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Prospects and Draft

Marlins Have Needed Prospects, but Not Succeeded With Them

Miami Marlins' Mike Stanton gestures as he speaks with members of the media, Monday, Feb. 13, 2012 in Miami. This slick son of a gun seems to be one of the few major success stories in the Marlins' draft history since 2002. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Earlier today I read an interesting piece on building through the draft by FanGraphs' Jim Breen. Breen shows a table of each team's production from homegrown players via FanGraphs WIns Above Replacement (fWAR) since the 2002 draft. Take a look at the table yourself:

TeamTotal WARAverage WAR
Boston Red Sox 100.3 4.36
San Francisco Giants 97.9 2.88
Los Angeles Dodgers 95.5 3.98
Milwaukee Brewers 86 3.91
Tampa Bay Rays 80.2 4.46
Detroit Tigers 78.7 2.25
Atlanta Braves 70.9 3.22
Oakland Athletics 70.8 2.83
Kansas City Royals 65.2 2.61
Cincinnati Reds 64.5 2.58
Colorado Rockies 63.7 2.45
Los Angeles Angels 60.2 2.15
Miami Marlins 59.1 1.48
Minnesota Twins 58 2.64
Washington Nationals 57.7 2.31
Arizona Diamondbacks 57.6 2.22
Toronto Blue Jays 54.8 2.19
Texas Rangers 48.7 2.32
San Diego Padres 44.7 1.44
Baltimore Orioles 41.5 1.73
Pittsburgh Pirates 40.3 2.02
New York Yankees 34.7 1.73
St. Louis Cardinals 30.9 0.97
New York Mets 30.8 1.62
Philadelphia Phillies 30.2 1.78
Houston Astros 24.2 1.51
Chicago Cubs 19.3 0.92
Cleveland Indians 15.5 0.65
Chicago White Sox 11.9 0.54
Seattle Mariners 8.9 0.45

The interesting part to me and to readers of this site is of course the placement of the (former) Florida Marlins, listed in bold.

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Yelich, Dominguez Make MLB Top 100 Prospects

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 27: Matt Dominguez #54 of the Florida Marlins is congratulated after scoring  during a game against the Washington Nationals at Sun Life Stadium on September 27, 2011 in Miami Gardens, Florida.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Yesterday, MLB.com released its Top 100 prospects list. Despite the lack of depth of the Marlins' system, the team did end up with two players in the top 100 prospects in baseball. Unsurprisingly, Christian Yelich tops the list among Marlins, coming in at 35th on the list. Surprisingly, Matt Dominguez still found his way on the list, coming in at 87th.

As has been pointed out both at SB Nation's Minor League Ball and our very own site by our prospect expert Eric Weston, Yelich stands a (small) league ahead of the four players at the level of Dominguez in the organization. Let's see how Jonathan Mayo and the rest of the MLB.com crew evaluated Yelich and Dominguez and compare that to how Eric W. and I see them.

Yelich

Here is a tad of what was said about Yelich by MLB.com.

Upside potential: A No. 3-type hitter who competes for batting titles while also driving in runs and stealing bases, like a John Olerud with speed.

What did Eric W. see in Yelich?

Yelich makes hitting look easy with his smooth left-handed swing and disciplined plate approach. Unlike some other tall left-handed batters, Yelich is able to combat the inside fastball due to his quick hands and plus bat speed. His swing won’t enable him to generate enormous power, although he did manage to put up a decent .171 ISO last year.

Most of what has been said about Yelich is in agreement. I have heard him consistently described as a natural hitter with an excellent swing. He also is a good baserunner with enough speed and athleticism that the team moved him to center field despite his awkward throwing mechanism and his first baseman size. Eric W. mentioned some concern about his platoon splits, but Yelich otherwise seems like an excellent player who should be on his way to the majors in the next two or three seasons.

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Fish Stripes 2012 Top Prospects, #6-10

OMAHA, NE - JUNE 29:  Starting pitcher Rob Rasmussen #27 of the UCLA Bruins pitches against the South Carolina Gamecocks during game 2 of the men's 2010 NCAA College Baseball World Series at Rosenblatt Stadium on June 29, 2010 in Omaha, Nebraska.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Last week's set of prospects included a trio of high-ceiling prospects dominating the lower levels of the minors, an untested hard-throwing starter, and a nearly major league-ready infielder. The next five best prospects in the Marlins farm system lack the same future potential, but are still a respectable group of prospects that could one day become solid contributors at the big league level.

6. Chad James, LHP
Drafted: 2009 1st round, 18th overall from Oklahoma HS
Age: 20 Height: 6'3" Weight: 185 lbs.

Chad James is a difficult prospect for me to gauge. He had a disappointing 2010 debut with Greensboro, posting a 5.12 ERA in 114 innings pitched, with a 8.3 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9. Despite having control issues, James displayed the same low to mid-90s fastball that impressed scouts while he was in high school. The Marlins made attempts to smooth out his inconsistent delivery in 2011, but the results were mixed. In 149 innings pitched for high-A Jupiter, James walked only 51 batters (a 3.1 BB/9) and struck out 124 (a 7.5 K/9). By the end of the season, his fastball velocity had dropped to the high-80s. James also throws a decent slider and change-up, but neither pitch is a plus offering. At the moment, I see him as a future #3 or #4 pitcher on a major league staff, although if he can regain velocity on his fastball and continue to improve his command, James could become a valuable #2 starter.

7. Rob Rasmussen, LHP
Drafted: 2010 2nd round, 73rd overall from UCLA
Age: 22 Height: 5'10" Weight: 155 lbs.

Drafted a year earlier than UCLA teammates Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole, Rasmussen spent his first year of professional baseball putting up decent, if unremarkable numbers in high-A Jupiter. Rasmussen held a 3.64 ERA in 148 innings and his weak peripherals (7.2 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9) suggest that he may lack the raw stuff to be more than a back of the rotation starter. Rasmussen's fastball command was inconsistent over the course of last season, but he did maintain a low-90s velocity. He has a good array of off-speed pitches, including a strong 12-6 curveball. Unfortunately, Rasmussen is held back by his small 5'10" build and may eventually be forced into the bullpen. If the Marlins do decide to convert Rasmussen, he could quickly move through the system and contribute in the majors by 2013.

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Fish Stripes 2012 Top Prospects, #1-5

The Miami Marlins farm system has lost much of its luster in the past few years, dropping to one of the weaker overall systems in baseball. This has partly been the result of graduating excellent top tier talent, including Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, and Gaby Sanchez. But the Marlins have also shown an unwillingness to spend a great deal of money on the draft and the result is a system devoid of impact talent. In 2011, the Marlins only spent $3.9 million on the draft versus the league average of $7.9 million. With their second round pick, the team selected Adam Conley, while the top high school left-handed pitcher, Daniel Norris, was still available (Toronto drafted Norris two picks later). Norris cost a considerable amount more to sign than Conley, but he rivaled 1st round selection Jose Fernandez in talent. The 2009 and 2010 drafts are similar stories - the Marlins spent an average of $4.3 million versus the league average of $6.4 million. The scarcity of talent in the upper minors is a cause for serious concern, particularly the lack of high-ceiling pitching prospects.

The Marlins will have the opportunity to address this issue with the ninth overall pick in the 2012 draft. Most of the promise in the farm system currently lies at the bottom, with a number of toolsy high school players just beginning their professional careers. The Marlins’ single-A affiliate, the Greensboro Grasshoppers, won the South Atlantic League title thanks to the efforts of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Jacob Realmuto. Unfortunately, these players are multiple years away from donning the Miami Marlins uniform. On the bright side, the 2012 top prospect list is a small improvement over last year’s group. The system stands to improve further next season too, as only Matt Dominguez, Scott Cousins, and Jose Ceda are likely to graduate to the majors.

Without further ado, here are my selections for the top five Marlins prospects:

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