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[Note by The Cheat, 12/02/08 10:59 PM CST]: It appears as though I may have overreacted to my email, as the outage was only supposed to last for minutes during the timeframe listed. Oops. Comment reopened. I'll have a trade recap up before I hit the sack.

Scanning Google Reader -- Suck it, Bloglines! -- over the past 24 hours, I came across a couple of related entries from two completely different type of sites. I thought about posting them separately as FanShots, but I thought they combined to frame a more robust discussion about the baseball rumor landscape.

In the first, Will Carrol, of Pete Rose reinstated and Washington Grays fame, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Under The Knife, recently announced that he would not be participating in the rumor mongering during the upcoming winter meetings (Dec. 8-11th). Not that I really care; as he says, the market is saturated with plenty of hard-working journos (both Carrol and Aaron Gleeman cite Ken Rosenthal in particular). No, I'm linking to his resignation from the rumor game because of the numbers he cites about the rumors themselves.

Paul DePodesta wrote that 25% of rumors have any basis in fact. I spoke with Andrew Friedman earlier this year and he gave a slightly higher number. I’d say that the number is higher still, probably about 50%. There’s some nugget of truth, some overheard conversation or leak, some good source talking out of school in — just a guess — half. About 25% is chatter - secondary things that aren’t quite right, people talking about things that never quite get to the real talking stage. I can remember a team saying they liked a guy and then a couple weeks later, that guy was in a trade rumor involving the team. It didn’t happen, but someone filled in the gap with something plausible. Not right, but not entirely wrong.

About 10% beyond that is trial balloons. They aren’t facts, but agents and teams like to get stuff out there and it’s useful to some extent, assuming you can pick apart the layers of anonymity. I’d argue there’s real value here in that it helps create action. In Moneyball, Peter Gammons was shown to be a go-between, an information clearinghouse for what teams were trying to do and there’s unquestionably a value there.

It’s the other 15% that’s worrisome. It’s the whole cloth, puff of smoke lies that throw everything off and give the whole process a bad name. I’ll split that into half "good" and half "evil" — the good smoke is just talking points, people throwing ideas on the wall and covering them in a thin candy shell of credibility. The evil smoke is designed to do something, to create action or in most cases, just attention. These seldom hold up very long, but they’re out there and worse, there’s some big name people that do this far too often, likely under pressure of deadline or an editor telling them to produce something.

The second comes from Gawker, the New York and media centric mega-blog, which uses the recent news that David Gregory will (read: may) take over at Meet The Press as a backdrop for a discussion on rumors and journalism on the internet.

In classic journalism, rumors had to be double-sourced before, say, a newspaper would run with them. So you get a tip, then you have to find some other person who would know to agree with it. That person should not be the original tipster. Pretty simple.

But everything is new and different now! Online "news" outlets are not all as professional as we are around here. Rumors pop up everywhere online, all the time. But here's the key difference between now and the old days: if a rumor is reported online, people tend to treat it as a rumor until it's reported somewhere else. Then, two places have it up separately, and ta-da! It's the internet version of double-sourcing. It doesn't necessarily require any enterprise on the part of lazier blogs—just wait until two places report it, and it's gold! No actual sources necessary!

How do the two relate? Well, without truly knowing the ins-and-outs--I'm just a blogger, remember--I'd argue that there is no Two-Scource-Rule for a baseball rumor. If it's whispered and can pass the smell test, it'll probably be written about, or at least re-whispered on the radio. But I'd also argue that we, as semi-functional basement-dwellers, have formed something of our own Two-Source-Rule. Take the Jermaine Dye Rumors, for instance.

Dye has been mentioned in regards to numerous teams, but the rumor that seems to have taken hold involves the Reds. Why? Because it's been written about by different outlets--Some Cinci radio station (not WKRP), The Enquirer, ChiSox.com, and the Trib--though all seem to be using a similar source, pointing back at the first source and adding Jockety's non-denial. So now it's a super-duper, 4-star, rhodium-plated rumor, because it has multiple sources....

And, I'll end that discussion there--even though I had more to say--because the Best-In-The-Business has a Hot-Off-The-Stove rumor for us.

The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are in serious discussions with the White Sox about a trade for right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to major-league sources.

The White Sox would receive as many three players in return. Left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brent Lillibridge are among the names under discussion, sources said.

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 5:04 PM CST]: The opening line of Rosenthal's article now reads "The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are on the verge of acquiring right-hander Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, according to major-league sources." (emphasis added is mine)

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 6:05 PM CST]: Rosenthal now says it's done pending physicals. Announcement Wednesday or Thursday. Players departing: Vazquez and Boone Logan. Players arriving: Brent Lillibridge (short, fast, scrappy, middle infielder with a hole in his swing), a young starter thought to be Charlie Morton (mediocre, uninspiring back-of-the-rotation candidate) and possibly Tyler Flowers (Power and plate discipline catcher, who just destroyed the AFL, but needs work behind the plate).

Last week we pointed to a report stating the Sox were shopping Jermaine Dye to the Reds, looking for a young pitcher (and more) in return, and were looking to trim some payroll. Baseball essentially shut down over the Thanksgiving holiday, and there won't be any real news until teams make their arbitration offers official sometime Monday, so here's some stale news.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that Dye is a fit for a number of teams, but they seem put off by the price.

The White Sox right fielder fits so well with a few teams, including Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the Mets. The Rays are trying to deal the back of their starting rotation - Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson - for a power-hitting righthanded bat, but the White Sox would want more.

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer gets Reds GM Walt Jockety to issue a non-denial about the Dye talks.

As for talk that the Reds could be interested in outfielder Jermaine Dye, whom the Chicago White Sox are reported to be shopping, Jocketty said:

"I'm not going to comment. But we have talked to the White Sox about some players. Nothing is close."

The way tampering rules work, Jocketty cannot say he's pursuing Dye. But in the case of San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, Jocketty was comfortable shooting down the rumor.

And finally, Mark Gonzales acknowledges the reports adding a couple more names to the fray.

The teams appear to be a match because the Reds are looking for a right-handed hitter to go with young left-handed hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the Reds have a wealth of talented pitchers, including Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke and Matt Maloney.

Of course, here I am writing about it without much to add. I will add that if the Sox are going to trade Dye for the proposed packages, I see it as the first of a series of moves. They can't go into another season with one-and-a-half outfielders. And now Jerry Owens can go about dominating the third consecutive thread here. Paradoxically, it will be the first time he's ever dominated anything three consecutive times.

I was perusing the archives a moment ago and came across an entry I posted titled "The White Sox are a $100M Mid-Market Club." The post was essentially my reaction to the Sox losing out (read: being used as a pawn) in the Miguel Cabrera derby, which concluded with the scathing line "The Sox missed out on their 'big fish' because they refused to spend enough money on bait."

The gist of the post was that the Sox weren't use their resources to their fullest extent, specifically as it pertained to obtaining amateur talent.

The White Sox farm system seems destined to be named the 29th best (2nd worst) in all of baseball. And thanks to some dubious extensions and pretty terrible middle relief signing, the only thing about the White Sox which could be considered Big Market is their payroll.

• The White Sox are unwilling to pay over slot in the first-year player draft.
• The White Sox are (seemingly) afraid to offer arbitration to departing free agents. (Perhaps to help limit draft costs.) The last time they had multiple extra picks thanks to arbitration they got top prospects Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez, who fell due to unfounded character concerns. The rest of the draft was filled with overdrafts who would sign below slot (Wes Whisler, Dony Lucy, Ray Liotta.)
• The White Sox have been unwilling to compete for high-dollar amateur international talent, with the SS Silveiro marking their only $300+K signing of the last 5+(?) years.
• The White Sox have been unwilling to feel the wrath of the Winner's Curse by shelling out top dollar to the top free agents. There hasn't been a singing of a true top-level free-agent since Albert Belle almost 10 years ago. And I haven't even brought up the name Scott Boras yet.

This is a team which has continued to act like a mid-market club with the exception of it's willingness to hand out contracts to it's soon-to-be free-agents. You could make a very convincing argument that the White Sox would be a better club today if they had practiced more fiscal responsibility with their contract extensions, forcing them to part with some of their impending free-agents through trades for prospects or by accepting the two extra draft picks which come from losing a type-A free-agent.

Less than a year later, amid talk of trimming payroll, the Sox don't fit so cleanly under the mid-market umbrella. They've added Alexei Ramirez and (hopefully) Dayan Viciedo from Cuba; the latter to a reportedly record contract for a player his age. They've spent considerably over slot for Gordon Beckham and Jordan Danks. And, fingers crossed, should offer arbitration to their lone departing desirable free agent (Orlando Cabrera) by Monday, netting them 2 extra '09 draft picks.

Juan Uribe is a type B free agent, and could possibly net the Sox 1 compensation pick. There is, however, a considerable chance that he would accept arbitration, where he would be guaranteed at least 80% of his '08 salary. So the Sox will probably pass on that opportunity, with good reason.

Anyway, the point of the post--aside from giving you a new thread to CAP LOX in over the holiday--on the whole, even with the disastrous Swisher trades, the Sox organization is in a much better position today than they were a year ago following the winter meetings. That's something we can be thankful for.

Kenny Williams likes to keep his cards close to his chest, so it's never easy to know what he's thinking, or in which direction he's looking to take the makeup of the club. Add the highly questionable Nick Swisher trade to Williams' unpredictability and it's easy to understand why we've been at a loss for words much of this early off-season. As Lincoln said, "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

A few leaks seem to be springing up surrounding the Sox, however, leading us to be able to draw some conclusions about their off-season intent. The Daily Herald's Barry Rozner gets Kenny to comment on his intent to trim payroll, which, if past quotes are to believed, wasn't maxed out in the past few seasons.

"First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago," Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy.

"We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here.

Leaving aside Williams' tried-and-true 50 cents statement--Now with 50% more quarters! Adjusted for inflation!--it seems clear that the Sox are looking at some belt-tightening moves this off-season. We've seen multiple headlines on ChiSox.com with the words "Youth" and "Movement" displayed in succession. At first, I thought it was just Merkin looking to fill space around some Chris Getz quotes at Halloween, but now he's also got some Ozzie Guillen quotes nearly a month later. Clearly, this story isn't going away. That means Jermaine Dye and/or Javier Vazquez are gone in addition to letting free agents Joe Crede, Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera walk.

Dye has already been connected to the Braves (among others), and Tuesday brought news that the White Sox have shopped him to the Reds as well. Their reported price of Homer Bailey plus something else meshes with Ken Rosenthal's statement that some teams (Mets, Phillies and Rays to be specific) are balking at the price.

I had to laugh at the off-the-record quote Rosenthal got from "one potentially interested executive."

[H]is team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below the American League average.

Which is about as relevant as complaining about Dye's shoe size--He needs big shoes!--and ignores a real issue; Dye might be the worst defensive RFer in baseball. It's OK though, with quotes like that, potentially interested executive might have well outed himself as the dumbest exec in baseball. His identity should be revealed when Juan Uribe is signed as a starting shortstop based on his .338 average w/RISP--92 points above league average!

Anyway, it appears the Sox plan is to use Dye, Vazquez, and maybe Bobby Jenks to acquire some more young pitching--hopefully better than Jeff Marquez--and, I assume, a true center fielder, where the word 'true' means fast.

Unfortunately for the Sox, Williams may have mistimed the market. The returns from the Swisher trade were, um, meager. Washignton got Josh Willingham and Scott Olson for a song. The Matt Holliday deal is the only one that seems like a proper return so far this off-season. Right now, it seems very much like a buyer's market, with teams overvaluing their own players and prospects, and choosing to wait out a cloudy free-agent picture.

The free agent market in particular has been unusually slow this year. Last year at this time we were getting daily updates on the Torii Hunter front, with the Angels swooping in as a surprise team and signing Hunter Thanksgiving weekend. They seem to be attempting to use that same attack on CC Sabathia this season, but otherwise no other big name free agents have drawn anything resembling a bidding war. I expect we'll see that at least until the winter meetings, and possibly as long as Christmas, a date by which many athletes (including Mark Teixeira) want to have their '09 plans solidified.

We may be in for a long, sometimes boring off-season, but for the first time since the Swisher trade we might be able to say we have an idea which direction the Sox are headed, even if we don't agree with it.