Fredi Gonzalez answers some questions
Dan Le Batard asked Fredi 20 questions and you can read it here.
The one I want to focus on is this one:
"The stolen base. It doesn't equal runs. The risk is not worth the reward very often. An out is more valuable today than a single base. I've seen the stats, and I used to think that the stolen base was more important than it was. You have to pick your spots with it.''
Okay, which one of you bought Fredi The Book over the offseason.
Actually, this nothing wrong with stealing bases you just have to make sure you're successful about 70 to 75 percent of the time. Or something like that, if memory serves me correctly, and it so rarely does. Sure The Book is about 12 feet from me as I write this but I'm way too lazy to go thumb through it to find the exact number.
But he is very correct in that you have to pick your spots. Say BH Kim is on the mound and after three pitches the player is still standing on first, it brings to mind the question: What are you thinking?
Should the team found itself down two runs in the late innings with two outs and a runner on first with Willingham, Hermida, Ross or someone like that at the plate. That is not the time to attempt a steal of second.
I have no problem with the Marlins playing the percentages as long as the strategy doesn't turn into "a Bloop and a Blast". I'm more of a "Get 'em on, Get 'em over and Get 'em in" type of guy.
Your opinion may vary.
0 recs |
3
comments
Comments
The irony...
But since we generally think of baserunning as stealing second (which, to be fair, is almost certainly the most numerous occasion) and the bar is set higher than a lot of managers hit -- 73.5%, as Craig pretty much nails -- the overall feeling that people get from baserunning studies is that the numbers say you shouldn't.
But not only is that not true for the reasons given above, it's also almost never true about tactical studies. If there's one thing I've picked up from reading MGL's work at The Book blog, it's that everything should be regressed -- but if there's a second thing I've picked up, it's that game theory abounds in the in-game decision making that is being a manager. Yes, the bar might be 73.5%, but if you're only sending guys who are successful say 75% of the time, and only in situations where guys are successful on average of say 78% of the time, you're setting yourself up for being picked off or pitched out on. You can't always do the optimal thing, because it's only optimal in the context of every attempt. If you only steal when the numbers say you should, and never when they say you shouldn't, you're going to come out with sub-optimal results.
Luckily I don't think Fredi is at that point, most likely because I don't think he knows enough. Sometimes that's for the best.
by dan 2.0 on Feb 25, 2008 3:33 PM EST 0 recs
Here's a primer for Fredi:
If it's anybody else (except maybe Hermida), then don't.
by Matt Wilson on Feb 25, 2008 4:37 PM EST 0 recs
except before c
by brickell on
Feb 25, 2008 5:36 PM EST
up
0 recs











