As we sink into the Winter duldrums, let's take a look at the past.  We know the Reds have had some outstanding seasons by players in their history.  They had 3 straight MVP awards from 1938-1940.  They also took home 6 of the 10 MVP awards during the 1970s.  But what about those guys that didn't quite have enough to get them the recognition they deserved?  Or maybe the player who deserved it, but came up just short for some reason.  Who were those guys?

I used Win Shares above Bench to identify the top 25 seasons by Reds players that did not end up winning an MVP award.  WSAB is not the best tool out there, but it's the easiest for me to quickly pull a list like this together.  Since the modern MVP award didn't start until 1931, we'll limit our selection to players since that year. 

1. Frank Robinson - 1962 - 23 Win Shares Above Bench - 39 HR, 136 RBI - .342/.421/.624, 173 OPS+ - 4th in MVP
Robinson won the MVP in 1961 and then put up an even better season in 1962, but somehow finished 4th in the MVP voting.  Maury Wills won the vote mainly because he stole 104 bases, but the award should have gone to either Robinson or Willie Mays, both of whom tied for the MLB lead in Win Shares and WSAB.

2. Joe Morgan - 1973 - 22 WSAB - 26 HR, 82 RBI, 67/15 SB/CS - .290/.406/.493, 154 OPS+ - 4th MVP

3. Joe Morgan - 1972 - 21 WSAB - 16 HR, 73 RBI, 58/17 SB/CS - .292/.417/.435, 149 OPS+ - 4th in MVP

4. Joe Morgan - 1974 - 21 WSAB - 22 HR, 67 RBI, 58/12 SB/CS - .293/.427/.494, 159 OPS+ - 8th in MVP

We all know about Morgan's back-to-back MVP seasons in 1975-1976, but did you realize that he led the NL in WSAB in each season from 1972 to 1976?  Morgan lost the MVP to teammates in 1972 (Bench) and 1973 (Rose), and then finished 8th in 1974 despite the Reds winning 98 games (though they did finish 2nd to the Dodgers).  I think of all of the players from the Big Red Machine, he's the one that I wish I had gotten to see in person.

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I know everybody has probably already talked themselves to death on this subject in your pool halls and at the local watering hole, but I had technical difficulties yesterday that prevented me from joining in, so now I will say my part.

First, let's look at Jermaine Dye's numbers over the last 3 seasons:

NOTE: I've added a new column to the table.  Some of you may not be familiar with wOBA, but it stands for Weighted On Base Average and the short description is that it is a "runs per plate appearance" stat that has been adjusted to follow the OBP scale.  So, .335 is about average, .400 is very good, and Corey Patterson posted a .250 last season.  You can read more about wOBA here.

The first thing to point out about Dye is that 2006 is very much an outlier in his career.  The next highest slugging percentage for his career is .561, which he posted in 2000 with the Royals.  Those two seasons are the only time his OPS has been over .900 as well.  Not to say that Dye is a bad player, but we shouldn't expect him to be the guy he was in 2006.

What should we expect then?   Well, only two major forecasting systems have been freely released at this point, and both have him putting up very similar numbers:

Defensively, Chone Smith projects him at about 6 plays below average in either corner outfield spot.

Dye may get a little bit of a boost offensively by moving to the NL, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better than he was last season, and he would have finished 5th on the Reds in Justin's Total Value rating.  So, I don't exactly think we're talking about a huge upgrade to the offense here.

So why would the Reds want him?  Well, for one thing, he kills left-handed pitching.  Over the last 3 seasons, his OPS against lefties has been 1.075, .925, and .917.  He'd definitely add some pop to the lineup.  He has the 8th most home runs in the Majors over the last 4 seasons.  He's got a ring.  Arroyo's the only other current Reds player that can say that.

The real question though is "What's the goal?"  Dye is owed $11.5 million in 2009 and has a $10 million option ($1 million buyout) for 2010.  Adding Dye alone to the lineup does not turn the Reds into contenders.  And while he adds some pop to the lineup, he does nothing to help the shoddy defense.  I've said before that Dye is the type of player that you pick up to turn your team into a finished product, not as your first move of the off-season. 

The Reds are several pieces away from a finished product right now.  If they had already acquired some players to solidify the infield defense and all they needed was a right-handed bat to round things out, I'd say go after Dye.  But bringing Dye in pretty much locks Encarnacion in at 3B, unless they trade him (and EdE's projections look a lot like Dye's).  Having an opening in LF gives the Reds the flexibility to be creative, but acquiring Dye would mean the Reds are using brute force to fill a hole.

I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not opposed to acquiring Dye.  He's a very good hitter and would definitely add something to the Reds lineup.  However, he wouldn't be the first move I make because acquiring an outfielder limits the team's options.  If Dye could put up Matt Holliday type numbers, I'd be all for it.  But since Dye's upside is essentially replacing Dunn's, offensively and defensively, I just don't find it to be the smart move at this point.

Sports Illustrated

We've done a lot of talking about 2009, but I want to look a little further out into the future. From time to time throughout the off-season, I will look at a few players currently on the Reds and make a guess about what I think the next 5 years will look like for them. My guess will only be slightly scientific, and any science used will most assuredly be improperly used. I make no stance that these projections are anything but a fun exercise.

After the way he performed last year, some may think that Aaron Harang is spent. And could you blame them? Since 2005, Harang has thrown more pitches than all but 4 pitchers in the league, and if he hadn't missed 5 starts due to injury this year, he'd more than likely have the extra 300 pitches needed to take over the lead. No one would be surprised if the big guy started to break down.

Pitcher          IP   K/9  BB/9
Aaron Harang   1023  7.70  2.30
Mike Mussina   1099  7.59  2.18
Ron Guidry     1067  7.55  2.65
Tom Seaver     1354  8.19  2.42
Roger Clemens  1191  7.92  2.58

I, for one, don't think it's happening though. I believe that the time he spent on the DL in 2008 was a direct effect of pitching 4 innings in relief 3 days after starting and then making a start 3 days after that back in May. If you look at his Pitch FX data, you'll see that his average fastball was a full mile and a half slower in his first start after his relief appearance than his typical start at home. It's no wonder that he got rocked by the Pirates that day. And it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that he ended up getting hurt right around the same time. Strict pitch counts may be overrated, but there is something to not letting your pitcher pitch when he is tired. Mechanics get sloppy and the injury risk goes up dramatically when a pitcher is more tired than normal.

But I digress.

Harang showed me enough during his last 8 starts to convince me not to worry about his health at this point. I'm still concerned that Dusty Baker could make another foolish move like he did last May, but I'm not concerned about Harang's long-term health because of that incident.

The most important thing about those last 8 starts was that Harang got his control back. When he was hurting, his BB/9 were up over 3, but in his last starts of the year, that number dropped back down to 2.0. I'm not excited that his strikeout rate also dropped, but I'm willing to accept that if it means that his location is there.

All this being said, I don't think we'll see the Harang of 2006-2007 anymore. I still expect to see a very good pitcher, with some streaks of greatness, but I don't think we'll see him pulling down any Cy Young votes again. This is mainly because of his age and his flyball tendencies in GABP. How good do I think he'll be?

My non-scientific projections for the next 5 years:

Year  Age    W   L     IP    H   ER  HR  BB   SO HBP IBB   ERA
2009   31   12  10  217.1  224  103  32  63  187   3   5  4.29
2010   32   14   6  212.0  220   95  32  55  168   2   3  4.02
2011   33   10  12  220.0  243  108  36  69  191   5   8  4.41
2012   34    9  14  230.0  235  117  32  51  184   6   3  4.59
2013   35    8  12  182.0  194  107  31  54  154   5   5  5.29

So, what do you think? Are these projections realistic? Will all of these seasons be with the Reds? If this is what Harang is due to put up over the next 5 years, would you trade him right now?

The Official Scorer of the Reds passed away last night.  He'd been on the job for 29 years, and even though he's not someone most people are familiar with, I was a little saddened at the news.  I met Sample back in high school and only got to talk to him for a couple of minutes but he was a very gracious man.  Strangely that short meeting with him always left me kind of rooting for him.  Thinking on it now, all I can think is, that's weird.

Sample was also the head baseball coach at the University of Cincinnati for 21 years.  He still holds the record for most wins, with an overall record of 391-333-7.

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In unrelated news, but something that might add a little more meat to this FanPost(tm), I invite you to read the story of Squeaky Parker.  It's nice to hear the Reds taking care of one of their own even when they aren't obligated to.

I hadn't looked at the Reds 40-man roster in a while, so I decided to check it out.  Did you know there are only 32 players currently on the 40-man roster?  (Reds.com lists 33, but I don't believe Andy Phillips belongs on there)  There's a lot of space to fill. 

Some of that will be with players that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  Based on this list from Shawn back in October, I'd guess that Carlos Fisher will definitely be protected, and possibly Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, and Sam Lecure.  I don't believe they'll protect more than two players though because they have too many holes on the big league roster to fill.

I think all of these guys from the 40-man are pretty much locks to make the team in Spring:

That leaves 8 open roster spots: SP, 3 RP, 2 OF, C, IF

The last starting pitcher spot will likely be filled from the 40-man roster, specifically from Owings, Bailey, or Thompson.  We may see bullpen help from Herrera, Masset, Fisher, one of the losers from the SP chase or, gulp, Majewski or Belisle.  I would guess though that Majewski and Belisle will not be offered arbitration and therefore will be released, freeing up 2 more spots on the 40-man roster. 

On the offensive side, there isn't a lot of help coming from the 40-man.  Adam Rosales, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar all look like backups, and Hopper is the only remaining OF on the the 40-man roster.  I would say that Drew Stubbs and Danny Dorn are the only other outfielders in the organization that would have a shot at making the roster out of the spring, but both are unlikely.

So the Reds have a lot of work that needs to be done, but at least they have a lot of space to work in.  By my estimate, they are currently only on the hook for around $49.5 million in signed contracts, with EdE being the only likely arbitration case they'll face.  Throw in another $4-6 million to cover the pre-arb players, and it really looks to me like the Reds have some money to spend - at least $25-30 million, I would think. 

What do you think, can they build a winner with the money they have left to spend?

I'm fighting my first cold of the season and it's moved into my sinuses, so all you get are links once again.  Special thanks to Scrabbles and Kyle for posting something worth talking about the last couple of days.  I hope to be back to a healthier level tomorrow.

• Baseball Prospectus has the Hot Stove Preview up for the Reds.  It's behind the subscription wall, so I can only give you a blurb:

  So here's the suggestion that they sneak up on people by giving Milton Bradley a multi-year offer to play left field in a park he'll continue to thrive in. Skip the cautions over dealing in-division, and try to get Alcides Escobar and whatever else from the Brewers for Arroyo, resolving their shortstop problem and adding a hitter who, while he won't get on base a lot, will deliver more power than you expect because of his ability to make contact in a homer-happy park.

  Bradley's not a bad idea, but he might be too expensive and risky for a team that isn't quite ready to compete. I have to think the Brewers would be more likely to trade Hardy than Escobar, especially if they are taking on salary. I wouldn't mind having either one.
• Crosley Field Terrace likes the new Mariners GM's plan to set up a statistical analysis department.  I think he also is personally asking me to hassle Jocketty at Redsfest next month.  Sounds like a plan.
• Doug's been doing some thinking about Justin Turner.  He's an interesting, under-the-radar prospect in my opinion.  I think he'll be a good player some day, but probably not for the Reds.
• The Orioles are interested in adding Wayne Krivsky to their front office.  Is it too late to trade him for Brian Roberts?
• Can you name the last 10 NL MVPs in 3 minutes?  How about the last 10 AL MVPs?  I got all of the NL and missed 2 from the AL.
• The AFL has named 6 finalists for the Dernell Stenson Award.  None of them are Reds prospects, but I think it's good to think about Stenson every once in a while to remind ourselves how quickly it could all end.
• Brew Crew Ball thinks that the Brewers could get CC Sabathia if they just add a 6th year to the deal, even if they don't match the Yankees money.  As little as I want to see CC face the Reds 5 times a year, I'm kind of rooting for Sabathia to pick the Brewers over the Yanks.  And once he does, I'll start rooting for him to get hurt. :)
• Does anybody know if the MLB Network is going to be carried by Time Warner in Cincinnati?  If it is, I may very well get fired for lack of output in my job.

Things to ponder while you ponder things:

Matt York/AP

• We all know that Edinson Volquez needs to work on his control a bit.  He had the 7th highest walks per 9 IP among qualified pitchers last season.  More importantly though, he may want to improve on throwing first pitch strikes.  He had the second lowest rate for first pitch strikes in baseball last season, behind only Barry Zito (for qualified starters) at 52.6%.  How big of a difference can strike one make?  Batters hit .268/.408/.414 against Volquez last year after a 1-0 count.  When the count starts out 0-1, they hit just .195/.253/.297.
• John Erardi had a fine article this weekend about the Latin pipeline for the Big Red Machine.  As Erardi points out, it's relevant to look at that link since the Reds are starting to make significant moves in Latin America once again.  This may be the most important development for the future of the franchise that we've seen.  Sure would be nice if Johnny Almaraz was still involved though.
• I've been pushing defensive improvement a lot this off-season, mainly because I think it's a cheap way for the Reds to improve.  When it comes to evaluating defense, there isn't one perfect system.  Each has it's flaws and shortcomings, but most of them contribute to our knowledge on the subject.   As much as I can, I try to not leave my evaluation to just one system - though that can be difficult since they are all released at different times during the season.  My point in all this babble is that we've got more data to look at as Baseball Musings has released his Probablistic Model of Range numbers for 2008.  Long story short, it doesn't look good for the Reds.  Beyond the Boxscore has converted most of the positions to run values and the Reds are second-to-last at -29 runs.  The good news is that there is room for improvement.
• We haven't heard much about the Reds in terms of shoring up the bullpen this off-season, but I came across a couple of names that interested me.  First, Bob Howry had a bad year last year, but I think the reason might because he stopped throwing his fastball in favor of his slider.  Given his down year in 2008, he could be had for a one-year deal or a reasonably cheap two-year deal.  The other pitcher is Will Ohman.  Ohman is definitely a LOOGY, so I wouldn't sign him for more than $2.5 million, but the guy shuts down left-handers (.197/.285/.318).  Given that Bill Bray is the only lefty in the pen right now with any real experience, I think Ohman is definitely worth a shot.
• I've recently added 3 Reds blogs to our blogroll and I figured I should bring attention to them.  It looks like they've all been around for some time, but for some reason I just found them.  RedLegs Baseball has been around since May of 2007, but for some reason I cared not.  He recently put up a cool video of Neftali Soto hitting the ball far.  I think I may have linked to Dunn and Dunner before, but nothing formal.  And lastly, there is OMGReds, who have a super-rad Photo Blog to go along with their site, including pictures from this weekend's Big Red Machine Reunion.  I'm terrible about linking to work from other blogs, so please click the links in the blogroll often to keep up with their work.  And if there is any Reds site out there that I'm missing, drop me a line or put it in the comments and I'll add it.

I may have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Reds new right now.  Today is the day that free agents can start talking with other teams.  As you know, that probably means the end of David Weathers's tenure with the Reds.  Assuming Javier Valentin and Matt Belisle aren't back, that means the only players left from the 2005 squad are Ryan Freel, EdE, and Aaron Harang.  Doesn't that seem like a lot of turnover in just 3 years?  Granted that team was bad, but for a team that doesn't play much on the free agent market, they sure have gone through a lot of players.

The latest word from Walt Jocketty (via Fay) is that "the Reds will look to trades first and free agency second."  Jocketty added:

“I don’t think that’s going to happen right away,” Jocketty said. “It could. You never know until you start talking to people but I don’t expect it.”

So, we may be twiddling our thumbs here for a bit.

Then again, maybe something might happen quickly with Bronson Arroyo.  In case you haven't heard, Jayson Stark mentioned:

We're hearing the Reds are quietly investigating whether there's a market for Bronson Arroyo. One team believed to be mulling Arroyo: Texas.

I wonder if an Arroyo trade would get Saltalamacchia or Teagarden in return.  Of all of the Reds starting pitchers, Arroyo is the one that I'd be most open to trading.  Then again, I'd be perfectly happy with him as the #4 starter next year too.

I think we'll start to see a few more rumors flying around leading up to the Winter Meetings, but I doubt we'll see much major activity.  Where's your head on this?  Are you optimstic that the Reds are going to make the right moves?  Do you think we'll see something soon or do you expect that Walt will wait to strike?

Use this thread to discuss that or anything else going on around the game.  Dump any rumors of interest in here as well.