I went on the record about a month ago in predicting the "most likely outcome" for the 08 Marlins was another battle for the NL's worst record.  I've said time and again that despite my Mayboner, Killa Cam (I know we're working on the nickname) is not ready for the bigs right now.  And you may recall my work in booing every post about Samson.

But even I was struck by the pessimism -- and in some respects, outright venom -- in Jumpin Joe Sheehan's "Spring Training Preview" of the Marlins over at BP.  I reprint it here for your perusal:

Florida Marlins

Where: Jupiter, Florida (Grapefruit League)
2007 record: 71-91 (5th, NL East)
New guys: Jose Castillo, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mark Hendrickson, Cameron Maybin, Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Jorge Cantu (NRI)
Gone guys: Armando Benitez, Aaron Boone, Joe Borchard, Miguel Cabrera, Byung-Hyun Kim, Todd Linden, Wes Obermueller, Miguel Olivo, Dontrelle Willis
Wow, he's still here? No one, really. Just seven Marlins remain from the 2005 team, and those seven combined for 249 AB and 38 1/3 innings that year.
Winter grade: C-
It's not that they didn't get good prospects in the Cabrera/Willis trade, or that they might not be better in a few years for it. It's just hard to see how dealing those two guys was a better idea than putting a team around them and trying to win. Improving the defense by aligning Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla differently around the field would have been worth a couple of wins. Throw in bouncebacks by pitchers, an emerging Jeremy Hermida, and some low-end free agent pickups, and this team could have contended in the NL. The deal also sends the message that you shouldn't get attached to Hermida or Ramirez. Just put the franchise down already.
NRI to watch: The Fish have 29 NRIs in camp, because you can never have too many options to put a minimum-salary player on the roster in place of one making more than that. Early steroid suspendee Jorge Piedra can hit, and he might make a serviceable stopgap in center field, allowing Maybin to play most of the season in the minors. They be taking another defensive hit if he plays there regularly, so Alejandro de Aza or Alfredo Amezaga will have value as his caddy.
Job battle to track: Third base is a mess in the absence of Cabrera, with McPherson, Castillo, and Cantu all vying for the job. If McPherson is able to swing a bat, he's mildly interesting. None of these guys are good; they're barely third basemen, as the three have combined for 95 appearances at third base in the last two years.
One move to make: Send Maybin to Double-A for two months. If he proves he can play there--he's had 20 at-bats at the level--send him to Triple-A, where he's never played, for the rest of that season. The Tigers screwed up last season; the Marlins can't let that drive their handling of a player who is completely unready for the major leagues.

If the ownership doesn't care, and the fans don't care, and the municipalities don't care, why should we? You can point to the 2003 title, I guess, but like the 1997 one, it seems anomalous. For a decade now, the Florida Marlins have existed solely in the hopes of extorting taxpayer dollars for a mallpark. Everything on the baseball side is secondary. They are one of the rare "hopeless and faithless" franchises around.

In related news that I'm pretty sure is alright for me to promote, if you're looking for another preview of the 08 Marlins (and every other team; and tons of probably great content from tons of definitely great baseball minds/writers) that was penned at least in part by a certain FishStripes editor, may I suggest the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008.  I have a feeling that even if Craig isn't much more positive about the prospects for the season, you won't feel as worthless for being a Marlins fan as Sheehan's preview tries.

So with the Gators finding themselves in a quick 14-0 hole to Auburn, I was reminded of the recent diary "An Unrelated Subject" involving UF/UM banter.  I reskimmed it just now, thinking about what kind of jabs I might be able to take (I like to plan ahead).

Then I get to the bottom of the post.

Take care and have a great day!

 - Andrew

In case anyone forgot, Florida Gators--2006 BCS Champions. Oh, and the basketball titles were nice too, but since this is my senior year at UF, what I'm really looking forward to is the crowning glory - back-to-back football national championships. How bout them Gators?

And in case anyone cares, my new website is
www.theandrewmeyer.com

Mahalo Hombres

Anybody notice what I noticed?

Yeah, that's right.  Don't tase me bro.  jrfelix.  Finkle IS Einhorn.

I am honestly shocked.  Er, I mean, stunned.

I should first of all point out, like I seem to do for most of my diaries, that this is all done pretty haphazardly, rather than any kind of serious inquiry that comes to a legitimate conclusion.  But hey, like it is in most things, quick and dirty is more fun in baseball analytics.

Now then, Barry is finishing up his series against Atlanta and as of this writing, still sitting on 753.  With the Fish getting ready to hit the Bay, our pitchers now take their turns at avoiding becoming trivia answers.  But if a Marlins pitcher does indeed give up a homer to Bonds (even if it's the remarkably boring 754th), who is it most likely to be?

Now, you don't get to the doorstep of history by only hitting one type of home run.  Anyone who steps on the mound is liable to be taken deep.  But that doesn't mean that Barry doesn't have tendencies, both in terms of who he hits best, and where.  And similarly, our pitchers have a profile of what kinds of hitters take them deep, and to what parts of the field.  So maybe, just maybe, if we look at Barry's profile and the profiles of some Marlins pitchers, we might find some overlap; a recipe for a heightened probability of seeing the ball leave the yard.

So sometime just after the All-Star break, I did just that.  With the ridiculously great Hit Tracker as a resource, I looked at the home run history over the last season and a half of both Barry and a handful of Fish pitchers.

One of the things Hit Tracker allows us to do is group home runs by a more specific area than simply "left field" or "right-center."  Indeed, as you can see by Bonds' 2007 plots, we can group them between 18 sections of 5 degrees each.  Barry's 2006 chart shows a great deal of consistency with his 2007: very few balls to the first five sections (going from left to right), a significant "power alley" in 6 and 7; and then a smattering across the right half, perhaps more concentrated closer to center than the line.

Ok, but what about the Fish?  In an effort to show off lots of colors, probably at the expense of readability, I plotted the home runs given up in 2006 and the first half of 2007 by Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, Kim, The Incredible Hurk, Benitez, and Gregg, all on one picture.  And what's more, I overlayed (or underlayed, I forget) the diagram of AT&T Park, for even more visual confusion.

Like I said, lots of colors, but maybe not the easiest graph to examine.  One thing that does jump out is how many of the home runs went to those five left-most sections, the exact area Barry's homers almost never touch down.  So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Let's look at the information in a clearer, but even less recognizable graph: a histogram.

What we're looking at here are the home runs given up by each pitcher, grouped by the 5 degree section where they landed, with "Series 1" being the left-most section, going across to center field (Series 9 and 10) and to the five right-most degrees of playing field, Series 18.  Along with each pitcher, you'll see the same done for Barry's home runs.

If we start with Barry, we see how our previous observations of mostly right of center appear in this type of graph: just eight of his home runs come left of Series 10.  The overwhelming majority of his shots over the last season and a half have been to the right side of the field, with the most frequent landing points being Series 10 (the five degrees just right of dead center) and Series 13 (between 75 and 70 degrees on the previous chart; essentially the right-center alley).

By contrast, we see that a lefty pitcher like Dontrelle doesn't see his bright pink Series 10 appear until 26 left-field home runs have already been graphed.  That is, only 9 of Dontrelle's 35 home runs given up in the last year and a half have landed right of dead center.

So who matches up "best" with Barry?  Well if you're not looking forward to seeing Barry hit a historic homer off the Fish, you'll be glad to note that it's clearly Kim, whose start tonight pretty much guarantees he won't be seen in the upcoming series.

Unfortunately, you'd have to say that the next best match is probably Gregg, who not only has a good chance to show up at least once, but off whom a home run would be inherently bad.  The Giants fans are famously Barry's most concentrated supporters, but even the rare one who looks at Bonds unfavorably would have to cheer if 755 or 756 also had the distinction of being a walk-off winner.

But the good news for Fish fans and Barry haters alike is that none of the other Marlins pitchers examined here seem to fall into the profile of being especially likely to serve up history (though Dontrelle's 4 home runs to that Series 6/7 alley that makes up Bonds' rare left field power may be troubling).  That is, to the extent that anyone can be facing a hitter the prowess of Bonds and not have a home run be considered likely.  But if this analysis is remotely worthwhile, don't look for a Marlins pitcher to be appearing on the flipside of that Trivial Pursuit card any time soon.

The new ESPN The Magazine (from the people who brought you ESPN The Network and ESPN The Website) has a surprisingly interesting bit on Miggy, his greatness, and his weightness.  And since it's done in classic lazy "By The Numbers" fashion, it makes for relatively easy transcription.  So without further ado...

Big Fish by Jorge Aranguré Jr.
The numbers say Miguel Cabrera has a chance to become one of the best players ever.  Too bad his waistline's grown as fast as his legend.

It's not hard to argue that Miguel Cabrera is baseball's best young hitter.  With a .324 batting average and 18 homers at the All-Star break, the 24-year-old Cabrera is more than living up to the promise the Marlins saw when they paid him $1.8 million for his signature eight years ago after a fabled tryout on a dusty field in Maracay, Venezuela.  Even now, in his fifth big league season, Cabrera is five days younger than the National League's hottest rookie, Houston's Hunter Pence.  Life is good.

Except for one thing: Florida fans from Hialeah to Homestead are wondering if he's eating his way out of an all-time great career.  When Cabrera brushed off a knockdown pitch and stunned Yankees ace Roger Clemens with a first-inning homer in Game 4 of the 2003 World Series, the 20-year-old Marlin was listed at 6'2", 185 pounds.  When he reported to camp this spring, according to credible sources, he weighed 260.  His range and agility are clearly compromised; his 13 errors ties him for the lead among major league third basemen.  Which raises the inevitable question: With a couple of big-money arbitration seasons looming before his walk year in 2009, how much is this going to cost Cabrera?  "I doubt the weight will scare anybody," says an NL general manager.  "The numbers speak!"  So we'll let them.

.311/30/166
The statistical website baseball-reference.com lists a group of players whom Cabrera most resembled at age 23: Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Joe Medwick, and Mickey Mantle.  All are Hall of Famers.  "I think he's one of those players who comes along only every 20 years," says Marlins utility-man Alfredo Amezaga.  "He's different from the rest of us.  He does things so easily.  He adjusts to pitchers so quickly.  To me, that's incredible, because the hardest thing to do in sports is hit.  It appears that for him, it isn't."
Cabrera jacked a walk-off homer in his first major league game, at age 20.  He was an All-Star at 21 and became a team leader at 22, when Florida's veteran players were traded en masse.  In a game last year, he reached out and got the winning hit even though the pitcher was trying to intentionally walk him.  By the end of the 2006 season, Cabrera was averaging .311 with 30 homers and 116 RBIs through his first four years.  "A lot of times, people see him laughing and joking around on TV," says Marlins ace and good buddy Dontrelle Willis.  "But I tell everyone he's a genius at this game."

250
Walking through the Marlins clubhouse in late June, Cabrera is wearing a white tank top (snug) and a pair of gray sweats (tight).  He's tipping the scales at 250 these days, down a bit from March but still making it hard to imagine the lean body that once attracted so much attention in Maracay.
Baseball has a rich history of heavy hitters, from Babe Ruth to Prince Fielder.  But Cabrera doesn't aspire to that.  When Ozzie Guillen, his countryman, called him out recently, warning he ultimately may be perceived as "a fat boy from Venezuela," Cabrera was hurt but declined to lash back.  "If he says I have to lose weight," Miggy says, "then maybe I do."

550
Venezuela's signature fast food is the arepa, a cornmeal pocket stuffed with a savory filling, usually grilled in a light coating of oil.  Depending on the filling, a snack of arepas can pack 550 calories or more.  The arepa, rather than hard cheese, is Cabrera's weakness.
"People are worried about me," he acknowledges.  "I don't have to take it negatively.  You have to respectfully listen to advice.  But right now I'm feeling fine.  Hopefully, it doesn't affect me in the future."
When asked about Cabrera, several executives for other teams mention his reputation for enjoying South Florida's abundant night life.  Cabrera says he spends most of his free time with his wife, Rosangel, and his 1-year-old daughter, also Rosangel.
"Like any young guy, he's probably done some things where our organization has said, 'Hey, Miggy, take care of yourself'," says Dan Jennings, the Marlins VP of player personnel.  "I think everybody has to hear that in life.  When you're a super-star, it probably gets magnified a little bit."

.736
Cabrera's zone rating -- the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his particular area -- has decreased from a high of .809 in 2003 to a career low of .736 this season.  Last year, Marlins lefty Scott Olsen criticized him for playing lackadaisical defence.  (Olsen later apologized.)  "He's a large man and he's got reactionary quickness, and that's good," Jennings says.  "I think he's working to maintain his body so it will allow him to stay at third.  He's never going to be an Adonis.  He's never going to be body beautiful.  If he maintains his quickness and gets himself in the best shape he can, I think he's going to be fine."

222
In 2002, at Class-A Jupiter (Fla.), manager Luis Dorante made Cabrera step on a scale every morning when he arrived at the ballpark.  Then, under the hot Florida sun, Dorante hit Cabrera hundreds of ground balls until the kid nearly collapsed.  "When you work a lot in Florida, you're going to lose weight," Dorante says now.  "I think he's going to beat it."
Cabrera's agent, Fernando Cuza, says his client is trying to cut down on sugar and carbohydrates.  Cabrera's goal is to get down to the 222 pounds that is supposed to be the ideal weight for a man his height.  "When you're 18, 19 years old, you can eat all the sugar, rice and beats and everything you want," Cuza says.  "But as you get older, you have to make certain adjustments."

$1
Willis and Amezaga have taken advantage of an empty locker in the Marlins' clubhouse, opening the Martin Luther King/Julio Cesar Chavez Grocery Store and selling goodies to teammates.  Candy bars are $1, with the proceeds going to buy more sweets.  Cabrera's locker is just a few feet away; he is, literally, a kid in a candy store.

$200M
Here is what's at stake, besides a young man's health: Cabrera's potential to sign a $200 million deal, joining A-Rod in the game's highest salary bracket.  History says he'll have to go elsewhere to get it.  "I'd love to stay here," Cabrera says.  "Hopefully, we can keep this team together.  It's a young team with a good future."
He'll be worth more as a third baseman than as a first baseman or DH.  But showcasing his strong arm with depend on the position he plays, which depends on how he takes care of himself.
"His weight is a major issue," says an American League GM, contradicting his NL counterpart.  "Teams would also be concerned about his weight at the end of a long-term contract.  He needs to make some lifestyle changes."
If he does, the numbers will take care of himself.

Mystery-man division
Last season, not one manager in baseball could summon up the courage to let even one of his position players make it to the mound to finish up a blowout. So we salute the Devil Rays' Joe Maddon and the Cardinals' Tony La Russa for allowing these box-score gems to unfold this season:

Tampa Bay's Josh Wilson, June 8 vs. Florida: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, in a game in which he pinch-hit in the eighth inning, then stayed in the game to pitch.

St. Louis' Scott Spiezio, June 15 vs. Oakland: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 20 pitches, 10 strikes. The St. Louis Post Dispatch's Rick Hummel reports that the next day, Spiezio was the starting DH in Oakland, walked in the first inning and scored. After he arrived back in the dugout, he imparted this valuable lesson on his teammates: "Shows you what can happen when you walk the pitcher."

Now here's our valuable lesson to those 28 other managers out there: What was the combined ERA of Wilson and Spiezio in those games? It was 0.00, of course. And what was the ERA of all the real pitchers who pitched for their teams in those two games: 17.36. Any more questions?

You're right, Jayson.  Those are the only position players to pitch a relief inning this year.  Nobody else did it.  Certainly nobody actually pitched a perfect inning.

You jerk.

Only Dontrelle could go into a strip club and come out a hero.  May I humbly suggest that this team's greatest story no longer concerns salsa dancing, but pole dancing.

Via Lt Winslow, this account from The Palm Beach Post:

In the middle of this historic drought, some Marlins made it rain.

Dollar bills. In a strip bar.

The buzz at the brand-spanking new Solid Gold Palm Beach is that the ladies there are going to miss their Florida Marlins, now that spring training in Jupiter is over and the regular season started Monday.

And not just because they behaved like true gentlemen.

For at least two nights a week in March, bar staff tells Page Two, star pitcher Dontrelle Willis, described as the ringleader, second baseman Dan Uggla and others were known to swing by the Riviera Beach joint and shower the gals with dollar bills until 3 a.m.

"There'd be, like, $3,000 in singles on the table," said waitress Nicole Spelling. "When they liked someone, a bunch of them would just go up and throw dollar bills in the air by the handful. There'd be so much money on the stage that the girls had to get champagne buckets to pick it up. And (pitcher) Randy Messenger is, like, so hot."

Spelling, 24, of WPB, was on the receiving end of the boys-of-summer's generosity at the new temple of tease, opened recently by former Miami Dolphins first-round draft choice John Bosa. One night last week, the single mom kept hearing from her 2-year-old son's baby sitter that the little tyke was running a 102-degree fever and vomiting.

"I was going crazy because I couldn't leave. There weren't enough waitresses and, frankly, I needed the money just to pay my bills," she said. "Next thing I know, Dontrelle hands me $1,000 from them all and tells me to go home to my kid. They got permission from management for me.

"I started bawling like a baby."

Now enjoying his wild nights with a bottle of Perrier after a December DUI arrest in Miami Beach, Willis didn't pick up the phone in his hotel room Tuesday in D.C., where the Marlins were playing the Washington Nationals.

Said Willis' agent, Matt Sosnick: "It's not newsworthy that baseball players are going to a strip bar during spring training."

In the words of Lt. Winslow: "So, to those of you who have become jaded in this era of steroids spoiled pampered athletes shooting up strip clubs and spitting on women and beating their wives, please try and remember that there are still a few good natured, kind hearted, fun loving kids out there who recognize their good fortune and make the effort to give something back to their community. God bless you Dontrelle."

Via Pinto:

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- State taxpayers would pay $60 million over 30 years to help build a retractable-roof ballpark in Miami for the Florida Marlins under legislation approved unanimously Thursday by House and Senate committees.

The team, Miami and Miami-Dade County have committed to paying $460 million of the $490 million project. The remaining $30 million would come from bonds backed by the $60 million in state money.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush was against the idea, but new Gov. Charlie Crist has said he supports the use of state money because he believes it creates economic development.

The proposal was approved by the Senate Finance and Tax Committee and the House Economic Development Committee.

AP NEWS
The Associated Press News Service

[editor's note, by dan]I had something very different written here, back before my cursory reading yielded the fact that it was only passed out of committee, rather than actual factual passage. Still, we're getting closer. Meh, I've disappointed myself.

Dr F posted a link to Miggy's SportsNation chat from today, and I couldn't help but notice how few questions there were and how uneventful it was.  But they had a link to his Deportes chat, and I figured I'd check it out.  And true enough, that's where the action was.

Fully allowing that the language has long since left me, I got the following out of it (not every question, just the ones I thought were interesting, even if some were just the company line):

Although Vlad and Manny are his two favorite players, he'd like most to play with Pujols in St. Louis.

He's most comfortable hitting against Brett Tomko and finds Schmidt the most difficult to hit.

Somebody asks him about playing left field for the Mets so he can bat fifth behind Beltran and Delgado.  Miggy says he'd rather keep playing third, and that the Mets could move Wright to left.

Somebody asks if he would accept a trade to the Yankees in the middle of the season.  Miggy says it's not in his hands, but that he doesn't think that would happen anyway.

Somebody asks if it would be possible for him to hit more home runs (hahaha, love it).  Miggy says it's always one of his goals.  He wants to hit at least thirty, but he's always trying to hit more.

Somebody asks if there's another team he wants to play for if the Marlins don't give him a contract, since they have a history of not keeping great players.  Miggy does the standard "I'm with the Marlins, I don't have any other favorite teams" stuff, but then once again says he'd like to play with Pujols in St. Louis.

I think he actually comes out and says that he doesn't want to play for the Yankees because of all their rules.

Somebody asks if it affects him at all, knowing that every player who has been as good as him at this age is in the Hall (except Pujols).  Miggy says it's something he's proud of, but that the most important thing to him is playing hard every day, and playing hard to the last out.  

Bolding this one because it hits arguably the two biggest questions right now: somebody asks if he has any news on center field or the new stadium.  Miggy says center is definitely still to be decided but that he thinks Sanchez has a good shot.  He then says that he heard there could be new information this week that the park would definitely be in downtown Miami.  This would be a good time to point out my non-fluency, in case there are some subtleties I'm missing in what he said.

On Fredi: He's a good manager who doesn't try to put pressure on the players.  They get along well.

A strange political dust-up about which I have no background knowledge: somebody says that Miggy gave a bat to Hugo Chavez and now he's threatening to put the bat to them (figuratively, one presumes) and for this, the fan can't forgive Miggy.  Cabrera says he did it on request from the Venezuelan consulate and that he couldn't turn down such a request.

On winter ball: he will always be asked to play in Venezuela, but it's up to the Marlins to give permission.

Somebody asks if he'd rather stay in Miami or go to St. Louis.  Miggy says he'd like either, but he'd prefer most that Pujols comes to Miami.  Now we're talking.

Somebody says they think he could go 40/40.  Miggy disagrees because he's not a good basestealer.  His game, he says, is to bring guys around and hit for high average.

Could he ever put up 45 HRs and 145 RBI?  If God wants it, he will do it, and those are the kinds of numbers he's working towards.

Are there any records he wants to break?  None.  You have to focus on the year to year, and put records out of your mind.

Is he going to win the batting title this year?  He won't think about it until the last month of the season, especially after last year coming down to the final game.

Who has the strongest team: the Venezuelans, Dominicans, Puerto Ricans or Mexicans?  Miggy surprises me by admitting that the Dominicans have been the strongest for ten years.

Favorite parks: Atlanta, Wrigley, Philly, Cinci, and Colorado.  Hmmm... what do they have in common?

Seen at Deadspin, ripped right from the Minny Star-Tribune:

Castillo's rough day
The Twins have an infield drill they call "Good Morning America," and it's quite a sight.

Instead of the standard drill with one coach hitting a fungo, there are four coaches hitting balls at the same time.

Most of the infielders looked sharp Sunday, but if you had never seen Luis Castillo play second base before, you never would have guessed he's a three-time Gold Glove Award winner.

Almost every throw Castillo made took a bounce. Manager Ron Gardenhire demands precision during these workouts, so Castillo's antics had to annoy Gardy.

But on this day, Gardenhire cut him some slack. Castillo learned it was his turn for a physical and wasn't thrilled to learn it meant a rubber-gloved rectal exam.

"I think Luis will be fine, but he had a rough day today," Gardenhire said. "Not normally what we like to see. He was scared to death he was going to get the finger [exam from the doctor], and I think it totally flabbergasted him."

I think I speak for everyone when I say: completely understandable.

A friend of mine got accepted to NYU Law earlier in the week, and so we're all "doing it up extra big" (as the kids say) and celebrating with a dinner at this steakhouse Frankie and Johnnies tonight.

I, not being one whose things are often done up extra big, decided to check if they had a website to get some idea of price, dress, etc.  So I'm bouncing around their site, and I click on Reviews, and what do I see but a Florida Marlins logo.  "The Marlins reviewed a New York steakhouse?" I asked myself.  

The answer, it seems, is that the Fish took some corporate bigwigs out to dinner over the summer and had a pretty good time.  See for yourself.

Gotta love that stationery.