I'm mining Springsteen's Nebraska again (the great song Highway Patrolman) but in MLB it is DH prices that keep on dropping. 

Fresh off the Rays 2 year, $16 million dollar signing of Pat Burrell, the A's have apparently reached agreement with Jason Giambi for a 1 year deal worth $5.25 million.  There is an option for 2010 with a $1.25 million buyout, so Giambi will be guaranteed about $6.5 million.

I don't count myself a Giambi fan, but this is quite an affordable deal.  Giambi hit .247/.373/.502 last year for a nifty 128 OPS+, with 32 home runs in only 458 at-bats.  And yet he's taking over an $18 million dollar paycut from last season, where he made $23.5 million. I know he hasn't exactly been a picture of health from year to year, but still.

With the baseball market in this situation, you've got to think we can acquire someone with a little stick, no?   With yet another suitor off the market, the economy not getting any better, and the days ticking by, the likes of Abreu and Dunn could be getting a little lonely right about now.

Though I am risking thewrath of the Drunks by quoting Springsteen (c'mon - Nebraska? one of the Boss' masterpieces, no?) I wanted to take this opportunity to point out some reasons to believe that things will not be as bad for the Jays as some seem to think.  I'm not saying I'm expecting a World Series victory parade through the streets of T-Dot, but there are reasons to look forward to this season and not dread it.  For example: 

• The Jays had the 2nd best run differential in the AL last season, and the 4th best in all of baseball.  Run differential is the best indicator of team ability and it suggests that the 2008 Jays were very unlucky. 
• Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the league (sorry, C.C., 10 career points of ERA+ against tougher competition) and is coming off one of his best seasons. 
• Jesse Litsch, who has been ridiculed as a #2 starter, has put together two seasons of 118 ERA+ before his age 24 birthday.  In his second big league season, he brought his K/9 up by a full strikeout per nine while dropping his walk rate a full walk per nine.  His velocity was up and his home runs allowed were down.  He will have to prove himself again, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this guy knows how to pitch.
• Much is made of  the fact that A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, and Marcum will be gone to start the season.  However, McGowan only pitched 111 innings of so-so ball last season and he could easily contribute more to the team this season, making him an addition to, not a subtraction from, last season. 
• In that vein, though it was likely through no fault of his own, A.J. Burnett only put up a 105 ERA+ last season.  it is not at all unthinkable that Casey Janssen, who was quite a good pitcher before a devastating labrum injury, could equal that if he is healthy, which he appears to be.  Recently Jordan Bastian suggested that Janssen was a likely rotation candidate. 
• Brett Cecil is only 22 and looks great.  Does he have the endurance for a full season as a starter this year?  No.  But is he at the talent level where he's ready to make a contribution to the major-league team as an above-average pitcher?  It sure looks that way. 
• Marcel projection for Scott Richmond in 2009 is a 4.10 FIP.  With the Jays defense, that could easily mean a sub 4 ERA for the Jays.  Not a first option, but that's darn good for a 5th/6th starter.
• David Purcey is poised to improve by as much as a full run of ERA as compared to his production from last season, based on his overall performance last season. 
• The Jays had one of the best team defenses in baseball last year and everyone will be back, with possible improvements due to Vernon Wells being healthier and Aaron Hill returning. 
• Jays' left fielders hit .258/.325/.384 last season.  Travis Snider should have no trouble beating that, and significantly.
• Jays' DHs hit ..247/.325/.418 last season.  Even if Adam Lind doesn't improve at all from last season, he will be better than that. 
• Shannon Stewart (69 OPS+), Brad Wilkerson (68 OPS+), and Kevin Mench (81 OPS+)  had a full season's worth of plate appearances between the three of them last season.  God willing, that will not happen this year. 
• The Jays' offense scored 4.7 runs per game over the second half of the season.  As of now it is looking like each member of that offense will be back with the Jays this season. 
• Scott Rolen hit .307/.354/.523, right in line with his career numbers, after adjusting his swing to compensate for decreased range of motion in his shoulder.  Is he a sure thing to do so in 2009? - far from it, but it is certainly a reason to be optimistic.  If he can put up those kind of numbers or anywhere close with his defense, that's a huge deal. 
• Supporting the Jays' young rotation will be last season's best bullpen in baseball, and by a large margain.  All the key parts will be back this year, and adding Accardo and a full season of League could make this year's pen even better. 
• The offseason isn't over yet.

Again, I'm not saying the Jays will win it all this season, but these are some reasons to think they can.  This was a good team last year and there are these reasons, and more, to think that it will be a good team in 2009. 

As we know, the Cubs and Rockies have agreed to a trade by which the Rockies are receiving pitcher Jason Marquis. 

According to this story from our friend Joel Sheman, the Rockies wanted to trade for Jason Marquis because:

Marquis is among the majors' best hitting pitchers and Rockie officials think that will give him a distinct advantage in the offensive haven that is Coors Field.

Hmmm.  More of an advantage than, say, pitching well?  Marquis had a good season with the bat last year, OPSing .598, which was well above his career number of .533.  That was worth about -4 batting runs to the Cubs.  Jeff Suppan was almost exactly an average hitting picher, and put up a .349 OPS last season in 3 fewer plate appearances than Marquis.  Suppan was worth -8.3 batting runs to the Brewers.  So between Marquis and the average hitting pitcher, you've got about 4.3 runs in difference, or almost half a win over a full season of plate appearances.  I wouldn't exactly call that a "distinct advantage" considering Marquis will be taking his sub-5 K/9 and terrible 1.30 K/BB ratios to Coors field, which isn't known for helping pitchers who put the ball in play.  Marquis is no longer anything resembling a groundball pitcher, so that won't help him either.  Throw in the fact that he will be blocking pitchers (Franklin Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, Jorge De La Rosa) who are as good or better than him and much younger and cheaper.  Not exactly worth the $9 million the Rockies will be paying him (though they did clear Luis Vizcaino's salary out of the deal). 

Thanks to Wilco's amazing song Sunken Treasure off their double album Being There, which is both my favorite Wilco record and my favourite Peter Sellars' Sellers movie. 

Hi everyone!  Not much on the Jays front, so let's get that out of the way first. 

According to Baseball America, the Jays signed outfielder Jason Lane to a minor-league deal. Lane spent all of 2008 in the minors (for the Yankees and Red Sox AAA affiliates) after a terrible 2007, and appears to be yet another cog in GM J.P. Ricciardi's master plan of building a mid 2000s dream team.  The righthanded hitter had a nice year in 2005 with Houston, but that was heavily driven by Houston's hitter friendly park and he hasn't done anything since then.  Even though Lane is 32, I still like the move because the Jays have essentially no one of major-league significance in the high minors in the outfield, unless Snider is there.  And Lane has put up impressive minor-league numbers (.286/.362/.508 lifetime, albeit with many years in the hitter-friendly PCL).  It's likely this is the last time we ever discuss Lane on this site, but you never know and at least he should help Las Vegas (I almost said Syracuse) if he ends up there. 

In addition, the Dodgers are talking to Manny/Boras and it is looking inevitable that he will end up there, since no one else seems interested.  I wish the Jays were - I know there are issues with the pitching, but Manny at DH every day over the next two seasons would be a transformational force for the Jays' offense and with the bullpen and defense the Jays have, it's arguable that Manny would put them in the playoff picture, even if the rotation was filled out with what the Jays have on hand and certainly if McGowan and Janssen return healthy.  It doesn't look like we will be talking too much more than what the Jays were willing to give Burnett (though it would cost them a draft pick) and signing Manny would really energize the fanbase and could well pay for itself if the team were as good with Manny as I think they would be.  It really wouldn't hold Snider back since he really could use a little more time in the minors, and he'll make his way up eventually.  If Snider forces your hand, you could always trade Overbay (thus freeing up even more salary) and put Lind at 1st.  And it doesn't look like Manny is going to get much more than a 3 year deal.  The only question I would have is whether the Jays should jump in now, or whether they should wait for another Boras/LA stalemate and thereby hope for a better deal. 
JP, here is your resolution - sign Manny!

In other dream-DH news for the Jays, it looks like the Cubs have freed up enough salary (by trading Jason Marquis to Colorado and Mark DeRosa to Cleveland) to sign MIlton Bradley, which is looking inevitable.  Apparently Bradley wants 3/$30, and the Cubs will come close to that.  With his injury history, Bradley is a risk at that cost and particularly if one expects him to play the outfield everyday, but he sure can hit.  It's interesting that the Jays were willing to pay that much for Furcal, but not for Bradley, who would arguably improve the team more and is a decent bet to stay healthy while DHing.  Both have had injury problems and I don't know that you could say that Bradley's medical history is more worrisome (I'd say the opposite).  By the way, the Cubs didnt appear to get much for DeRosa, which suggests that they were anxious to dump the salary so they could sign Bradley before he went off the market.  I think that was a really dumb move on the Cubs part as DeRosa was providing a ton of value and wasn't making ridiculous money.  According to Fangraphs, DeRosa was paid $4.8 million last year and provided $19.8 million in value and was also a huge bargain for the Cubs in 2007 $2.8 million paid, worth $12.8 million.  You don't salary dump a player who is signed at that level of affordability and is providing that kind of value - if no one will give you value, you keep him and trade someone else.  Marquis on the other hand...

Well, this is all speculation, since the Jays haven't guaranteed anyone any major-league money, let alone some of the highest-priced remaining free agents.  We'll be around if they ever do, to analyze it to death.  More importantly, Happy New Year!  We Italians eat lentils on new year's for luck and celebrate the new year by throwing things out of our windows.  We did the lentils, and now that Mrs. Hugo is out of the house for the moment I can get away with tossing stuff out the windows!  My resolutions are to run a little more (I'm slacking a little lately and am down to about 25 miles a week), to learn Japanese, and to take a break from work, which has the tendency to consume my life when I'm waist-deep in a case, from time to time.  We toyed with the idea of moving to Seattle, but looks like that's not happening, so I also resolve to take more advantage of all DC has to offer.  How about y'all?

So we heard all about AAA masher Randy Ruiz and A.J. Pierzynski puncher Michael Barrett, but while we were out ordering our Matt Clement jerseys, the Jays issued a some more spring training invites. 

The name you're most likely to know is that of Mike Maroth, a lefthanded pitcher who has pitched for St. Louis and Detroit.  Maroth famously lost 21 games for the 2003 Detroit Tigers, but he had some okay seasons after that and was looking lik e a credible 5th starter.  Unfortuntaely for Mike, injuries held him back and he has struggled with performance and injury problems, finally resulting in shoulder surgery in June of 2008.   Although it's unlikely that Maroth claims a starting gig, I suppose Maroth could be used as a situational lefty if the Jays were to deal and/or convert Downs or Tallet into starters (I very much doubt either one will be made a starter, btw, though the article above mentions that as a possibility) but there is no shortage of young Jays who could fill that role as well, and Maroth's numbers against lefties, while fine, are hardly dominant (lifetime .730 OPS against).  I think it's quite unlikely Maroth will make the team, as it seems as though Ricky Romero (and probably Brian Bullington as well) could probably outpich him this season, to say nothing of the future.  Maroth is 31. 

The Jays also brought in Raul Chavez, a 35-year old catcher who has played for 5 major-league teams and never logged more than 162 major league at-bats.  When he had that many at-bats, it was as Houston's backup catcher and he managed an OPS+ of 33.  At 35, his defensive skills, once solid, are probably nothing to write home about now, so there's no reason he should make the team over Thigpen. 

There's essentially nothing to see here, the Jays are really just filling out their minor-league depth.  But I'd hope that they have better ways to use minor league at-bats/innings than to give them to Chavez and Maroth.  Chavez's job is probably to mentor the Jays' young catchers in the minors.  That said, Barrett has a good chance of making the team if healthy, and the Jays did a nice job getting him, who is a much much better play on a minor-league deal than Josh Bard, for whom the Red Sox guaranteed almost $2 million. 

Today's title comes from the song "Bargain" by the Who, a great hidden gem on Who's Next. 

Thanks to Stan Rogers, Maritime Provinces singer of sea shanties and folk songs, for today's title.  We used to sing his songs all the time when I worked on a lobster boat in Maine. 

The Jays wasted no time in responding to the Yankees $186 million dollar signing of Mark Teixiera with a blockbuster signing of their own, catcher Michael Barrett. 

Seriously, though, I like the signing of Barrett.  When healthy, he has been an above average offensive catcher and is coming in on a minor-league deal, which won't wed the Jays to him should Arencibia develop quickly, Barrett falter, or Thigpen show more than expected.  Barrett had three excellent offensive seasons (for a catcher) in a row between 2004 and 2006 so there's certainly some upside.  And he has 31 points of career OBP, and 12 points of OPS+, on Rod Barajas, so that's good.  All in all, a decent if underwhelming piece of business.  We're still waiting for the Jays to guarantee someone some major-league money.   

In other news, the Red Sox appear to have reached an agreement with Brad Penny.  We liked Penny on this site and the Sox will be paying him $5 million with a potential additional $3 million based on his performance.  I'm sure many teams were in on Penny for $ 5 million / 1 year, so he had his choice of teams. 

The very slightly less terrible half of one of the worst platoons in baseball history, Kevin Mench, signed for $1.8 million with the Hanshin Tigers.  Of the Japanese League. 

Finally, the Nationals signed our old friend Gustavo Chacin to a minor league deal.  I know I wasn't the biggest fan of Chacin's pitching abilities (though I did stick up for the guy when he was inexplicably compared to Benito Mussolini) but best of luck, Gus.   If you start for the Nats at home, I will go watch you pitch. 

Former Jay front officer Keith Law has an interesting article advocating for the elimination of the draft pick compensation system in baseball. 

Law first calls out the Elias rankings (used to calculate compensation) as being inaccurate, nonsensical, and outdated.  He then moves onto the more interesting part of his argument, which is that the draft pick compensation system is described as an redistribution to smaller market teams who are losing their free agents, but it actually functions as a giveaway to owners by depressing trade value and free agent salaries.  For example, no one wants to give up a draft pick to sign Varitek or O-Cab, so they will not get as much money as they otherwise would.  

I tend to agree with Law that the draft pick compensation system does not help small market teams disproportionately - the larger market teams are the ones who can afford to sign more players to deals and can afford to pay players for the length of the deals, then offer arbitration.  Yes, small market teams have their home-grown players, but they take 6 years to yield compensation and most free agents that the larger-market teams are signing are for shorter deals than that.   Anyone can make a trade, but a team trading for a player in the last year or two of a deal (or before free agency) is more likely to be a large market team, all things equal.  The bottom line is that large market teams are bringing in more players, which means they are seeing more players reach the ends of their deals and probably getting more compensation.  Neither Boston in the 2005 draft nor the Jays in their 2007 draft would properly be considered a small-market team. 

Here's Law's argument that draft pick compensation depresses the trade market:

Eliminating draft-pick compensation would also boost the trade market. Right now, a team with a top player headed for free agency may look to trade him a year or half a year before it loses him, but it can always retain him and hope to obtain one or two draft picks when he leaves. Without that alternative, a team that's out of the playoff race in July would have every incentive to trade its potential free agents, because holding on to them until season's end would mean receiving no value at all when they depart.

Sure, but this means that draft compensation increases trade value.  If you are foregoing a draft pick or two by trading a player during the last year of his contract, you are going to value keeping that player more and therefore will need more in return for a trade.  This again works to the benefit of teams who have more players in walk years, which are likely to be more often bigger-market teams for the reasons I explained earlier.  

Another factor is that we also know that draft picks are not all created equal.  A team willing to go over slot can expect a better return on their draft pick.  Bigger market teams are generally more willing to go over slot.  The Jays have stuck to slot, in no small part because of currency equalisation payments the team has gotten in the past. 

Law leaves this little nugget about a salary cap, which is interesting right now given the situation:

it's another example of owners taking advantage of the economic ignorance of fans and writers who are yelling and screaming for a salary cap right now. (Salary caps in sports are just wealth transfers from players to owners.)

This is the kind of unsupported argument by assertion that makes some of Law's writing so frustrating.  But no worries - I found an excellent article on Umpbump on the perils of the salary cap. The article sets forth the view that owners unable to spend the money they make on players (and they will be making it under a salary cap) will just pocket the money.  It is hard to disagree - a salary cap would  transfer wealth from players to owners.  But it is also hard to argue that it would not increase parity in the league.  As Bill James said, would you play in a fantasy baseball rotisserie league where another team could spend $200 on players and you could spend $70? 

The article also argues that the luxury tax creates perverse economic incentives because it transfers money from teams who want to spend on players to teams who don't.  This is incorrect - as structured, the luxury tax transfers money from teams who want to spend an amount in great disproportion to the rest of the league to teams who don't.  Further, Iit would be very easy to restructure the luxury tax so only teams who spent a certain amount on players would be able to benefit by it, thereby disincentivizing cheapie teams like the Marlins who don't want to spend a nickel on players but who want to enjoy the benefits of the luxury tax. 

What do y'all think about a salary cap?

This fangraphs piece takes a look at the Jays' organizational depth at first base and it is nice to read about how much improved the position is.  This had previously been a black hole in the Jays organizational system so it's great to see that the Jays recognized a problem and addressed it. 

The newest Jay is Randy Ruiz, career minor-leaguer and mostly DH who spent some time with the Twins last season.  He has put up some good minor-league numbers, particularly in the power department.  Though his power isn't really expected to translate to the  majors (Marcel has him projected at just .268/.339/.411), he would've been better than what we were running out last season so it can't hurt.  

Apparently Cabrera's deal with the Nats is for $2.6 million base and 1 year.  Teams have certainly payed more for less, but Cabrera is coming off an awful season and has never had a good one.

Today's title comes from "Feel Good Inc" by the Gorrilaz, the weirdest and best side project ever.  It seemed to fit.  Enjoy your Sundays, everyone!

Wow, the Gaslight Anthem is good. 

Anyway, good morning on this chilly friday morning.  This past weekend we discussed some interesting names on the non-tender list, including two starting pitchers: Chris Capuano and Daniel Cabrera.  Some wanted to take a look at Cabrera, others (me included) liked the look of Capuano quite a bit better given the likely price tags.  We learned later that the Blue Jays were one of many teams interested in Cabrera. 

Earlier this week, the Brewers re-signed Capuano to a minor-league contract with incentives.  This was a very good deal for the Brewers.  Maybe we never had a chance to sign the young lefty away from his former team, but I would have guaranteed him a little money and offered similar incentives in an effort to do so.  The Jays have the spot open for him if he is effective and healthy enough to take it, so it's not like he'd be blocking anyone. 

That brings us to Cabrera.  Apparently Cabrera has no shortage of suitors, and one team has talked to him about a multi-year deal.  If that is the case, I do not think the Jays should sign him.  Cabrera's K numbers, formerly the biggest thing Cabrera had going for him, fell apart last season and he continued to walk way too many.  He also battled elbow problems and lost velocity on his fastball without measurably improving his control.  He might put together the occasional dominant start but I'm not sure he'd be any better than Scott Richmond or Ricky Romero, not that I'm expecting those two guys to light up the league.  Anyway, if you're still high on Cabrera, maybe this fangraphs story will put you off it. 

One of the newest Jays does it again.

Please, Dirk, make the team.