I'm at the game.

Pierre is starting over Kemp. Rage appropriately.

So all we've got to do is hold serve here, and everything's good right? If not, could we win one game so I can use my tickets for game five.

It's okay, the Phillies were supposed to win with Hamels on the mound. Let's take the next three.

Kuo's out, Saito's in. Have to to say this takes the sting out of having to wake up at two in the morning this week.

As soon as my hangover from the Cubs series faded, we roll right into the next big thing. The Dodgers enter their first NLCS since 1988 and we at least have history on our side because it could be against the one franchise that's been as pathetic as the Cubs.

The Phillies have two major strengths: A very dangerous lineup filled with three true outcomes hitters, and a solid defense to backup what looks to be a thin pitching staff. Combine this with one of the best closers in baseball and you have a very dangerous opponent.

On paper, the Phillies should have an elite defense with Chase Utley and Pedro Feliz being arguably the best in baseball at their positions, Jimmy Rollins leading shortstops in +/- this year, Shane Victorino being all around mobile and Jayson Werth, a competent centerfielder, in right. Despite this, the team finished only 10^th in defensive efficiency this year. This is probably due to having two absolute butchers, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard, in the field. This solid defense does help the back end of the Phillies rotation who can't strike anyone out, but it's not quite to the level of the Cubs.

The Phillies lineup is very scary 1-6, but they do have a mid June Dodger style black hole at the bottom of their lineup with the deadly trio of Pedro Feliz, Carlos Ruiz, and the pitcher. Feliz does have some pop, but as long as you keep the ball at least two feet out of the strike zone, he's an easy out. The Phillies can fix this by platooning him with Greg Dobbs, but this does hurt their defense.

One of the scarier things about the Phillies lineup is the balance they have, the lineup won't suddenly fold if you bring in a pitcher who throws the ball with the correct hand.  Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are murdering righties this year, while Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell are both beasts against lefties. Unlike the Cubs series, Joe Beimel is going to need to come up big time with the Phillies likely hitting Utley and Howard three and four in the lineup.

The biggest hope we have in this series is that we beat up on Cole Hamels. Outside of their ace, the Phillies pitching just isn't that scary. Brett Myers has put up a four ERA after working out some mechanical issues early by mid May, but that's far from unstoppable. After Myers, the Phillies have Jamie Moyer who has worked miracles by only allowing 20 home runs in Philadelphia but isn't exactly the type of power pitcher you want going for you in the playoffs, and Joe Blanton who somehow managed to improve despite going to a much more hitter friendly park with a worse defense behind him during the season. Hamels is the only shutdown guy the Phillies have, and taking even one game against him could go a long way towards winning the series.

Aside from beating up on Hamels, the other key to this series is getting to the Phillies starting pitching before the 8^th. Brad Lidge has been a deadly closer this year, but after that, the Phillies pen is just full of middle relievers. Unlike the Cubs who could potentially throw Marmol and Wood out there for three, or even four innings if it really came down to it, the Phillies have to go to Ryan Madson who put up middle relieverish numbers all season. Guys like Blanton and Moyer have to go long in the game or else the Dodgers get a huge advantage. It's very possible we'll see some big sixth and seventh innings out of the Dodgers this series.

The sudden shift in the media from the Dodgers facing an unstoppable juggernaut in the Cubs to it being a foregone conclusion that Manny is going to face Boston in the World Series just isn't true. The Phillies are a very talented team featuring a lot of the same strengths as the Cubs, I'm much more optimistic about this series than the last one, but just remember what overconfidence did for the Cubs.

I asked a few questions to Peter Baker of the Good Phight. You can see my end of the conversation here:

Do the Phillies have much hope if Hamels has a bad outing or two?

Frankly, no.  Although Brett Myers and Joe Blanton both came through with terrific starts during the Division Series against the Brewers, the Phillies are absolutely relying on Cole Hamels to pitch big in this series.  With over a week's rest since Game One against the Brewers, Hamels should be fresh and hopefully poised to dominate.

Even though Brad Lidge was perfect this season, does he still scare the hell out of you?

Far too often, yes.  Particularly since he was (Clint) Hurdle'd in the All-Star Game (forced by the Colorado manager to warm up multiple times during the marathon Midsummer Classic), he has not seemed particularly fresh, often allowing multiple baserunners and frequently requiring over 20 pitches to close out a game.  Still, the numbers are great and he has yet to blow a game, so it's hard to quibble too much... although my nervous system may disagree.

Do you think of anyone on the Dodgers except Manny as any kind of threat?

Andre Ethier has been an absolute monster since mid-summer.  A lefty hitter who kills righties (.953 OPS), Ethier is likely to feast on the likes of not just Myers and Blanton, but righty relievers Condrey and Durbin as well.  Russell Martin, as well, is a terrific and scary right-handed hitter, not to be taken lightly.

Additionally, and not very rationally, Phillies fans have seething hatred for Juan "F." Pierre, who as a Marlin in 2003 seemingly devastated the Phillies all season long.  At least anecdotally, the influence of Pierre on the Phillies' decisionmaking process was long-term, detrimental, and two-fold, and led to both a counterproductive fixation on stopping Pierre himself, and to the ill-advised acquisition of Endy Chavez to be "our Juan Pierre" in 2005.

Any kind words for handing you two thirds of your outfield?

As far as Jayson Werth goes, thank you.  It was a case of misfortune on his and your parts that his wrist injury abbreviated his Dodgers career.

With regard to Shane Victorino, the Dodgers had the opportunity to take him back when the Phillies failed to keep him on the 40 man roster for the entirety of the 2005 season.  And the Dodgers could have had him back, but for their decision not to pay the $50,000 it would take to get him back.  $50,000 versus Andruw Jones salary.  I can't make too much fun, however; the Phillies are on the hook for about $8MM for Adam Eaton next season.

I'm at National Sports Grill with some friends so I sadly won't be joining y'all. Just assume I would have said "more like HIroki Kublowda" at some point.

Let's do this like Brutus

The last time the Dodgers had a lead in a playoff series, I was four, and I don't think I realized that players took their swings at home plate. 16 years later, I finally learned what a playoff win was like, but after that high died down I was left with the idea of Odalis Perez and Jeff Weaver shutting down one of the best offenses in recent memory to take the series. For the first time, I actually have hope in October, and I like it.

Tonight we send our ace against Carlos Zambrano who is getting by on name recognition at this point. His peripheral stats are like Jeff Weaver's in 2004, just with less control, would you be scared about facing Jeff Weaver? While his no hitter in early September got a ton of publicity, it hid the fact that over the last two months, the guy had two good starts, leading to a 7.28 ERA since August. Despite what the mainstream impression is, the Dodgers have a huge advantage on the mound tonight. We are the favorites in a game that could have us coming home with a 2-0 lead. How's that for hope?