1. I pitch for the Boston Red Sox.

2. I have been considered a potential ace for a number of years. There are many who are reluctant to give me the "ace" label now.

3. According to Fangraphs.com's numbers, I was 6th among qualified ML starters in Fielding Independent Pitching this past season, behind only Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay.

4. I was 3rd among qualified ML starters in K/BB behind Roy Halladay and Dan Haren. I lowered my walk rate and upped my K-rate from my 2007 numbers. I, of course, led my own team in both categories.

5. Out of my three seasons with the Red Sox, there are many who would say that I only pitched well for one.

6. Only Tim Wakefield, among my teammates, had a better WHIP than I did this season. I was 7th in the AL in this category.

7. I am quick to take the blame for losses and to give credit to others when I win. 

8. I am definitely a better pitcher than the still good pitcher who led my team in wins this season.

Who am I? (Answer within)

Continue reading this post »

...plugging right along.

16-20.

15. Michael Almanzar, IF

2008 Numbers: R, 23 G 99 PA .348/.414/.472 6 2B 1 3B 1 HR 3 SB (3 CS)

                            A, 35 G 147 PA .207/.238/.314 5 2B 2 3B 2 HR 0 SB (1 CS)

Almanzar is potential. That line of his in A-ball doesn't look too good, but this was his age 17 season. He has enough potential, talent, and athleticism that the Sox wanted to give him an extended look against tougher competition. His long-term position is ?, though he played all his defensive innings at 3B. This is a guy I expect to move up on the list. Have to keep in mind his age, because going through rookie ball like he did (smallish sample aside) at age 17 is pretty impressive, especially for someone who didn't play a lot of baseball before the Sox signed him at 16.

14. Aaron Bates, 1B

2008 Numbers: AA, 124 G 530 PA .276/.366/.420 29 2B 2 3B 11 HR

Bates will be an absolute afterthought on any 2009 prospect lists. He's 24, plays only 1B, and his only big power "year" came at Lancaster in 2007. He's not cooked, but he's probably not even an edge of the peripheral part of the FO's long-term plans at this point. He illustrates an important point about prospects and positions. If he played 3B, he'd still be, at least, interesting at this point.

13. Josh Reddick, OF

2008 Numbers: A, 14 G 58 PA .340/.397/.491 4 2B 2 3B 2 SB (1 CS)

                             A+, 76 G 331 PA .343/.375/.593 11 2B 8 3B 17 HR 9 SB (1 CS)

                             AA, 34 G 132 PA .214/.290/.436 4 2B 2 3B 6 HR 3 SB (1 CS)

Reddick is a multitalented outfielder. He's definitely destined to move up the list. His power numbers are good, especially if he makes it as a RF, and he's shown the ability to steal some bases. He makes good hard contact on the ball. The only caveat with Reddick is plate discipline. Will he be able to put up a line similar to his .309/.354/.538 career line in the minors, or will his lack of patience get in the way of his development and turn him into another Jeff Francoeur? Either way, the ability and even performance (those AA numbers don't look great, but the power itself was there, and he was still only 21) make him one of the best Sox OF prospects right now.

12. Chris Carter, 1B/LF/DH

2008 Numbers: AAA, 121 G 522 PA .300/.356/.515 25 2B 2 3B 24 HR

Carter's probably going to drop off the list, but this is good news. One, it has to do with other guys we've acquired and developed, not because he was a poor player this season. He also might be a bit old to consider a true "prospect" at this point, a la Jeff Bailey. His future was as a backup 1B/DH/COF anyway, and Chris Carter himself would tell you that you can't fight the future.

11. Oscar Tejeda, IF

2008 Numbers: A, 97 G 396 PA .261/.301/.347 18 2B 1 3B 4 HR 11 SB (5 CS)

Tejeda is projection and potential at this point. His performance isn't eye-popping, though he's 18 so he can get a bit of a pass there at the A-level. It's fair to say that he's full of promise, but we've yet to see a lot of translation of that promise. Played SS and 3B in A-ball this year, though his bat will fit a lot better as a SS or 2B given what we've seen thusfar. He'll probably drop a few spots.

Summary:

Better than the last one. Reddick's stock is rising, and Tejeda and Almanzar have tons of untapped potential. Bates might not even be marginal at this point. Carter won't see his stock plummet, but he's 26 and will make room for younger and more talented players on this list. 

Thanks to Soxprospects.com and B-R as always.

As long as we're prospecting...

20. Reid Engel, OF

2008 Numbers: A+, 77 G 332 PA .248/.297/.392 10 2B 2 3B 10 HR 2 SB (1 CS)

It's fair to say that Engel took a step back this season. He's seen as a player who can play LF or RF well, though his power numbers have never been up to par for the corner positions. He's 21, so he has some time to develop that skill. Engel spent two stints on the disabled list. He played at Lancaster, which despite the injuries, make his offensive numbers look even more terrible-er. Can't imagine he's going to make the list when we fill it out pre-2009, but he's not to be written off just yet. That being said, 2009 is going to be an important year, and if he does spend the beginning of 2009 at Salem (new A+ affiliate) behind David Mailman and Ryan Kalish, he's going to need to push one or the other out of some playing time to save his status as a prospect at all.

19. Kris Johnson, LHSP

2008 Numbers: AA, 27 G (27 GS) 1.49 WHIP 136 1/3 IP 108 K 5 HR 3.63 ERA

I've never been big on Kris Johnson, and his performance at Portland did nothing to change that this season. Improved neither his hit nor walk rate over 2007, but somehow his ERA dropped by almost two full runs. Could be moved to the bullpen, and possibly should. His peripheral stats thusfar in the minors give no promise to the idea that he'd be anything more than a 5th starter at the ML-level.

18. Mark Wagner, C

2008 Numbers: AA, 94 G 393 PA .219/.304/.363 19 2B 10 HR 

Wagner is still our best defensive catcher at any advanced level in the minors. His hitting left a lot to be desired this season, and we should have tempered our expectations given that his breakout offensive season came at Lancaster. Soxprospects.com says that his defensive development stagnated this season. As simple as I can put it, he's going to need to be an elite defensive catcher to make the ML at this point, because his bat doesn't project to be anything special. 

17. Dustin Richardson, LHP

2008 Numbers: A, 2 (2 GS) 2.00 WHIP 5 IP 4 K 2 HR 9.00 ERA

                            AA, 22 (22 GS) 1.49 WHIP 106 2/3 IP 114 K 17 HR 6.33 ERA

Richardson's numbers this year are underwhelming, despite the encouraging strikeout rate. He's been working out this winter as a RP, and SoxProspects projects him to be in Portland's bullpen next season. Tall. He's less likely than the others profiled thusfar to drop off the list, but he's still a 24 year old starting a "new" career as a RP in AA. 

16. Jason Place, OF

2008 Numbers: A+, 114 G 538 PA .246/.320/.432 25 2B 4 3B 19 HR 5 SB (5 CS)

Place is treading water. Would have thought his power numbers would be better in Lancaster. Still a good defensive outfielder, but at some point the tools need to become performance. Regardless of his stagnating performance at the plate, he may be moving up to AA next season. I'd love to see him put up a .250/.340/.440 at the A-level first. 

Summary:

Not off to a good start, are we? The good news is, the next 5 involve one or two players who could be moving up in the list, and we made the 2008 list before the draft, so Casey Kelly et al were not on it. The bad news, again, is that all 5 of these guys will probably not be on the list next season. All right, so chime in. Who of these 5 pissed you off the most with their not-improvement this season? Who do you still have faith in? Will Wagner work hard enough to become the next Mike Matheny? Is this whole thing with Jason Place just going to end in tears, for everyone? 

Thanks to SoxProspects.com for lots of information and to B-R for lots of stats.

The Yankees have acquired Nick Swisher for a couple Wheaties coupons and a prize from a Cracker Jack box. 

The domino effect? This could take the Yankees out of the running for Mark Teixeira. Consider the cast of characters that can/could/should? spend time at 1B and DH for the Yanks next season:

Hideki Matsui (if you think he's really any kind of outfielder at this point, I'm not going to argue with you, let's just agree that you're much more optimistic than I am.)

Jorge Posada (if you think he's a full-time catcher at this point, I'm not going to argue with you, but let's just agree that you're much more optimistic than I am.)

Johnny Damon (if you think he's really a centerfielder at this point, well, you get the idea)

Nick Swisher

In addition, it would be an absolute waste for a team to acquire a Mark Teixeira and plan on playing him only 80-90% of their games. Sure, the Yankees might not be done. I don't think Matsui or Posada are unloadable at this point, but Damon actually could be, which would make Swisher and Nady the corner OFs. Not sure how likely that is, who knows. 

In any case, what IS likely now is that the Mark Teixeira competition may now be a two-horse race. Among the big spenders, the White Sox and Cubs have no need or spot for him, and neither have expressed the desire either. The Mets will stick with Delgado. The Dodgers are probably going Manny w/r/t a big bat. The Angels and us are probably the only teams remaining that are really serious about Teixeira. This certainly makes it easier to acquire him, for those who do want to bring him on-board. For the Yankees, it's a decent move to increase flexibility and to bring on a bat at a cheap price (in players) that has the potential to bounce back and be pretty productive.

via assets.espn.go.com

Nah, it's not big news. This is just me signifying that I'm ready to talk about it.

There's two schools of thought on this acquisition, beyond the obvious. Well, the obvious first.

Teixeira is a legitimate middle-of-the-order anchor. He'll be 29 near the beginning of next season, and plays excellent defense at first base. Some 162 game averages: 40 2Bs, 36 HRs, 102 R, 121 RsBI (last two somewhat team-based, I know). .290/.378/.541 over his career. He's been very healthy over the course of his career, with games played since 2003: 146, 145, 162, 162, 132, 157. As much as any first baseman would be, he's a good investment over a number of years. He's been healthy and should age well. Right-handed, he should be able to take great advantage of the Monster. Left-handed, I imagine he'd be able to hit a lot of line drives to a big right-center field. 

First Option: Sign Tex, Trade Lowell.

So, we've signed Mark Teixeira to his required 42 year, 300 billion dollar contract. Done and done. We've got this greatly productive and defensively versatile youngish player in Kevin Youkilis (who is, in fact, older than Teixeira.) who can be moved to third base. The almost too-obvious solution to the log-jam is to trade the oldest and least-productive player. Couple caveats here: Lowell will be coming off of surgery and is 35. He also has $24M remaining over the next two years. He also has "no-trade protection" according to Cot's Contracts. 

Who would want Lowell? Well, what teams will be in the market for a 3b? The White Sox have Crede probably leaving via FA, and probably won't want to commit to a full year of either Uribe or Josh Fields. The Twins have several decent options at 3b, internally, but none of which are up to the level of a healthy Lowell. Cleveland could be interested, especially if they keep Peralta at SS rather than acquiring a better defensive option for the position. Lowell would be a defensive upgrade, easily, over Casey Blake, and Andy Marte probably isn't the answer. The Rangers, potentially? Doesn't seem like a smart move given the state of their pitching staff, but they might prefer Lowell over Ramon Vazquez. He'd represent an upgrade over Pedro Feliz for the Phillies. The Brewers could go with Lowell over Bill Hall. Offensively, Encarnacion can hack it at 3b for the Reds, but there are those who doubt he can hold up there on the defensive end. The Dodgers, depending upon whether they retain Blake. Giants? Doesn't seem smart for where they are right now, but he'd immediately become one of their biggest run producers. 

So, to recap: White Sox, Twins, Clevelands, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, and Giants. There's nothing to indicate that any of these teams are interested; it's just meant as a list of teams for whom Lowell would/could be an upgrade over their ML options in 2008, and who can potentially afford at least a large chunk of his remaining contract. All that being said, he's still going to be tough to move. 35, coming off of hip surgery? Teams aren't going to be banging down the door, and we shouldn't expect anything big in return unless he's packaged with something else.

Second Option: Sign Tex, Keep Lowell.

Lowell's health status is uncertain. It's not entirely unreasonable to think we'll have to keep him until he plays some ST games anyway. The problem with this scenario in the long-term is that only Youkilis would be asked to be defensively versatile. Signing Tex means 145-150 games of him at 1b, with 5-10 games in the DH spot. Youks would play the remaining games at 1b, several at 3b, and some, potentially, in LF or RF. The issue here is that keeping Lowell means we'll probably play Lowell more often than not, which means Youks might get the least games played amongst Lowell, Papi, Teixeira, Bay, and himself, and if he keeps up his production from this past season, he should see more PAs than everyone but Teixeira and Papi. This mitigates the upgrade Teixeira could represent. Some people have said they'd enjoy having Lowell as a RH-bat off the bench, but more often than not, it would be Youks who would be the bat off the bench, and he's potentially just too good to waste in that kind of role. 

I'm not a fan of this option, but if the FO is really as interested in Tex as has been reported, then it might be the option we go with, at least until such a time as Lowell proves healthy.

Conclusion.

So what do we do? Option 1, Option 2, or neither? Tex is going to be a LONG-term investment, and even if he doesn't get a 10-year contract, something in the neighborhood of 7-9 should be expected. He'll be signed through his mid-late 30s, without question. We also have Lars Anderson to consider. If he continues  to progress, conservatively, we could look for him to contribute at least by mid-2010 or the beginning of 2011. He's probably not going to play anything but 1b or DH. Do we block him, then trade him? Do we bring him along real slowly, then move Tex to the DH spot in 2011? We don't have a real projectable long-term solution at 3b, as opposed to Lars, who is looking better and better as time goes by.

We also have to consider that there's no guarantee that we sign Tex. The Yankees will probably be involved, no matter what they may be saying right now, and the Angels, if they're smart, will push hard to keep him in their lineup for a full season and many more. That's just two big-resource teams who could be involved. There's no telling who else might back the money truck up to his house in order to get him to sign. Thoughts?

via www.projo.com

DP: Because he's awesome, not because he's actually part of the story.

If you've noticed the fanshots by bsetcetera lately, you know there've been a lot of rumors and news about the Sox flying around thusfar in the offseason. I'm less than impressed by the quality of those tidbits (as opposed to the impressive tenacity displayed by bsetcetera in linking these rumors). Let's take them one by one, shall we?

A.J. Burnett = NO!

Unlike my esteemed diseased colleague, ecoli, I'm not wild about the idea of A.J. Burnett. He's going to cost a lot in years and dollars, and this article about Derek Lowe makes me think he'd be the better bet both in performance and health despite their differences in age and workloads. And this is anecdotal at best, but he seems like the kind of guy whose dedication isn't exactly consistent from week-to-week. 

Derek Lowe = YES?

If the previous paragraph doesn't tip you off, I'm not against signing Derek Lowe this offseason. I realize that there were very real "makeup" questions in his last couple seasons in Boston, and certainly he and the FO should be on the same page as far as those are concerned. However, if a consensus can be reached on that, then a 3-4 year deal for money in the low-to-mid teens almost seems prudent, even given our current economical situation.

Jason Varitek to the Tigers = HWa?

There are, if not every, many indications that the Tigers want to cut payroll this offseason. Sure, there are some pros for the Tigers in this: among a potential group of Dusty Ryan, Brandon Inge (even though he probably is going to be at 3b next season), and Jason Varitek, I'd be more inclined to want to trust a questionable pitching staff to Varitek. On the other hand, he throws no one out, and he's not going to be cheap, which plays against Detroit's budget concerns.

Jason Varitek returns to the Sox = HWa? Part 2.

You'll note I'm not in love with this either. Buch had success with Varitek once, and Daisuke and Beckett are developed enough as pitchers to not need his expertise, such as it is. He and Wake don't work together, and any pitchers we bring in would have shown success elsewhere with other catchers. That only leaves Jon Lester who could be assumed to have some stake or need of Jason Varitek behind the plate from a pitching standpoint. It could be a risk, but I'm inclined to believe that John Farrell and Jon Lester himself are at least as responsible for the steps Jon took this season as Varitek might be. I'm not saying I think he's bad at calling pitches and being a leader on the field. I think he's good at those things. I just don't think he's at all the only person out there who can be good at those things. It'll come down to price and years for me, because I also agree that the other options around are not a hell of a lot better in the short-term.

Matt Holliday = C'mon, seriously?

Don't get me wrong, I think he'd still be a great hitter outside of Coors. He's clearly made strides and separated himself from the other Coors products of the last several years (Garret Atkins, anyone?). The point is, is the difference between he and Jason Bay worth what we'd have to potentially send out with Bay? The answer to that question should invariably be no.

Kenshin Kawakami = Hmm, at best.

Intriguing. My concern would be the same as everyone's. Is he a Kuroda or an Igawa? Something in-between? He'd be an interesting lower-cost option to Burnett or Lowe. I'm not even sure such signings would be mutually exclusive. 

Mark Teixeira = We're gonna need a bigger boat.

I. Um. S. F. I got nothing. And so much. Let's just say I'm with those in the camp that Mike Lowell's injury does serious damage to his already somewhat questionable trade value. Close the book on that one for now.

Brett Myers = HAHAHAHAHAHA Really?

Upset about how he was treated in Boston? I'd cry for him, as he clearly expects, but I'm too busy laughing at him. I was sure the link would take me to the Onion or something. I'm upset about my treatment in every city in which I've been violent towards women. I mean, what do fans in those cities expect? I have to get my jollies somehow.

One hell of an ALCS, on the way to your first World Series appearance. To any Rays fans, savor the moment(s). As much as opposing fans like to imply as much, or to the effect, Sox fans have never taken such things for granted over the last few years. I know none of you will either.

{Longer post on tonight's game and the season on the whole, with obviously much more of a Sox focus, to come. Thanks to everyone on OTM for another great season and postseason. We'll be around all winter with opinions, horrible jokes (me), good jokes (ecoli), and overanalysis of winter moves (everyone)}

via d.yimg.com

All credit to the Rays.

That being said, we sucked eggs today. Lester wasn't Lester and I'm actually going to give him a pass on this, personally. No, NG, he wasn't sucking momentum. Do you guys remember the last time Lester threw more than 160+ innings in a season? That's right, it was never. If he's hitting a wall w/r/t command, I'm not sure it's something we can blame him for. He certainly didn't look like he was pitching hurt, unlike Becks. Just wasn't locating.

DP rolling into that dp in whatever the f inning it is that I can't bother to look up or remember just pissed me the heck off. Few things piss me off about DP, but trying to get a hit on those low-and-away pitches is one of those things. Wait a bit on that count, DP. We had a run in, and you don't need to just jump on Howell. He didn't look rattled because of the SF to me.

Paul Byrd "saved" the bullpen, so that they'd all be ready to go in case Wake gets pummeled tomorrow. My issue with him coming in today rather than, perhaps, to start the 5th inning of Game 2 is that we were already behind. They had the "NG-copyrighted" momentum before he came in. Yeah, he could come in and keep it close without having to use MDC or Oki or somebody, but a foolish vote of confidence in Becks, truly, is what still bothers the f out of me even after an a-kicking of a Game 3 @ Fenway. This also might mean Byrd couldn't start a possible Game 6 if we get that far. It can't be Becks, and I'm not sure who else it could be. That might not be worth worrying about.

I have about as little faith in Jason Varitek right now as I do in Sean Casey's ability to snag a hot shot down the line at 1b. And yes, that's my roundabout way of saying I continue to be pro Kotsay over Casey. 

I wasn't kidding in the thread. Rays: We get 2 outs rather than 3 in our innings, and you let us use DP, Youks, and Bay in the lineup over and over and over. I'm pretty sure we'd have a better shot. Much more balanced in that Rays' lineup.

On the plus side, look. Wake is going in Game 4, and he's absolutely got the ability ot keep the Rays off-balance. Game 5 is Daisuke, who DID keep the Rays off-balance in Game 1. We're not done yet, but the Rays made a huge statement with this game, and I can't remember where I heard it, but whoever said it is absolutely right: I'm among the many Sox fans who penciled in W's for Lester's starts, and this should throw off all those prognostications, a great accomplishment for the Rays.

Let's call it the "venting" thread.

Lester takes the mound vs. Garza, hopefully to get us back a series lead.

v.

Lineups:

Cora in at SS? Ells still at leadoff? Not sure, ladies and gents. Not sure. Cora has a .000 OPS vs. Matt Garza in the span of one game. Lowrie, the same, though I've got a heckuva lot more faith in Lowrie's hitting abilities. Still like Kotsay at 1b for defense.