernie --- the cards’ september fade is more saddening than infuriating. they’ve won only 6 games this month; unless they win at least 4 of the last 6, they will become the first cardinal team since 1932 to win fewer than 10 games in september.

new subject: it has been making the rounds for a while that the giants might be willing to part with matt cain this off-season for the right slugger --- and the cardinals have some sluggers they can consider dealing. cain is a 24-year-old cost-controlled pitcher who’s firmly established as a good big-league starter. he becomes arb-eligible this winter, which means he’s still 3 years away from free agency. what’s a fair price for him?

according to the Day by Day Database, cain ranks 21st in aggregate era from 2006-08 (minimum 500 innings) with a 3.86 mark; his FIPs have been rock-solid steady, ranging between 3.78 and 3.96 each year. cain also ranks 11th in strikeouts per 9 innings and 9th in strikeouts, and opponents have batted .236 against him during that span and slugged just .379. his won-loss record is bad, but so what; without getting too technical about it, he has averaged about 4 wins above replacement for each of the last 3 years ---- a better showing than felix hernandez, ervin santana, jered weaver, chad billingsley, and other pitchers of his age cohort, and just a tick behind scott kazmir and cole hamels. his performance has been roughly equivalent to that of adam wainwright (as a starter); his health record is clean.

now for some caveats. first, cain has benefited greatly from the san francisco ballpark, where his career era is 3.42; on the road his career era is 4.17. (it should be noted, however, that this split has all but vanished the last 2 seasons.) second, he has thrown a large number of innings (about 650) at a very young age, ie in his early 20s. that puts him into a high-risk category for injury and / or early burnout. perhaps related to this, his velocity has been down a bit this year, from an average of 93 mph in 2006-07 to 92 mph this season. but in spite of the slight loss of speed, cain has recorded more swinging strikes this year than in the previous 2.

pitchers like this don’t get dealt very often; there’s not much of a track record. the closest one i can think of off the top o me head is josh beckett, who was 1 year older than cain is now and 1 year closer to free agency when he got dealt after the 2005 season. he fetched two premium prospects, anibal sanchez and hanley ramirez --- the equivalent of rasmus and todd --- plus a bunch of payroll relief (ie mike lowell, who was considered a god-awful waste of dollars at the time of the trade). wonder what the reaction would be if the cards dealt rasmus+todd for cain? the move would be bold, that’s for sure. i think there is a case to be made for it, to wit: the cards would be trading from their two greatest organizational surplusses (outfielders and right-handed mid-rotation starters) to get a commodity the farm system cannot duplicate: an established young pitcher w/ front-of-rotation potential. daryl jones would step into the cf-of-the-future role, mortensen and boggs would still be around to ease the loss of todd . . . . sounds kind of cool on paper, no? but i’m not sure how i would react if the deal actually went down. last winter the mariners made a very similar trade to the one i’m describing here, ie adam jones and others for erik bedard; disastrous trade, one that sets the mariner franchise back several years. for that matter, the mulder deal wasn’t too far off; the cards got him 2 years out from free agency and had to give up their top young pitcher (haren) and top young hitter (daric barton).

the whole exercise is probably academic, because the giants supposedly aren’t looking for potential; they’re looking for an established slugger. prince fielder’s name has been tossed around (he’s arb eligible this year, and unhappy in milwaukee). so let’s get back to where this discussion began: let’s make it ryan ludwick for cain. anyone care to do that? i’d do it in a second, which means the giants probably wouldn’t. on paper, it’s a fairly even trade. ludwick has been about as valuable as cain this year (worth about 5 wins) and is under control for the same number of years (3). the giants would probably argue that cain still hasn’t hit his peak, whereas ludwick exceeded his in 2008 . . . . ok then --- ankiel for cain? i doubt that’d get it done either; ankiel does have 40-homer power, but he can’t stay healthy and is only a year from free agency.

i do wonder, though, if the giants could be enticed by a package of (let’s just say) ludwick and david freese in exchange for cain plus a prospect of some kind. san francisco would potentially gain two everyday players for the next several years, both power bats, while the cards would upgrade their rotation for the next 3 years. they’d find another right fielder within their deep pool of outfield talent, and while freese is definitely a prospect, the cards have the position covered next year nad would still have allen craig and brett wallace as possibilities to take over in 2010.

i have no idea how that idea would be received by the bay, but i’d sure consider making that type of offer if i were the cardinals.