Monday is the deadline to offer arbitration to Type A and B free agents.  So, while we try to read the smoke signals drifting up from the Astros' decision to temporarily suspend the Wolf negotiations, we also can ponder the Astros' arbitration decisions for Wolf, Brocail, and Loretta.

Although I have been a proponent (in the past) of offering arbitration to the maximum number of Type A and B free agents, in order to maximize the number of free draft choices, I have to admit that the decision appears more dicey than usual this season...as in, how much are the Astros willing to gamble in order to acquire draft choices?

Take Brocail, for instance, because this is a tough choice.  The Astros get the maximum reward (first round draft pick) if Brocail is offered arbitration and signs elsewhere.  That is a very inviting scenario.  But what are the odds that it plays out that way?  Since Brocail likes Houston, he could accept arbitration and end up getting his previous salary or even more, which the Astros had balked on giving him in the first place.  If Brocail turns down arbitration, his free agent market will be limited by the fact that many teams won't give up a first round choice for a relief pitcher.  But that doesn't mean there would no market for Brocail in that situation.  Teams like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, and Dodgers likely already know they will lose their first round choice on a more significant Type A signing anyway, and Brocail would be valuable to any contending team.  My guess is that the Astros won't take the chance on offering him arbitration.  If I were making the decision, I might roll the dice, but then it's not my money.

Offering Wolf arbitration makes some sense.  There is a decent chance he signs elsewhere, and the Astros get supplemental round picks.  If Wade wants Wolf so badly, then he wouldn't be worried if he accepts arbitration, and the Astros can get Wolf without a multi-year contract in that scenario.  Chip Bailey, the Chronicle's fan blogger, speculates that the decision to back off negotiating with Wolf is part of a strategy to offer him arbitration and force Wolf to make a choice whether he would accept a market priced 1 year contract, which he would get in arbitration.  The down side of this strategy, if we are to believe the latest from Wade, is that the Astros can't afford Wade without trading some important pieces.  So, the Astros would let Wolf's decision dictate whether they have to trade other players.  My guess is that the Astros offer arbitration to Wolf.  My decision would probably be the same, except I would be gambling that Wolf accepts a multi-year free agent contract elsewhere.

The tea leaves seem to indicate that the Astros would prefer to go for a low salary option at utility infielder, meaning that they don't want Loretta and his contract back.  Loretta prefers a full time second base job anyway; so it seems unlikely that he would accept arbitration.  At first glance, this seems like a no-brainer for offering arbitration.  However, the Astros probably believed Loretta wouldn't accept arbitration last year, and he did accept it.  Given that history, maybe the Astros will fear the same thing might happen.  Given that Loretta has value to the team if he stays, and that his salary won't be huge anyway, I see no reason not to offer arbitration.  I have no guess what the Astros will do, though.

Because the dollars at risk for Brocail and Loretta are not massive, probably on the order of a couple of million each, one would think the risk of offering arbitration is reasonable.  However, the way Wade describes it, the Astros' budget is so tight that the front office can't buy a box of paper clips without getting approval from Drayton.  If the budget is so tight that utility infielders and back up catchers will bust the payroll, then maybe the Astros will conclude that any risk associated with arbitration will be too great to take.  I hope that's not true, but keep it in mind.

And that brings us back to Wade's comments about backing off Wolf, for now because of the threat of a $120 million payroll.  If nothing else, this has sparked some mystery in the Astros' hot stove season. What does it mean?  I have seen a lot of different speculation on Astros' blogs and message boards.   Is Wade engaging in brinksmanship with Wolf, as Bailey's blog seems to suggest?  Does this mean a trade is in the works?

McTaggert at the Chronicle has his own speculation.  McTaggert says:

But it appears there's no room at the inn for Wolf, Valverde and Wigginton. Someone apparently has to go. Who will it be? I wouldn't trade Valverde. It's hard to compete without a top-notch closer. LaTroy Hawkins has closed in the past, but I wouldn't put much confidence in him. If I were the Astros, I'd re-sign Wolf because pitching is at a premium.

That leaves Wigginton, at least to me, as the most likely person to be gone. The Astros have a couple of third baseman prospects in Chris Johnson and Drew Sutton and could move Wigginton for pitching. I could be completely wrong in all of this, but we'll see.

As I think about it, let me suggest another possibility: perhaps Wade is waiting for events over the next week in order to see who will accept arbitration.  For instance, if he offered arbitration to each Type A and B free agent, then he knows that he must make trades if they all accepted arbitration....at least, if you assume the validity of his statements about the budget constraint.

I noticed that fangraphs had an article about Hunter Pence called "Hunter Pence's sliding production."  I can't say that I see anything I didn't know in this article.  As the title suggests, the article is not exactly a glowing report on Pence.  But I think most of us who have watched Pence realize that plate discipline has been a major issue for him.  I overstated things when I said the article didn't say anything I didn't know.  The author dug out a few useful tidbits of data.  For instance, Pence saw more sliders than any hitter last year, and he saw a lower proportion of fastballs than any hitter.  (Dan Uggla is the hitter who came the closest to Pence in terms of slider attacks.)  That demostrates what we all knew: pitchers had detected a definite weakness and attacked it ferociously.  The article also points out Pence's proclivity for swinging at balls outside the strike zone and taking pitches in the strike zone.  That is one of the reasons that plate discipline is so important to hitting with power.  Plate discipline isn't just about walks, but rather allows the batter to put himself in a position to hit HIS pitches.

The comments section of the article has some dialogue between supporters of Pence and the author.  You might find this interesting, because it discusses Pence's improved performance at the very end of the year.  Pence supporters see it as a sign of a real change in Pence's approach, while the author is skeptical.  If you go back to some of the September game threads, you will see that I commented a few times that Pence's plate discipline seemed to be much better, and it appeared to lead to greater power production.  Pence had a .581 SLG and a .969 OPS in September.  The author makes a fair point that this easily could be the normal fluctuations between good and bad months over the course of a season.  However, the better plate discipline did seem apparent in watching him.  We certainly can hope it carries over.  But at this point it is just that, hope, rather than concrete evidence of a change.

While you are working on an appropriate sabermetric challenge for Dying Quail (see story below), I will write something closer to a statistical rambling regarding the 2008 Astros, based on perusing the Hardball Times' team stats page and BaseballMusings.com's latest installment on PMR results.

We all know the question mark raised by the Astros pythagorean record in 2008, i.e., the pythag stat for the 08 Astros indicates that the team should have been a 77 win team instead of the 86 wins that the team actually achieved.  The significance and uncertainties of such results has been argued at Crawfish Boxes previously, and I won't open that can of worms again.

But a few other stats on the HT team stats page may tell us how the Astros achieved their W / L record.  In "close games" the Astros were 41-31, giving the Astros a 57% winning percentage in close games, which is even higher than the team's overall win percentage. Presumably, the Win Probability Added (WPA) stat may help explain that result. The Astros' win probability added score, .+5.50, was achieved in large degree due to clutch bullpen work.  The WPA for the offense (+2.27) and the starting pitching (-2.33) virtually offset each other. The WPA for the bullpen, though, was a strong +5.56.  The only NL bullpen with a higher WPA was the world champion Phillies (who happened to have a reliever named Lidge).  The next closest bullpen was the Dodgers (WPA 4.68).

Within the bullpen, most of the positive WPA was created by Sampson, Hawkins, Valverde, and Geary.  Byrdak and Brocail also were substantial positive contributors.  Now where will the Astros get similar clutch pitching in 2009?  Sampson underwent arm surgery and is a question mark for 2009.  Hawkins pitched out of his mind, and most likely can't keep up the pace from his 08 Astros tenure.  Brocail may or may not return, given his free agent status.  I don't know if we can depend on Byrdak for a repeat performance.

And that brings up the issue of Valverde.  The rumor is that the Astros are shopping Valverde.  However, it's clear that Valverde is a critical link to maintaining bullpen strength, particularly given some of the question marks.  Given the role of the bullpen in achieving the Astros' winning record in 2008, it seems to me that the team's ability to contend may diminish significantly without Valverde (unless perhaps the trade becomes a vehicle for acquiring Peavy or clearing the deck for Sheets...something which isn't apparent at all).  Put another way, if Valverde is traded, the Astros would need a different formula for winning than the team used in 2008.

And, after Justice's column about trading Wiggy and Valverde, a Valverde to the Indians trade rumor has made the rounds, with some fans suggesting a Valverde for Shoppach trade.  Before you jump on that bandwagon, I suggest you read this article about Shoppach...particularly the part about adjusting his 2008 offensive stats for luck.

Now, turning to the defense topic....

Previously, I have mentioned the defensive metric, Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR), which is rolled out in installments at baseballmusings.com.  PMR develops deficiency efficiency measures which reflect how difficult the batted balls are to field. This installment shows the quality of the defense behind various pitchers.

As shown there, Roy Oswalt was 9th best in terms of favorable defense backing him up. Moehler also had significantly above average defense behind him.  Most of the remaining listed Astros' starting pitchers were closer to average or below average in terms of supporting defense.  Oswalt joins many elite pitchers who seem to enjoy superior defense.  This raises a question (no answers, though) in my mind about the assumptions behind DIPS (pitchers have little control over batted balls).  Notice that some starting pitchers (Oswalt, D-Mat, Wang, Halliday) who have spurred debate in the past over their seeming ability to defy DIPS end up in the upper level of supporting defense. Are they inducing less well hit contact? The predicted DER might be a way of investigating this issue further; however, we would have to separate groundball and flyball pitchers, since the difficulty of fielding flyballs is generally less. (And  no, I haven't done that.)

Defense behind the Astros' starters (100=average, or predicted equals actual).

Oswalt   104.62

Moehler  103.69

W. Rodriguez  99.74

Sampson  99.69

Wolf  97.91

Backe  97.87

Wolf's PMR backing is based on both San Diego and Houston, which makes it harder to judge.  Wolf's predicted DER suggests that he may be inducing batted balls which are easier to field, even though that is also hard to judge since he is a flyball pitcher.  Backe had the worst defense behind him, according to PMR.  Backe seems to slow down the pace and throw a lot of called balls when he is in trouble, and perhaps this diminishes the alertness of his defenders.  Oswalt is definitely a fast worker who puts the ball in the zone; my recollection is that Moehler is similar in that regard.  Maybe this substantiates the well worn saying from broadcasters that fast working pitchers keep the fielders on their toes.

So much for ramblings.

Richard Justice with a provocative column:

Goodbye, Jose Valverde. You, too, Ty Wigginton. Pick up your lovely parting gifts at the door.

The Astros seem likely to trade both of them in the next few weeks. You won’t like the reason. Don’t shoot the messenger.

The Astros finished last season with a payroll of around $100 million after the acquisitions of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. To keep that team together for 2009 would cost about $120 million.

That’s the number the Astros have come up with after factoring in the raises Valverde, Wigginton and Wandy Rodriguez probably will get in arbitration. Valverde and Wigginton will be free agents after the 2009 season.

Plus, Carlos Lee’s salary jumps from $12 million to $18.5 million in each of the final four years of that six-year, $100-million deal.

At a time when almost every professional sports franchise is nervous about how the economic crisis will affect season-ticket sales, sponsorships, etc., Drayton McLane is hoping Tal Smith and Ed Wade can keep the payroll in the $100 million range, according to industry sources.

Later he says:

Now about winning in 2009. The Astros still believe they’ll be competitive.

Wade sees a rotation of Roy Oswalt, Brian Moehler, Rodriguez and Wolf as good enough to keep the Astros within range of a playoff spot. What the Astros really need is a young starter to make an impact.

In the off season before 2007, we had quite a few posts on this board about Koji Uehara, a Japanese RH pitcher who is a 2 time winner of the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young.  There was a clamor for the Astros to get into the bidding for Uehara.  As it turned out:, the Yoimuiri Giants pulled out a technicality which prevented him from becoming a free agent and forcing him to play in Japan in 07 and 08.  The Astros went on and traded for Jason Jennings. 

At age 33, Uehara is now ready to become a free agent in the major leagues.  But I don't hear the same clamor about signing him.  The fact that he is two years older probably is one reason; another is that he battled injuries in 2008.  His stats and bio:

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

But the fact remains that he was premier pitcher in Japan.  He was the strike out leader in the World Baseball Classic and was the winning pitcher in the critical game with Cuba to allow Japan to win the WBC.  According to his Wikipedia page, he has never lost in international competition.  He can be used as either a late inning reliever or starter.  The Giants used him as a closer in 2007, and some speculated that they did so in order to reduce his value in the U.S. major leagues.  Reportedly, he throws a low 90's fastball, a forkball, and screwball-type pitch against RHB. He also has excellent control.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, the Angels, Mets, and Orioles are interested in Uehara.  So, naturally, my question is: why not the Astros?  Could he be a cheaper possibility for the rotation?  Recall the kind of success that Hideo Nomo had when he first pitched in MLB..  I could see perhaps the same effect for Uehara.

Perhaps Ed Wade should ask Roger Clemens to help out by giving Uehara a call. Reportedly, Uehara is a fan of Clemens and both became friends when Clemens visited Japan in 2006.  I wonder if Kaz Matsui and Uehara are friends?  They are about the same age and must have known each other in the Japanese league.

Fangraphs now shows Bill James' 2009 projections for ML batters and pitchers.  Like last year, these projections from Bill James' annual handbook complement the wide array of stats at Fangraphs.  You will find the James projections on the player page for each player.

I don't put a huge amount of stock in the projections by James, or by any other forecaster, whether it is Pecota, ZIPS, or CHONE.  But they are interesting to peruse. And comparing the projections for a particular player by various forecasters is a good way to identify players whom have a higher consensus among various projection methods, or conversely cause more divergence.   Also, projections like those by Bill James may help reign in some tendencies toward fanboy tunnel vision.  The projections may temper excessive enthusiasm about a player's future production, or perhaps bring some realism to overly harsh verdicts about players on your team who had bad years.  So, now, let's get to some of James' projections for Astros' players.

I tend to view batting average projections as less reliable, so I will stick to the OPS projections below.  Of course, you can look at all the stat projections for a player by going to the Fangraphs site.

(OPS 2009)

Berkman  .954

Lee .879

Matsui .729

Blum .671

Loretta  .729

Pence .865

Newhan  .750

Erstad  .639

Wigginton  .800

Quintero  .656

Towles  .748

Tejada .786

Bourn  .656

His projections show a few key players regressing, even though by a marginal amount in most cases.  Berkman and Lee aren't quite as good as last year, but they are still expected to post a nice OPS.  That isn't particularly surprising to me, though each could still add 70 or more points to their OPS, if we are lucky.  James' projections suggest what many of us suspected, that Wiggy had his career year last season.  Wigginton's .800 OPS would be disappointing, but still acceptable at 3d base.  The projected decline in Matsui's OPS would be even more disappointing.  The projections anticipate noticeable declines in batting average, OBP, and SLG for Kaz, but the forecasts appear to be in line with Matsui's career numbers.  We can hope that the projections don't account for an improvement in Kaz's offense which coincided with leaving New York City.  Erstad is expected to decline also, probably reflecting a trend which existed in his career before he came to Houston.

The catcher position is projected to be in better shape than perhaps we anticipate.  Certainly, I would gladly accept a .748 OPS by Towles next year.  You can look at Bourn's forecasted .656 OPS as a glass half full or half empty.  If you are inclined toward the former view, then you might be downright giddy about a 100 point increase in his OPS, and a .320 OBP which is not disastrous.  However, a sub-.700 OPS is still too low for a starting CFer, and the OBP isn't as high as you seek in your lead off man.  The Bourn projection doesn't really surprise me; a mid-.500's OPS is too low to reflect his true talent level.  My guess is that James is trusting a MLE conversion of Towles' minor league stats in order to arrive at his projection.

Let's go the starting rotation.  I will show the projected ERA and FIP.

(ERA, FIP)

Oswalt, 3.50, 3.50

Wolf 4.29, 4.45

W. Rodriguez 4.45, 4.46

Moehler  4.93, 4.78

Backe 5.49, 5.48

There is some good and bad.  Oswalt is fine.  Wolf's ERA is fine too; I would accept that ERA from him.  It's not worth $10 million/year, but I might guess a worse result. Wandy's ERA seems too high; I'm not sure if that is my fan optimism speaking or if it reflects the more in depth knowledge of an individual player that comes with being a fan.  Moehler regresses, and it's about what many of us would expect.  Backe's ERA is forecasted as horrible, albeit better than the horrendous number from last year.

Without going into detail (you can look it up, if interested), I will simply summarize the relief corps projections as quite good.  Valverde, Geary, Brocail, Sampson, and Hawkins are all forecasted to have fine years.  Wright and Byrdak are 4-ish ERA projections.  If the Astros don't re-sign Brocail, they may have a fairly big hole to fill, though, particularly if Sampson doesn't recover quickly from his surgery.

Given the weakness of the rotation projections, let's look at few plausible free agent pitcher forecasts.

(ERA, IP)

Sheets 3.39  186 IP

Garland  4.38 186 IP

Dempster 3.89  195 IP

Hampton 4.61 132 IP

Burnett 3.62  224 IP

Oliver Perez  4.53 204 IP

Lowe  3.60 206 IP

Sabbathia  3.48  240 IP

Of course, the projections don't account for Sheet's recent injury, but his forecast is good.  Garland looks like a Wolf clone.  You can see why Sabbathia and Lowe are likely to sign at a very high cost...it's a combination of great run prevention and durability.

The Chronicle's J.J. Ortiz listed off-season priorities for the Astros' front office, and included a reserve shortstop.  This makes sense.  Loretta appears to be gone.  Newhan doesn't play shortstop.  Manzella hit poorly at Round Rock.  Compounding the problem is the perceived need to give Tejada more rest.  Left to his own devices, Tejada would try to be an iron man, but at his age, more down time may be necessary to keep him recharged.  The pattern of Tejada's offensive performance last season (great start but declining greatly after that) gives some credence to the idea of keeping him fresh...or at least trying that tactic to see if it helps.

One thought which comes to mind--and this probably is unlikely---is Adam Everett.  Would Everett be willing to play the back up role?  At this point, I'm not aware of any teams that would be looking to make Everett their starting shortstop (unless the Twins bring him back).  Everett's defense probably has diminished a tick, his offense hasn't improved, and he is subject to greater bouts with his back problems.  All of which seem to point to a reserve role at this stage of his career.  However, even if his defense has diminished from its previously high level, the range based defensive metrics still say he was one of the better defensive shortstops last year.  Also, Everett by all accounts was a leader on the team, and perhaps could replace some of the leadership provided by Loretta.

As I said, probably unlikely, but it would be an interesting twist if it happened.  Other very cheap possibilities which Wade might consider, include Tomas Perez or Danny Klassen.  Both are older shortstops who played with Round Rock for a time last year.  Perez was on the big league club for awhile, but I wasn't impressed.   Klassen probably is more of an offensive shortstop, and has posted good power numbers at Round Rock from time to time, making me wonder what he would do if he was put on a major league roster. But at this point, his major league chances probably have passed.  Or the Astros could use Eric Bruntlett...whoops, he was traded...and last seen in the World Series.

Any reactions?

Go here to see the list of minor league free agents.  No exciting finds stuck out in that listing.  Just for your information, here are the minor league free agents who played for the Astros last year:

Houston Astros (25)
RHP: Erick Abreu (Hi A), Jack Cassel (AAA), Ron Chiavacci (AAA), Chance Douglass (AA), Paul Estrada (AA), Bo Hall (AA), Ryan Houston (AAA), Kyle Middleton (AAA), Josh Miller (AAA), Jose Oyervidez (AA), Nick Regilio (AAA)
LHP: Doug Arguello (Hi A), Ray King (AAA), Mark McLemore* (AAA)
C: Julian Henson (Lo A)
2B: Richard Paz (AAA)
3B: Rob Cosby (AA)
SS: Osvaldo Fernando (AA), Danny Klassen (AAA), Roberto Mena (Hi A)
OF: Jarred Ball (AA), Nick Gorneault (AAA), Val Majewski (AAA), Ray Sadler (AAA), Todd Self (AAA)

By the way, I thought Todd Self decided to go into coaching in the Astros' minor league organization this year.  Maybe he still has the bug for playing.

As I said, I don't have any exciting finds. I do see quite a few ex-Astros on this list. Maybe Baseball America or somebody else will write up a more thorough review of the list and come up with suggestions.

Guessing that the outfield and middle infield might be a possible area where a minor league free agent might have an opportunity to compete for a utility back up position, here are a couple of long shot ideas: John Rodriguez, Tony Graffanino, Callix Crabbe, Rob Mackowiac.