FishStripes: FanPosts

SB Nation Survey + Chance to donate $500 to a charity of this community's choice

2010-03-20T00:47:55Z

>> Take SB Nation Survey

Hello sports fans! We're always striving to provide you with the best experience possible and it's been quite some time since we checked in with you.

So we're rolling out this survey to learn more about you and your sports world. It should only take about 10 minutes to complete.

We really appreciate your time and this is also going to help make a donation to a good cause.

By next Thursday (3/25) at 11:59pm PST the site that has the highest percentage of their community filling out the attached survey about their sports interests and consumption will win $500 to donate to a charity of their choice. We will leave it up to the discretion of the community manager(s) of the winning blog to decide how to choose the particular charity.

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Opening Day line up

2010-03-15T14:04:48Z

What is everyone's predictions for the opening day line up?
I think it should go like this:

Coghlan LF

Ross CF

Hanley SS

Cantu 3B

Uggla 2B

Sanchez 1B

Baker C

Carroll RF

Johnson P

Thoughts?

I got Ross in CF and Carroll in RF- I think they need to go ahead and give him a shot now. Maybin is still struggling and i think day-to-day BC could be a very productive player. He is already the best outfielder we have and he has proven if given AB's constantly he is going to produce. Look what he has already done in spring training with a chance to hit a few days in a row.

Prospect Smackdown: Davis vs. Freeman vs. Morrison

2010-03-13T18:48:07Z

Hey guys, I'm a regular poster over at Amazin Avenue, I've posted here before but mostly I lurk here from time to time. So I wrote up this John Sickels-style Smackdown and figured you all might be interested. Enjoy.

With so much of the talk during ST revolving around rising stars, I thought the time was ripe for another Prospect Smackdown. And where better to focus than first base, with 3 teams in the NL East nearly ready to graduate young first base prospects, all of whom are big, athletic lefties with similar profiles, figuring to anchor their respective lineups for years to come. As usual, I'll try to be as impartial as possible here.

Prospect Smackdown: Ike Davis vs. Freddie Freeman vs. Logan Morrison

BACKGROUND & INTANGIBLES

Davis: The son of former Yankee reliever Ron Davis, Ike Davis was drafted 18th overall by the Mets back in 2008 and signed for $1.575M. This came after a decorated career at Arizona State which included Freshman of the Year, All-Pac 10 & All-American honors and an ASU Team MVP award over fellow Sun Devil Brett Wallace; he was also the first freshman to ever lead the illustrious Pac-10 in RBI's and served as a middle of the order presence (as well as closer) during two National Championship runs. Ike is known as a hard worker who exudes confidence and is driven to live up to his bloodlines.

Freeman: Frederick Freeman was a second round draftee (78th overall) by the Braves in 2007, signing for just over $400K. Freeman was a highly touted high school player out of SoCal, committing to college baseball powerhouse Cal State-Fullerton before being drafted. He dropped in the draft a bit due to concerns about an 'aloof' approach to the game. Much like Davis, Freeman was known to play at first and corner OF and even pitched out of the 'pen. Also like Davis, he is now well-regarded for his work ethic and drive.

Morrison: Logan Morrison was selected back in the 2005 draft by the Marlins in the (believe it or not) 22nd round (666th overall). However, the explanation is that Morrison, while a strong high school player out of Louisiana, was not particularly high on national draft boards. The Marlins selected him as part of the now defunct Draft-and Follow process and Morrison went on to star at Maplewood Community College (Albert's alma mater) then signed for $225K. Morrison is also known for his solid makeup and good work ethic and, like Davis, is an extremely confident player.

ADVANTAGE: You really can't go wrong here, they're all hard workers, praised for their good makeup. I guess you give a nod to the Marlins for saving a ton of dough by effectively utilizing the DFE process but as far as the players go this one has got to be even.

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PHYSICALITY & TOOLS

Davis: Ike is 6'4", 215lbs, a lefty thrower and hitter, born on March 22, 1987. His best tool is his raw power as witnessed in this recent ST slam; his smooth uppercut stroke (view below) affords him light-tower power. On the flipside, it can get long, leading to a lot of strikeouts and he doesn't often drive the ball to the opposite field. Davis' other plus tool is his arm strength; as the ASU closer Ike worked in the low 90's. He possesses a projectable frame but is thought of by scouts as more of a baseball player than a raw athlete due to his below average footspeed. Though needing more consistency, Davis is considered a natural at first with the potential for plus defense. Davis' only major injury came in '07 when he was forced to undergo wrist surgery to remove bone chips.

Freeman: Freeman is listed at 6'5", 220lbs (though Mike Newman, of the invaluable Scouting the Sally thinks more like 6'2"-6'3"). He's a lefty hitter and righty thrower and he was born on September 12, 1989. Freeman's best tool is his raw hitting ability. He possesses a superb mixture of contact, developing power and strong plate discipline which combined with his compact stroke (view below) leads to far fewer strikeouts than most power hitters. At 20, Freeman has a big frame with the potential for more strength as he matures, though he will never be mistaken for a speedster. Like Davis, he possesses a power arm, hitting 90+mph on the mound in HS. He is an average defender at first and while he's been mostly healthy, Freeman was slowed by a nagging wrist injury during the '09 season.

Morrison: Morrison is 6'4" (I've also seen 6'2"), 245lbs, a lefty thrower and hitter, born on August 25, 1987. Depending who you ask, Morrison's top tool is either his tremendous plate disciple, his potentially plus power or his excellent raw hitting ability. Though a little long, Morrison has a nice level, line drive cut (view below) which explains his tremendous 20% LD rate between '08-'09 (compared to 17% for Davis & 15% for Freeman) and allows him to drive the ball to all fields. What's more, Morrison accumulated nearly 20 more walks than strikeouts in '09, showcasing his superb on-base skills. Bulkier than the other two, Morrison is not known for his defensive range at first nor in the OF, though he also has a very strong arm and his hands have reportedly gotten a lot better since he was drafted. Morrison has been very healthy but was sidelined early in '09 after suffering a fracture in his wrist. Noticing a trend here?

ADVANTAGE: Davis is probably the best athlete and fielder of the bunch with the most raw power but Morrison has stronger pure hitting skills and far better plate discipline. Freeman is a mixture of both so I think he gets the nod here.

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PERFORMANCE & SKILLS

Davis: Ike started his pro career in '08 with a strange stint in the NY-Penn League where he went homerless in 215 ab's. He still drove the ball exceptionally well (18.5% LD rate vs. 17.3% in '09) but needed to get that FB rate up. Fortunately he did just that in '09 jumping from 34% flyballs in '08 to 43% in '09 which led to 19 hrs, while batting a robust .309 in his first taste of AA and following that with a stellar performance (.341/.394/.565) in the highly competitive AFL. On the negative side, he struck out 112 times which when coupled with only 61 walks gives cause to worry about his AVG and OBP as he moves up the ladder. Add in his poor platoon split for the trifecta (only .242/.301/.371 against lefties in '09) and suddenly there's cause for some concern.

Freeman: Freeman answered pre-draft concerns about his "energy for the game" by holding his own in the GCL at 17, then bursting onto the scene in full-season ball in '08. Freeman mashed 18 hr's while batting .316 and set the Rome Braves single season hits record. His '09 wasn't so explosive as mid-summer wrist problems sapped his power (.405 SLG vs .524 in '08) but he continued to cut his impressive strikeout total to only 60 vs. 37 walks. Freeman also improved his performance against lefties in '09, with a difference of just .003 points in his OPS splits. He will need to prove that it was mostly the wrist, not advanced competition, that slowed him in AA (as well as the AFL).

Morrison: After an uninspiring pro debut in '06, Morrison too burst into full-season baseball, blasting 23 homers in '07 and exhibiting the ability to drive the ball to all fields (view below). He followed with another impressive performance in '08 where he hit 13 hrs in the pitcher-friendly FSL and batted .332 with a very strong K:BB ratio. Last season, he improved even more in that regard posting a very impressive 63 walks to only 46 strikeouts. However, Morrison's power numbers took a step back in '09 as he slugged only .442 with 8 hrs. Many feel, like Freeman, he too was a victim of wrist woes however, some worry that his consistently low FB rates (33% career vs. Freeman's 38% and Davis' 40%) coupled with high GB rates point to a 15-20 hr hitter, not a 30+ hr stud. He too has had big problems with lefties to this point.

Advantage: You can't punish Freeman and Morrison who both had nagging injuries holding them back, but ultimately Davis put on a far more impressive overall performance in the ever important Double-A litmus test so I have to give him the edge here.

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PROJECTION:

Davis: John Sickels (of the excellent SB Nation Minor League Ball Blog) called him "Lyle Overbay with an excellent glove." I suppose that's a pretty good middle ground comp, though I think that's shortchanging his power a bit. I'd say his absolute ceiling is a great fielder, very good power, lots of K's and low AVG, basically a Carlos Pena-lite type player. Worst case, he can't hit lefties at all and strikeouts kill him: Mike Jacobs.

Freeman: At age 20 you've got to figure he's got more room to develop. So to me, his ceiling is along the same trail that Joey Votto is blazing: 25-30 hrs, .300+ AVG, nearly .400 OBP, equal batting splits and solid defense at first. He'll have to work on taking some more walks but it could definitely happen. More pessimistic, his power stalls out and he's a lefty version of Conor Jackson.

Morrison: His bat looks real, his plate discipline is impressive, It all depends on how you view his power. He clearly drives the ball to all fields better than the other two but will that equate to homers or a lot of doubles in the left center gap? If he develops like Marlins fans think, his ceiling looks a lot like Justin Morneau. However, if you're worried about those low FB rates he tops out as a 18-24hr guy in the majors, think Sean Casey. If the HR power of '07 doesn't reappear whatsoever, think James Loney.

Advantage: This really depends what you're looking for. I'd say Morrison's skills are more of a sure thing to translate while Freeman's ceiling is higher. If all goes right for Morrison he may challenge that idea but to me Freeman's greater room for improvement due to age clinches it.

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SUMMARY:

2009 Cumulative Stats	AVG	OPS	HR	K:BB
Davis (A+/AA)	.299	.905	19	109:56
Freeman (A+/AA)	.278	.766	8	59:37
Morrison (AA)	.277	.813	8	46:63

Let's go to the Prospect Rankings: In their most recent Top 100 BA sees Morrison ahead at #20, Freeman at #32 and Ike at #62. Though all are ranked at 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Prospect Guru John Sickels rates Morrison as a B+ and attributes the power slippage to his injury. Ditto Freddie Freeman but he raises development concerns. He gives Ike a B but says he sees more "solid regular than future star".

BP/Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock list interestingly places Morrison and Freeman at #51 and #52 respectively, Davis at #87.

If I'm starting an organization today and I need to pick a cornerstone first baseman, I take Freddie Freeman. And my main determining factor is age. They've all put up impressive performances at a high level, each exhibits differing yet very valuable skills and it's very interesting all of the similarities linking the three. But the biggest variation to me is the fact that Freeman has 2 more years to develop beyond Davis and Morrison yet he is already at or near their same levels of performance. Next I'd probably take Morrison for his superior raw hitting skills but IMO Davis' seemingly wide gap in defense makes this closer than the above rankings portray. The funny thing is that this comparison is close enough that any of these guys could easily end up as the best or worst of the three. However it shakes out, it should be a lot of fun to watch these three guys graduate into the NL East in the next year or so.

Poll

Who do you choose?

Bullpen Banter's Marlins Preview and Top 25 Prospects

2010-03-04T20:19:11Z

Hello Marlins Fans! My name is Michael Herrick and I've been an SBN member of various sites for 5 years now. Those of you that frequent John Sickels minorleagueball.com will probably recognize me from running the Community Prospect list this year. I recently partnered with three other long time SBN members(JD Sussman, alskor, mrkupe) to start a website, Bullpen Banter.

About Us from our site:

The Bullpen Banter Team is dedicated to providing outstanding baseball analysis from various points of view. Our website hosts both a chat room and a forum so our readers can constantly interact with a knowledgeable and vibrant baseball community. Each writer represents a different area in the country which provides a unique ability to gauge the thoughts of both the mainstream media and the fans in the region. Additionally, we are always open to new ideas and voices, so feel free to submit a guest piece.

We are currently previewing each team by division, starting with the NL and AL East. Our Marlins preview is up, where we examine the outlook for 2010, the best and worst moves, and prospects to watch in 2010. We take a round table approach to topics giving us differing viewpoints on the same article.

Here is a peek at the Prospect to Watch section of the preview:

Michael Herrick: A 2nd round pick in 2008, Brad Hand showed strong K/9 numbers in the Sally League and he pitched a bit better than the surface numbers indicate as his 4.23 FIP vs. 4.86 ERA shows. He needs to tighten up his control a bit as the walk rate wasn't ideal last year, but he's from Minnesota and cold weather players can take a little longer to develop. Keep an eye on the walk rate and how his other peripherals hold up as he moves to the FSL. Being a pitcher's league anyway, we need to see some marked improvement not just incremental advances to know if we're looking at a breakout year or just a pitcher friendly boost to the stats.

Al Skorupa: Apparently 3B Matt Dominguez's stock has fallen... for a reason I can't discern. He was still #52 overall on my personal top 100. I completely buy his bat and his defense is fantastic. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him go out and kill the ball this year, skyrocketing up the prospect lists.

We also have our Top 25 Prospects for 2010 posted with the rest of the Top 100 to follow over the next couple of weeks.

Here is a sample for Mike Stanton:

Notre Dame High School has produced its fair share of notable baseball players. The most famous include Cy Young winner Jack McDowell, 1968 first overall draft pick Tom Foli, and the general manager of the '92,'93, & '08 World Series champions, Pat Gillick. Giancarlo Cruz- "Michael" Stanton has the potential to be among those names with his combination of athleticism and elite power. Stanton is young but relatively polished for a former football star who didn't concentrate fully on baseball until being drafted by the fins 79th overall in 2007. Stanton has deposited 68 baseballs over the fence in first three seasons and is arguably the fourth or fifth best player today from his draft class.

Steve Kuperman: Grade A easy for me, No. 4 on my list currently. If he had played in the FSL the entire year nobody would be asking questions, as he managed to absolutely crush the ball in one of the worst hitters' parks in the minors while cutting his strikeouts substantially. The guy gets tons of praise for work ethic.

JD Sussman: I disagree with your point on Stanton's contact issues. While he has been great thus far, I foresee his contact issues and poor pitch recognition limiting him offensively. What keeps him ranked so highly is that he should have solid defensive value in both his arm and his range. For me, he has the highest bust rate of any player int he top 10. If those issues really hurt him, in a years time he could be pretty far down the list, despite his accomplishments at a young age. I have him slightly lower at 9.

Michael Herrick: I can understand you knocking Stanton down a few spots due to the contact/strikeout issues, JD. I know the High A stint is a SSS, but his K rate wasn't horrible there. I think as long as he's not rushed too far, too fast the plate discipline can improve some, at least into a somewhat manageable "less than 30% K rate" type of range. I guess I tend to see him as more of a .260 hitter in the bigs as opposed to something in the .230 range. That power is just such a valuable tool though, I really can't see him lower than 5.

Al Skorupa: Strikeouts a concern? Yes. Special bat despite that? Absolutely.

His 80 power is something that we can be fairly certain will come with him to the majors. He does enough other things well to still project as an offensive force despite some questions about his contact ability, patience and strikeouts.

Stanton is plenty athletic and a good fielder. He could very easily end up the best major leaguer out of the top 5 prospects, but I'm not ready to bet on that just yet.

So if you have a chance, stop by and let us know what you think. If you're interested in a guest writing spot, contact us and we will give you that opportunity.

Thanks for your time,

The Bullpen Banter Team

The Whole Enchilada

2010-03-03T20:18:39Z

Marlins fans, now is the time to get excited.

We have a great, I repeat, GREAT young baseball team. Our lineup should be solid all the way through, our bullpen is loaded with guys who can be very effective, and we have seven starting pitchers with serious potential.

In 2010, the Florida Marlins can absolutely challenge for the whole enchilada. Let us compare the Marlins with last year's champ, the New York Yankees.

The Lineup

Coghlan Cano

Maybin Jeter

Hanley Teixeira

Cantu A-Rod

Uggla Swisher

Ross Posada

Baker Gardner

Morrison Granderson

The Horses

JJ CC

Nolasco Petitte

Volstad A.J.

Sanchez Vasquez

West Joba

The Bullpen

MacDougal Rivera

VandenHurk Hughes

Nunez Marte

Sanches Gaudin

Call me crazy, but I don't see a huge gap here. The Marlins can hit and pitch with the Yanks.

Play ball!

Poll

Can the Marlins win the Series?

Yes

15 votes

No

2 votes

17 votes | Poll has closed

2010 NL East Fan Projections: SPs

2010-02-28T16:21:21Z

2010 NL East Fan Projections: SPs

This is a link to a post I did over at the Braves blog Talking Chop about some of FanGraphs' 2010 fan projections, including projections for the Marlins' starters. I thought it would be relevant to you guys, so head on over to take a look if you're interested. There are lots of cool graphs, too. (The Marlins rotation ranks as the 3rd best in the division by these projections. Feel free to comment if you disagree--I'm trying to get fans of other teams to give their opinions as well.)

The Four Best Words in the English Language: Catchers and Pitchers Report

2010-02-20T19:24:28Z

Well, this week has been one of the most revitalizing weeks. Since October, I as a Marlins fan have had to sulk and be content with religiously checking the trades, the blogs, and the speculation. I have also watched in disgust as Johnny Damon has been playing a fool, Hideki Matsui not being resigned by the Yanks and the Marlins not signing any major leaguers. But, this has all the promise of being a competitive year in every division, instead of the manslaughters that are usually found. I only have one thing to say:

Let the games begin.

Fan Fest Pics

2010-02-16T00:46:33Z

A few selections as well as this nifty link to my facebook album.

If you were there and saw this booth, you probably saw me too. Way to say hi... no, really, I get it... it's cool.

Fan favorites Johnny Bakes and BC.

A little crazy that this was all going on just six days after the Super Bowl.

First of the Town Hall meetings. From left to right: Jack, Nolasco, Cody, Boooooooooo, HanRam, Beinfest, BC, Johnny Bakes.

Second Town Hall. Left to right: Mike Hill, Volstad, JJ, Booooooooooo, Coghlan, Beinfest, His Name Is Dan Uggla, and Fredi. A few minutes into the meeting, Uncle Wes showed up too.

Hopper and Miller weren't cool enough to be in the Town Halls, so they had to toil away in the autograph sweatshop.

Oh hey, how'd that get in there... It's All About The U.

And finally, the pièce de résistance...

wooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Florida Marlins- the Heartbreaker team?

2010-02-15T00:55:00Z

Today, to fit in with the Valentine's Day theme, ESPN Classics ran four baseball games that they thought were the four greatest "heartbreakers" in baseball history. The four games were

1973- One-game playoff between Red Sox and Yankees

1997- World Series Game 7

1986- World Series Game 6 between the Red Sox and the Mets (the famous "ball between the legs" game)

2003- NLCS Game 6

Of particular note, the Marlins were on the winning end of two of these games. Naturally, the Steve Bartman incident is here, but I was wondering why the 1997 World Series game was included as well. Yes, the Marlins tied the game in the bottom of the ninth inning, and later won the game, but is that really one of the most heartbreaking moments in baseball history? Do you think the Marlins have a reputation as "heartbreakers" considering two of these games involved the Marlins?

Fan Fest

2010-02-12T21:40:06Z

Florida Marlins 15th annual fan fest! Saturday February 13, 2010, Tomorrow! You really got to be there. Come out and enjoy a fun day at Sun Life stadium and our favorite baseball team! Weather should be good and nothing beats a nice day with the Fish.

Are any of you going or planning to go?

I hope to be there, and would love to see some of my fellow FishStripers there as well. I'll be in my Marlins gear and hat. Haven't been to one in a while, so I'm really excited about it.

Predictions Group

2010-02-06T22:42:47Z

Hey everyone this is Brandon C. from SB Nation's Yankees Blog Pinstripe Alley. I was wondering if anyone would like to join our standings prediction group. The group is open to any SB nation writer or reader and you get to compete with everyone in SB Nation and see who makes the most accurate pre-season predictions.

You can sign up here http://www.fan-exchange.com/signup.asp

You can join the group here http://www.fan-exchange.com/my/headtoheadadd.asp

The Group ID is 8

The Group Password is mlbsbnation

Please make your username your SB Nation name

Good luck and hope to see you there!

Uggla to stick around for '10

2010-01-21T21:31:26Z

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-marlinsspending&prov=ap&type=lgns

I'm sure there are some situations in which he would still be traded, but it's still nice to hear that we are at least promising to keep our talent around for a strong run. Uggla's not my favorite type of player, but he fills a valuable hole in this team's production, and you can't say enough about that. Here's to hoping we can keep him around after 2010 also.

Who are our rivals?

2010-01-21T01:32:51Z

Hey guys, I'm a Dolphin-Marlin-Heat fan. Some of you may know me from the Phinsider (Dolphins blog). About a month ago, I put this post up on Peninsula is Mightier (Heat blog), but I forgot to do it here, so here goes:

Who are our rivals? I honestly have no idea. I do know that some division rivals may include the Phillies, Braves, and Mets. But who else? Which is our BIGGEST rival? And is there any team outside of the division, or a team that I did not mention above?

Thanks, GO MARLINS!!!

Jim Thome

2010-01-18T22:33:42Z

Has anybody noticed Jim Thome is still a free agent? What a grab for the Fish!
Pinch hitter, first base, whatever. He is who he is. Spend our money. Go for the good ones without just writing it off as being too expensive. Sometimes you get what you pay for. Go for the Gold!
If we can't get a great pitcher, then get a great hitter. He healed up the end of last season and got some great coaching from a good team. Is it too much to ask?

Marlins sign Josh Johnson to 4-year extension!!!!

2010-01-14T23:10:28Z

YES!!!! The Marlins finally got it done today, locking up JJ to a 4-year extension worth $39 million. That is right around the same amount that Zack Greinke got the year before he won the Cy Young. I'm pretty sure that JJ was looking for the same kind of deal that Greinke got, so it looks like all sides will be very happy with this deal.

Now the Marlins have Hanley and JJ locked up and can build a team around them, but the important thing is that both of our superstars will be in (Miami) Marlins uniforms when we open the new stadium in 2012. The timing couldn't have been more predictable after the MLB and MLBPA ruled yesterday that the Fish had to spend more $$.

Why is Baseball Forcing the Florida Marlins to Spend? They’re Successful.

2010-01-13T22:33:38Z

"It’s often mentioned the Marlins have the league’s lowest payroll. What is not often mentioned? They’re winning. The Marlins won 87 games in 2009. They won 84 games in 2008 with just a $21.8 million payroll. If you want proof that spending money does not necessarily equal success, see the Cubs and Mets.

Florida games the system. They fleece other teams of their best prospects, develop and use them while their cost is low and trade the subsequent stars for more prospects. They field generally competitive teams on a low budget. Maybe twice a decade they supplement with some veterans and make a World Series run. They should be the example for small market franchises."

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2010/01/13/why-is-baseball-forcing-the-florida-marlins-to-spend-theyre-successful/

That is our salvation. We game the system. There is no other way to compete in a world dominated by the Yankees and the Red Sox.

The Red Sox and the Yankees were behind all this. They were unhappy that Loria was eating caviar while the Yankees were funding the Marlins payroll.

But in lands of the Mets, Phillies and Nationals, they are uncomfortable. If we gave them such a hard time with a 35 million payroll, what are we going to do with a 50 million dollar payroll. Beat their butts that's what:

Bad News for Mets: Marlins Ordered to Spend More Money

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/sports/Bad-News-for-Mets-Marlins-Ordered-to-Spend-More-Money-81314392.html

I came across similar articles from the Phillies and Nationals

Florida Marlins All-Decade Team

2010-01-02T17:40:13Z

Since everyone else has been posting all decade lists, I thought it would be fun to take a stroll down memory lane and honor the best Florida Marlins of the decade. There really is nothing scientific or definitve about this list. It was just me searching through the 10 years of Marlin statistics on baseball-reference.com and making a judgement as to who the best players were. Anyway, as a quick note: for a player to be eligible for this list, he has to have been on the team for a period longer than one year. The rationale is to keep off the list players who were merely rentals, and I think it would be kinda cheap to just have a bunch of players on the “all-decade” list who were only on the team for one out of the 10 years. So without further ado….

Catcher: Miguel Olivo. This was without a doubt the hardest position to fill. Looking through the past 10 years, the Marlins seem to have a “rent-a-catcher” approach. I-Rod (’03) and Paul Lo Duca (’05) were alright, but only for one year (making them ineligible), and Charles Johnson had one good year and one terrible year. In fact, Olvio, with two serviceable years in 2006 and 07 is the best option. During his tenure with the Fish, he had a .249 avg and 32 total homers. I wondered why no one else posted a list like this for the Marlins. I think this was the reason. It gets better from this, folks, trust me. Honorable mentions: Johnson, me making an eligibility exception for I-Rod.

1st Base: Derrek Lee. Told you it got better. A Marlin from 1998-2003, During the decade he had a .276 avg with the Fish, hit greater than 20 HRs all four years during his Marlin stay in the decade and thanks to healthy walk totals, had an OPS+ of 125 during those 4 years. For all of that, he was a great defender as well. Interestingly, he was never an all-star during his Marlin tenure. Oh well. He would be legitimately on the “all-decade” list for a lot of teams, but he is especially aided by the fact that the Marlins haven’t really had anyone else after him. I mean, you didn’t expect to see Hee Seop Choi on the list, did you? Honorable mention: Jeff Conine for sentimentality sake.

2nd Base: Luis Castillo. This one was tough, between Castillo and Dan Uggla. What made it tough was the fact that they are such different ball players. Castillo was the better small ball player (From 2000-05, Castillo has a .378 OBP and averaged about 35 steals per game) and was a three time gold glove winner, while Uggla was the better power hitter (From 2006-09, Uggla averaged a bit more than 30 HRs a year as a second baseman). They both were all stars. I gave Castillo the edge because he was here longer and was the starter on a World Series winning team. Honorable mention: Uggla.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez. Duh. From 2006-09, he has shown there is nothing he can not do. Rookie of the Year, batting champion, power hitter, base stealer. He is the best shortstop in the game right now. And the cherry on top: the Marlins even signed him to a long term deal. That is impressive in and of itself. He even has taken strides to improve his defense. The future looks bright in large part because of Ramirez. Honorable mention: Alex Gonzalez, the solid, but unspectacular SS from 2000-05.

3rd Base: Mike Lowell. Even before 2003, he was a good ball player. He had an OPS+ greater than 100 every year from 2000 to 2004. During those 5 years, he averaged about 25 HRs, batted .280, and was a three time all-star. His fabulous 2003 season is remarkable. His 2005 season was marred by injury. But even so, the Marlins were able to trade him away to the Red Sox and still get Ramirez (see above). Honorable mention: Jorge Cantu.

OF (1): Miguel Cabrera. Yes, this is going to include Cabrera’s time as a third baseman, but both he and Lowell should be on the list, so I’ll include all his stats as if he played in the OF the entire time (and trying to bifurcate his stats accurately would want me to pull my hair out). And what stats they were! From the time he burst onto the scene as a 20 year old in 2003, he was nothing but awesome in a Marlin uniform. 138 HRs in 5 years, greater than 110 RBI in his four full years in Florida, and he even batted great than .320 three years in a row, from 2005-07.

OF (2): Cliff Floyd. Remember Floyd? He played on the team from ’07 to ’02. Only ’00-’02 will be considered for this list. During that time, he was nothing short of impressive. During his two and a half years in this decade with the Fish, he hit for power (hitting 22 HR in ’00, 31 in ’01, and 18 in a half season in ’02), and average (he hit better than .300 during that span). He even stole 24 bases in 2000 for good measure. It’s a shame injuries derailed his career, but he was successful when he was out on the field. The Marlins have a mess of outfielders who had a good couple of years on the team, so while Floyd may be an esoteric choice, he was better than any of the other guys.

OF (3): Juan Pierre. Another tough choice for the team. Pierre did some things really well. He was a good contact hitter and an amazing base stealer during his tenure with the Marlins. But, he also did some things especially poorly, like walk and hit for power. Ultimately, the 2003 World Series team was built around the speed of him and Castillo at the top of the line up. He led the league in steals in 2003 and also hits in 2004. So, his selection is not without merits, and the other guys are not without faults of their own. Honorable mentions for all outfield spots: Josh Willingham, a good power hitter from the post-WS period, Preston Wilson, the power hitter Pierre was traded straight up for, and Cody Ross, a balanced power hitter on the current team.

Some time next week, whenever I get some time (probably next Saturday), I’ll post my opinions on the pitchers of the decade.

I'm very much interested in what you all have to say on the matter. Did I leave off your favorite player? Feel free to say hateful things about me. Remember, my goal is just to start some chatter!

PS: how often do you get to use bifurcate casually in a sentence?

What we should do during the offseason......

2009-12-28T21:29:06Z

With all these teams moving big time players around, we need to move some guys around. Personally, I am glad that we gave Jeremy Hermida away. We gave him a lot of opportunities to prove himself, but it has not done anything about it. I believe in Brett Carol because he understands how to play the game. He is a tremendous fielder and he got some huge hits for us last year. All he needs to do is hit consistently and he will be a great all-around player. One move that I think is necessary is to get rid of Dan Uggla. He has a lot of power, but he does not hit the ball consistently. Not only that, he is a horrible fielder. With him gone, we can move Chris Coghlan to second and we can start Bonifacio at center and move Maybin to left. And maybe, just maybe, we can get a good deal for Dan Uggla that includes a good third-baseman so we can move Cantu back to first where he belongs.

You may think I am crazy, but I know what I am talking about.

Break down of Marlin's top 7 hitting specs

2009-12-09T02:59:00Z

1) Mike Stanton

You hate to say a guy is a sure-fire allstar, but, it doesn't get much better than him.

Some will probably make something off his drop in HRs, how he didn't even eclipse 30 this year after hitting nearly 40 last year. He also had quite the power drop in Jax, putting up "only" a .224 ISO.

However, here's he's break down of park adjusted HR/FB (% of flyballs hit into the OF that go for HRs):

08 Greensboro: 27.22%
09 Jupiter: 26.76%
09 Jacksonville: 26.5%

I could only find one player in all of pro ball that beat Mike Stanton in Park Adjusted HR/FB%: Adrian Gonzalez, who blasted 40 HRs while playing half his games in PetCO (And who's park adjusted HR total falls at 55). That's just how legit Mike Stanton's power is as a 19 year old.

The only thing holding him back is his K's. So, what, his worst case scenario is putting up Russell Branyan's career line while playing above average defense in RF?

Meanwhile he tantalized us with a great Jupiter performance, where he only struck out 21.5% of the time. His May was especially amazing, finishing with a 0.79 BB/K, dropped his K% to 17%, and also launched 8 bombs (Park adjusted line for may: .309/.400/.734/1.134...with a .290 BABIP).

I think it's a bit much to completely hold onto one amazing month, and I think K's will still be a problem for him. Right now I have him at a:

.259/.346/.531/.877 line

That's while still striking out 1 in every 3 ABs, launching 40 HRs with 30 doubles, a .310 BABIP, and walking 11%. There might be room to grow in BB%, however outside of his Jupiter mastering of the strike zone, here's his uBB% for Greensboro and Jax: 9.5%, 8.9%. So I'm already putting him at improvement there based off his power.

Going then to defense, he has a very impressive career TZ/150 in RF of +15. He's even shown that he's right now an above average CFer, having a +5 rating in 200 chances. However, as he grows, his defense will go down and he will likely not be able to handle CF. Right now I have him at +7 runs defensively, but it will be interesting to see just how good he will be. I also have him at +1 on the basepaths due to his athleticism, and based off the fact he has not been stealing bases in the minors, so it'll likely be a wash for him.

All in all that would put him in the 4-4.5 WAR range over 150 games. If he becomes a Russell Branyan career-line like player, we're still talking about a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. His downside is basically that he becomes a slightly above average RFer. Meanwhile, if he starts getting in the mid 40 to 50 plus HR range, or he gets a better command of the strike zone like he did in Jupiter, he will be a top line power hitter in all of baseball.

2) Matt Dominguez

I'm going to focus more on why he's above Logan in Logan's section. For now, I'm just going to focus on why he's here.

I've constantly read that people are down on him for his Jupiter performance after what he did in Greensboro. This, to me, makes no sense.

Here is his park adjusted greensboro line: .296/.354/.472/.827
Park adjusted line for jupiter: .273/.343/.449/.791

36 point OPS difference, that's still pretty decent bit. However, there's also the fact that the FSL is a lot more of a pitchers park. He had a 132 OPS+ in Greensboro. Jupiter? 130.

His peripherals also weren't much difference. One of the main things was that he increased his walking (7.3% to 8.9%) while cutting his K's (17.9% to 15.9%). His park adjusted ISO barely showed a difference either, going from .177 down to .176. THere certainly was a difference in HRs, as even park adjusted them gave him a HR/150 of 26 in Greensboro, just 20 in jupiter. However, he also hit 2b's at a much higher rate. Really, the big difference between the minimal difference in OPS between the two years is that he had a .328 adjusted BABIP in Greensboro, but .298 in Jupiter. Meanwhile he went from walking at a below average rate to an above average rate, while cutting his K's, and keeping his power.

So, why are people disappointed in his Jupiter again?

Now his Jax performance was certainly quite bad. Even park adjusted it only rises it to a .196/.298/.340/.638 performance, good for a 79 OPS+. His power dropped (just 11 HR/150 and a .144 ISO), his BABIP was terrible at .236, and his K rate rose to 21% (the first time he's finished above the league average rate).

But that's looking skin deep. When he swung the bat, he was still making contact. Here's his % of times striking out swinging by league:

Greensboro: 13.7%
Jupiter: 13.2%
Jax: 12.3%

It has actually improved as he has gone higher.

The issue? He has struck out looking 8.8% of the time in Jax, compared to 3.4% between Greens and Jup. Combine the fact that he raised his BB% all the way up to 12.3%, and it shows he just wasn't swinging the bat much at all.

It's been said the jump to AA is the hardest jump a player will make, even harder then the jump to the majors. For now, Dominguez has a lot of adjusting to do to AA pitching. However, one thing to remember is that he was just 19 years old. Only 6 other hitters were of 19 years of age in the Southern league. Two of those only played in a dozen or less games (Brett Lawrie and Carlos Truinfel). The other 4? Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Jason Heyward, and Freedie Freeman. Yeah, I would say he's in good company.

Defensively, the book has been written a thousand times with the fact that scouts think he's already MLB ready with the glove. He saved 12 runs in just 215 chances for Jupiter this past season, for a TZ/150 of +20 runs. Adjusted for league, that puts him on par with a +14.5 ML defensive player. Even regressing 50% still puts him at +7 runs.

All together, assuming a bit drop in BB (8%), a bit up in K (19%), nothing special BABIP (.300), as well as putting him down for 22 HRs and 30 2b/3b (.168 ISO), that gives him a .262/.326/.431/.757 line. If we assume he's dead even on the base paths, and a +10 defender, that puts him at a 3 WAR player. If he can become a 25-30 HR player instead of a 20-25 HR player, that basically makes him an Adrian Beltre clone. It's hard atm to project him anymore than that though. However, he's downside is basically a Pedro Feliz-like player, meaning he's going to be starting somewhere.

3) Logan Morrison

So why so down on Morrison?

Mostly, there's the power shortage. Yeah, he had a HR/150 of 25 in Greensboro. But he also then became a line drive hitter, and has then put up a 17 HR/150 in Jupiter and 15 HR in Jax. 15-20 HR power just isn't very good at all. Yeah, there's the walks (Although he's not going to walk nearly as much as he did this year in Jax in the majors), yeah there's the good K rate. Yeah there's the above average ability for BABIP. He's going to be an above average hitter compared to the league.

But he's a first base man. The average 1b OPS this past season was .845. For this millennium, it's .836. First basemen are SUPPOSE to be above average hitters.

If we put him down for 20 HRs, 35 Doubles/Triples (.175 ISO, so asking him for an uppage based off age), 12% BB rate, 16% K rate, and a .320 BABIP, that gives him a .284/.375/.458/.833 line. Out of 19 qualified 1b's this past season, only two finished with a worse OPS.

Ontop of which, he hasn't really shown himself to be a good defender, at least going by Total Zone. For his career, he has a league adjusted TZ/150 of -10. Now the good news is it has been improving to the point of being positive this past season (-11 in Greensboro, -4 in Jupiter, +5 in Jacksonville), and the scouting report is that he's about average with poor range but good hands. But it's hard to really say anything but him being below average atm. And, being a big lumbering first baseman, it's unlikely he's a plus on the base paths.

So if we assume that .833 OPS, with -5 runs defensively, and -1 runs on the base paths, that puts him at just a 2 WAR. Not exactly impressive, is it?

Yes, you hope that that OPS starts sitting in the .850-.900 OPS range, you hope that he's around average defensively. This puts him to the 3-3.5 WAR range. But as of now, the power has not showed up. That's not to say it won't. I mean, a former Florida Marlins top first base prospect was only suppose to have 20 HR power, and he went on to hit 40 HRs in PetCO this past season. But until it happens, it hasn't happened.

This then gets us more to the point of Dominguez v.s. Morrison. The difference between Dominguez being a great defender at third and Morrison being a bad defender at first is somewhere between 25 to 30 runs. Going with the base line that 10 runs = 40 OPS points, that means that Morrison has to be out OPS Dominguez about 100 points to be as valuable as Dominguez is. So if Dominguez puts up a .750-.800 OPS, that means that Morrison has to put up his own .750-800 OPS. This kind of goes into the whole "1b's are traditionally overrated, 3b's are traditionally underrated" mindset.

Another major cause of concern: although it's a small sample size, Logan has not shown an ability to hit LHP. Throughout his career, his power is significantly worse (.183 ISO vs .136), he strikes out significantly more (21% v.s. 14%), and his walks are down aswell (9% v.s. 13%). His BB/K against RHP is more than double that against LHP (0.44 v.s. 0.97). It got even worse as he went to AA this past season and saw lefties that could actually throw breaking balls. He had nearly as many strike outs against LHP than he did RHP (21 v.s. 26) even though he only had 102 PA against LHP, 267 against RHP.

Now if he can still be a mid 700 OPS or so bat against LHP, than hey, he won't need a platoon. But he might end up being a platoon bat, which greatly lowers what his value is.

4) Jake Smolinski

Smolinski's line in his first season with the Marlins wasn't too impressive. He finished with a park adjusted line of .283/.379/.437/.816. The OBP certainly sticks out, but you'd love to see more power. Still, a .84 BB/K is very impressive.

Most have compared him to ROTY Chris Coghlan: Good approach, good BB/K, not much raw HR power but good gap power. Their Greensboro lines were certainly interesting in comparison.

JS/CC
BB%: 12%/14%
K%: 13%/12%
HR/150: 12/14
ISO: .154/.177
BABIP: .320/.354

The main thing that sticks out is the BABIP difference, as well as the gap power difference. The first though has a high luck variance, and for the second Chris Coghlan was two years older than Smolinski was this past season. Coghlan, 22 at the time, was a bit older than league average (21.7). Smolinski, 20, was below.

So the difference in power should lower in time. Still, overall he's a little weaker than CC, since ontop of the power he also strikes out a tick more and walks a tick less.

If we give him a 10% BB rate, 15% K rate, .130 ISO (11 HRs and 40 doubles), and a .310 BABIP, that gives him a .270/.348/.400/.748 line. Very solid for a 2b/3b, very less so if he's forced to move to the OF. For now, I'm assume he's staying in the IF though. Considering the scouting report on him isn't all too promising though, and his milb defensive numbers aren't too impressive, I currently have him at -3 runs. Overall, that would put him as a 2 WAR player. Real decent.

5) Gaby Sanchez

First thing I want to say is the final 3 really are interchangeable. They're all really bench bats/not very good starters.

Gaby Sanchez gets the nod here for his possible ability to play third base. If he can actually play the position fine (up to, say, -5 runs defensively), he'd actually likely make an average starter. This is in question though, as the Marlins have bounced him back and forth between 1b and 3b in the minors (62 games at 3b, 69 at 1b in '08. 41 at 3b, 45 at 1b this past season).

One of the more questionable things about Gaby has been his power. He burst on the scene by putting up a monster year in Greensboro, finish with a park adjusted line of .317/.447/.571/1.019 and a HR/150 of 33. His power almost completely disappeared the next year in Jupiter though, as his park adjusted ISO dropped nearly 100 points, and HR/150 was just 13. His park adjusted line wasn't all that bad though at .290/.378/.459/.837, good for a 134 OPS+.

Carolina saw a jump in power again. While Carolina helped him finish the double total he did, he still finished with a park adjusted ISO of .199, and improved his HR/150 to 21.

This past season in NO though yet again brings up questions. He finished with a park-adjusted HR total of 18 in only 370 PA, good for a HR/150 of 32. Even adjusting for the league, by comparing the PCL to the IL, puts him at a 16 HR total, or 28 HR/150.

So where do we go from here? Well, you choose the biggest sample size: his career. He now has a 22 HR/150 for his career. One thing to remember though is that he's constantly been old for the level, making the power he's put up a bit questionable. I'd probably say he's around a 15 HR power, or about ML average.

The rest is pretty cut forward: Awesome BB/K, not particularly good BABIP skills. Assuming a 11% BB rate, 15% K rate, 20 HRs/40 doubles (.155 ISO), and a .300 BABIP gives him a .266/.353/.421/.774 line.

CHONE almost completely agrees with me, with a .267/.354/.419/.773 line. All the peripherals are basically the same. Bill James? not so much. He calls for Gaby to have a massive .185 ISO, launching 15 HRs in just 406 PA (24 HR/150). However, he also had Gaby down for an upper .800 OPS before 09, and his system is known for being extremely optimistic on young players.

Definitely, he was originally thought to be a terrible defender at first base but has made a lot of progress, and the scouts view him as an above average defender although he might be closer to average at first. For now I'd assume something like +3 runs. On the base paths, he's actually pretty decent but again, like almost all players, it's more or less a wash.

All in all this would put him at a 1.76 WAR as a 1B. Not exactly impressive, but you could do a whole lot worse (like, say, Mike Jacobs). If he could manage to be a -5 defender at third, this would jump in his WAR up to 2.3. Total Zone thinks he could do that, but there's certainly a reason the Marlins haven't made him a full time 3b.

6) Bryan Petersen

What a mixed bundle of progressing and stepping backwards this past season.

First, the good. He lowered his strike rate by a ton. After striking out 19% of the time in 2008, he struck out just 13% of the time in '09.

The bad though? After being labeled a potential 20/20 guy after hitting a combined park adjusted HR total of 22 aswell as steal 23 bases, he'd hit just 7 HRs this past season, and finish with nearly as many CS as SB (13 for 25). He'd finish with just a .118 park adjusted ISO for the season. Still, there's some to like about his season line of .306/.377/.425/.801.

One thing to point out about his power outage: almost the entire outage happened at the beginning of the year, where he went over 70 days without a home run.

Since the game where he broke that drought, he put up a .317/.383/.484/.867 line in 206 PA, with a 19/16 BB/K and .323 BABIP. That's a .167 ISO, basically identical to what he did last season. He'd hit 6 HRs in that stretch, which would rate to 19 over 650 PA.

He'd then go to the AFL, where he again showed that same power: He'd hit 3 HRs, 6 doubles, and 3 triples in just 101 PA (Which would again rate to 19 HRs over 650 PA), for a .221 ISO.

So is the power back? Well, plain and simple, the bigger sample size > the smaller sample size. But if he comes back to being a 20 HR threat, he's now a starting OFer at the ML level and jumps up this list.

I'm personally putting him between. I do not think at all he's the slap hitting .100 ISO guy he was this past season, but I think presumption to pencil him back in for a .150 ISO. So instead, I'm giving him a .130 ISO (35 2b/3b, 12 HRs). Combine with his good walk rate (9%), improved K rate (16%), and decent rate of hitting for BABIP (.310), this gives him a .267/.339/.397/.736 line. Not exactly threatening for a starting corner OFer.

However, he's also the only left hander that will appear on this list that does not have a platoon question about him. His BB/K, power, and BABIP are basically identical between the two hands.

He's defense also isn't particularly good. Scouts have labeled him an average defender, and his total zone basically backs that up. And while his baserunning took a step back this past season, he should still be a bit above average. If we put him at +2 at both of those, that puts him at a 1.36 WAR. So, bench bat needless to say. 20 HRs though starts pushing him around the 2.5ish WAR range though, making him a decent starting corner OFer.

7) Scott Cousins

And to wrap it up, Scott Cousins. Offensively, things aren't looking to promising. He walks at a below average rate (7.9% this past season, 8.3% in his career), strikes out at an above average rate (20.1% this past season, 20.8% in his career).

You would hope power could make up for it, but it doesn't look like that will be the case. While he does sit on a career park adjusted ISO of .185, and a HR/150 of 19, he's also regularly been old for the leagues. Ontop of which, he saw a power shortage this past season in Jacksonville, with a HR/150 of 15. While he still finished with a very good .189 ISO, that's also because he hit 11 triples. Since triples aren't exactly a representation of power but rather speed, if we change those to doubles, his ISO drops down to .166, a lot less impressive for a 24 year old in AA.

For now, it looks like he'll only develop into average power. There's certainly potential for more though, especially after what he did last season between Jupiter and Carolina. He'd finish with a park-adjusted ISO of .206, and HR/150 of 25 in 300+ PA.

If he can reach that kind of power production again, things would look a lot better for him.

Unfortunately though, things are what they currently are. Putting him down for 7% BB rate, 23% K rate, .310 BABIP, and 15 HRs/.151 ISO puts him at a .247/.306/.399/.704 line.

The good news, of coarse, is defense. The past three years, he has a TZ/150 of +14 runs in the OF, and that's not adjusting for time in CF (380 chances in CF, 528 in RF, 29 in LF). That's also not including his arm, which is a cannon. He should be about a +10 defender in a corner OF spot, and about average in CF.

He's also a good base runner, stealing 27 bases this past season and should be good for 10-20 SB a year. So about +2 runs on the base paths.

However, that's not enough to make up for his bat. With a .704 OPS, this would just make him a 1.14 WAR player. Certainly some room to hope for improvement, but he's looking more like he'll take the brett carroll defensive replacement OFer spot once Carroll hits arbitration.

Some (somewhat) good news though is he does look like he could become a .730-.750 OPS bat against RHP. While he has shown that he can hit the ball with the same authority v.s. LHP that he does against RHP, the problem is actually hitting the ball. Combined with his defense, this makes him a borderline average starter against RHP. Combine him with a, say, Brett Carroll, who is a borderline average starter against LHP, and you're looking at average production combined. This would not be an ideal situation but he still has some use as a starter even if his power doesn't pick up.

And adding a guy who shouldn't touch a top 50 list but is still someone to keep an eye on

Brandon Tripp.

After hitting .288/.377/.531/.908 Bal's A team (Who's stadium is the equivalent of Jupiter), he'd hit just .236/.402/.698 for their A+ team in '08 (Who's stadium is the equivalent of Greensboro) and was released before the '09 season. The Marlins picked him up and stuck him in Jupiter. As a 24 year old in A+ ball, he should certainly be expected to hit well. And he did. He put up a park adjusted line of .288/.356/.470/.826 with a 24 HR/150.

Most impressively though is what he did to his K rate. After striking out 30.5% of the time in '08, he struck out just 23% of the time this past season. Still high, but much improved.

Another major thing is that Tripp, a left handed batter, has a major split in his career against RHP and it showed last year aswell. His park adjusted line against RHP? .307/.371/.518/.888, with a HR/150 of 31.

He certainly still has a long way to go, but the Marlins have always liked him and re-signed him quickly this offseason, so he'll likely get his due in the minors here. And he's someone to keep an eye on of possibly becoming a bench bat or possibly even a platoon starter down the road.

A look at the '10 bullpen

2009-12-04T01:51:28Z

So we essentially already know what our '10 bullpen is going to look like. The question is, how can we expect these guys to perform next season?

First thing: Keep in mind the average RP arm is basically a 4.10ish ERA guy.

Who all is competing? Right now we know:

Basically locks:
Matt Lindstrom (Either 1 option or out of options)
Leo Nunez (Out of options)
Brian Sanches (Out of options)
Dan Meyer (Out of options)
Renyel Pinto (Out of options)
Rick VandenHurk (Out of options)
Burke Badenhop (1 option left but very effective)

A bullpen consists of 7 relievers, normally two of which are lefties. That above is 7 relievers, two of which are lefties. However, Pinto may be traded (Hunter Jones, Taylor Tankersley, and Jay Voss (long shot) would likely compete for the last spot), as well as one or both of Lindstrom and Nunez. For those two, in the minors we have Tim Wood, Ryan Tucker, Chris Leroux, Christhian Martinez, Jay Buente, Hayden Penn, Brett Sinkbeil, Garrett Parcell, and Kris Harvey [Roughly in order of what I'd assume the likeliness being they make the team].

I'm going to focus on the 7 above "locks", plus Tim Wood, who is the only one out of that group who has somewhat of a ML sample size and the probable favorite to replace an arm next season.

Brian Sanches

There's a lot to support that Sanches won't repeat his 2.56 ERA from this past season, and not just that fact that he's been a MILB journeyman. He finished the season with a FIP of 4.14, and very much less impressively an xFIP of 4.66.

One of the main problems was his BB/9; he finished the season with a 4.15 BB/9 and his MLB career walk rate now sits at 4.88 (Average is normally around 3.5). This is quite the far cry from his minor league numbers, where he's put up a 2.47 BB/9 since he was converted into a reliever back in 2004.

However, one of the more staggering numbers is his intentional walks given up. He led the team in IBB, which includes starting pitchers, while only pitching 56 innings.

Considering IBB's aren't a proper explanation of a players control, if we take that out from his BB rate, his BB/9 drops to a nice 2.89, a lot more around what to expect based off his MILB track record.

For his K rate, he finished with a 8.15 K/9 and now has a career rate of 8.01. So this will probably transfer over again.

His HR rates, however, are another matter. He gave up a FB exactly half the time, a staggering rate. His HR/FB of 6.2% is quite a drop in what to expect, and is why his xFIP is so high. xFIP called for him to give up 3 more HRs, or 1.28 HR/9.

So without a doubt, Sanches is not without his issues. He's the typical FB pitcher that is able to get by because of a good K/BB, but will never be great because of the HRs given up (You'll notice this will be a trend for our bullpen).

There is one thing though, as his MILB FB% since 2005 with just 40.3%, and his MLB career rate now sits at 45.9%. If we assume he's more around the mid 40's, this would have dropped his expected HR/9 from last season down to 1.12, a lot more respectable number (Average is normally around 1).

So if say next season he can put up a 8 k/9, a 3 BB/9, and a 1.15 HR/9, this would put him at a 4.08 FIP, or exactly league average. So, especially considering the fact he's cost controlled for two more seasons as well as the fact he can eat up multiple innings, he'll be a nice valuable reliever. There's certainly some cause for concern, especially with his HR and FB rates, but he was a nice pick up by the FO.

Dan Meyer

Basically the LHP version of Sanches.

His 3.09 final ERA was very nice, and his FIP of 3.87 showed that he pitched well. He also wasn't particularly beneficial of the HR, as his xFIP was just 4.14. However, his FB rate was still a massive 48.1%, and his HR/9 rate will likely continue to be in the 1.1-1.2 range.

There's also a pretty big concern about his BB rates. While he finished the season with an above average rate of 3.24, it was 4.30 in the second half. And considering that he is inside the strike zone at a league average rate, and gets swings outside the strike zone at a below average rate, well, he's probably closer to the 4.30 number than the 3.24 number.

We can simply call him league average though, which is about 3.50, but there is certainly a "Proceed with caution" sign attached to it. And his K-rate of 8.64 was very impressive, and only got better as the season progressed.

So even with a bump in BB and HR rates, his K rates should still perform at a good level, which again put him at around an average reliever. If we put him down for 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 1.15 HR/9, this puts him at a 4.14 FIP.

Leo Nunez

Want to talk HR problems? The biggest issue in Nunez's career came in full force last season. His 5.17 FIP was just horrible, though his 4.32 xFIP is a lot more caring. His FB rate was roughly his career rate (43%) but his HR/FB rocketed all the way to 15.1%. If he's able to fall back down towards his career rate of 10.9%, there's a lot more to like.

There's also a lot more to like about a dropping HR rate: more strike outs. While his career HR/9 sits at 1.34, his career K rate sits at 6.4. A guy always labeled to have good "stuff", it finally came to fuition this past season as he threw his change up more and his K rate rose to 7.86. It's simple: You strike out more players, less balls in play, less chance of a ball leaving the park.

If he's able to be an 8 K/9 guy, his career HR/9 rate would drop to a 1.26 rate. Still bad, but still an improvement.

However, with that increase change up usage came a drop in control, at his BB/9 rose to 3.54 while before this season it sat at 2.71. Part of that had to do with more than doubling his career IBB rates, but his uIBB% still rose as well, from 6.4% the previous 4 seasons to 7.59% this past season. So his BB rates should certainly lower from this past season, but will still likely be higher than his career rate. He'll probably be around a 3 BB/9.

So if we say 8 k/9, 3 BB/9, and a 1.26 HR/9, it still puts him at just a 4.24 FIP. Entering his first year of arbitration, the Marlins are likely better off trading him this off season while he's still considered a "young live arm", as well as having racked up 26 saves.

Matt Lindstrom

One of the main things to understand about Lindstrom's numbers this past season: He was injured in the WBC and never really fully healed, which really showed in his control. His BB/9 jumped to a whopping 4.56, while his career rate currently sits at 3.72, which is likely a lot closer to Lindstorm's true talent level.

You also know more or less what you're getting in his K rate: last season he finished with a 7.42 rate, while his career rate sits at 7.55.

One of the things that he has really benefited from though his HRs. He gave up a total of 3 in 07-08 combined. That number nearly tripled this past season (5), but that's also probably more around what to expect, with a 9.3 HR/FB rate this past season. However, he still gets GB's a decent rate, and a HR/9 of around 0.85 is probably about what to expect.

So if we say he's a 7.5 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9, that puts him at a 4.01 FIP.

One cause of concern though: Lindstrom's lowest BABIP in a season is .321, and his carer rate now sits at .332. He has only pitched 171.7 IP, but he also had a career LD% against of 19.7. If this is a trend that continues, that's means he's going to constantly perform above what his FIP would tell us.

Tim Wood

What an average name for what an average talent.

He hasn't pitched anywhere close enough in the majors to really get a grasp on him, but at the same time he's pitched basically what you'd have expected from the minors. What's interesting, thanks to Stat Corner, is put side by side his AAA numbers to his MLB numbers.

K swinging%: 18.2%/16.5%
K looking%: 2.84%/0% (Not a single K looking at the major league level)
Unintentional BB%: 8.52%/9.28%

So far, he's basically been able to translate from the MILB to the MLB. Will that stay? Can't say until he has more experience.

But for now, if we say he's able to be a average/slightly below average talent at striking hitters out, a average/slightly below average talent at walking hitters, and an above average talent at prevent HRs and XBH, well, we have an average to slightly above average RP.

Penciling him in for a 6.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9 puts him at a 4.11 FIP, and there's certainly room to grow in the K/BB. I especially think he can hit the generally-mandatory 2 K/BB ratio.

Renyel Pinto

Pinto is a real interesting case. His career FIP is a horrid 4.77 thanks to his abysmal BB/9 of 6. However, his career ERA in 214 innings is 3.70. This is thanks to a great strand rate (78.5%, average is normally around 70%), which itself is helped by a good BABIP (.270). And it's not without warrant, his career LD% against is just 16.7%.

He does strike out batters at an above average rate (Career 8.65), and gives up HR's at a league average rate (0.97), but his BB rate is just not acceptable. Since 2006, no pitcher who has pitched at least 150 combined innings has a higher BB/9. Not even Carlos Marmol, who is second at 5.85. Marmol though is also a similar case,where he's gotten by thanks to a high K rate, strand rate, and low BABIP and LD rates. Will these guys be able to sustain their good ERA numbers? It'll be interesting to see.

For now, there's only two things we know: The numbers say he's going to come crashing down, but at the same time he's still been able to get by.

Burke Badenhop

Badenhop gives us one major question: how does a sinkerball pitcher with sub-par stuff go from having a MILB K rate of 6.1 to having a K rate as a reliever of 7.3?

Well, there's one answer: Players struck out looking a massive 7.9% of the time against him. So his stuff was still sub-par, hitters just weren't swinging (Swingers swung at balls 41% of the time against him this past season. League average is 45%, or about 50 more swings).

If we drop his K looking% down to a more respectable 5%, his K/9 drops to a more expected 6.2.

That's not to bash on the Hopper though. His unintentional BB/9 was a terrific 2.07 as a reliever, and his 53% GB rate was 13th in the NL. He's still not going to walk people, he's still not going to give up many HRs.

If we put him down for a 6.25 K/9, 2.25 BB/9,and 0.75 HR/9, we're still talking about a 3.64 FIP for him. His conversion as a mop-up reliever to higher leverage situations should continue into next season, as he could end up being our best reliever next season after being our second best this past season (Behind Kiko Calero).

Rick Vanden Hurk

Nothing has been said yet of converting him to a BP arm yet, but considering he's 1) out of options, 2) does not go deep into games, and 3) we have a full rotation already, he's likely starting point next year is the bullpen.

What can we expect? It's hard to say when all he's done so far is start.

What we do know: He gives up a massive amount of FBs and a massive amount of HRs. His MLB FB% sits at 47.9%, HR/FB at 12.4%, and HR/9 at 1.57. You certainly hope these drop as a reliever, but we're still talking of hoping he becomes a 1.2-1.3 HR/9 guy.

What we do know: His new slider that he learned in the WBC from Bert Blyleven has really improved his control, although is did also hurt his K rate. He finished with just a 7.52 K/9 (9.6 K/9 previously), but just a 3.22 BB/9 (5.5 previously).

Again it's hard to say what we can really expect with him moving to the bullpen, but if we call him at 7.75 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, that basically makes him Leo Nunez. You really hope that the K rates can sky-rocket to their previous level while keeping his great walk rates, and you really hope something gets done about those HRs, but for now its hard to project anything more than an average reliever.

However, he certainly has major break out potential, and could finish the season closing out games.

to sum it up
sh*t ton of average arms, with a major need of Tucker/Ceda/possibly Leroux to really put it together and come up and an ace reliever.