FishStripes

Season so far

brickell — Mon, 12 May 2008 04:42:26 -0000

With the 7th win in a row and the best record in baseball, they're finally getting noticed. A commentator on ESPN admitted that it was a good team, but claims they have been "lucky in close games" and "have played an easy schedule". With close to a quarter of the season on the books let's take a look at if that's true. I know some of you are much better at the stats, so feel free to contribute.

Luck:

May be some merrit to this.

They are 7-3 in 1-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. Let's call it 10-3 in close games. That's the best record in the league. Compare to 1-13 for Atlanta, 10-11 for Philadelphia and 7-4 for New York. A few pitches here and there and it could still be a logjam at the top of the division. But a stellar bullpen has to account for some of this luck. They have the 3rd best bullpen ERA in the majors and have given up the 2nd fewest HRs. The Marlins power has also enabled them to get runs in bunches but there may be some luck here ("clutch"?) or could it be the bench?

Late innings of close games v regular season

AVG - .299 v .265

SLG - .504 v .456

HR/AB - .06 v .04

Schedule:

According to ESPN - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

The Marlins have the 2nd highest RPI and are 14th in strength of schedule. Hardly a cakewalk. Lucky or not, the team record is legit in my opinion.

2 other things stand out - Atlanta, probably the unluckiest team has had the easiest schedule so far. The expected W-L formula has the Marlins tied with Philadelphia and New York, 3.5 games behind Atlanta. Good thing the play the games on the field and not on paper.

It reminds me of another lucky team, the 2003 Marlins. They didn't always have it together, but they found ways to win close games, to win series, to grind it out. Let's hope this year's team keeps it up and follows them all the way to the World Series.

Hanley Ramirez and Florida Marlins close to 6 year extension

Ramp — Sat, 10 May 2008 03:56:11 -0000

[Edit by craig] Ramp originally posted this as a Fan Post and I hope he doesn't mind that I am going to write all around it. The writing in the blue-grey box was his original post, the typing above and below the box is me. I wouldn't want to saddle Ramp with my opinions.

Anyway, here is the latest speculation on Hanley Ramirez:

Lambasted for their major league-low $21 million payroll and perpetual trading of star players, the Marlins are finally keeping one in the fold.

According to a Ramirez acquaintance, shortstop Hanley Ramirez and the Marlins are on the verge of finalizing a six-year, $70 million contract extension, the largest commitment in franchise history. The deal is pending a physical and an official announcement might not come until early next week.

The Marlins are believed to have initiated talks during spring training. Ramirez, who is making $439,000 this season, would have been eligible for arbitration after this season. Ramirez is taking a huge home discount as this deal buys out his first three years of free agent eligibility.

Marlins President David Samson would not comment. Andy Mota, Ramirez's agent, could not be reached.

Sun Sentinel

Joe Frisaro is also reporting basically the same thing but instead of "a Ramirez acquaintance" he refers to the source as "a high-ranking Major League Baseball source". But everything else matches.

If true, this a great move by the Marlins. Not only do they get Hanley locked up for six years but they do so at a very reasonable (cheap) price which won't break the bank. In other words, this isn't the Texas Rangers signing A-Rod and then not having enough money to put a decent team around him.

If everything happens as reported, the Marlins can lock down Hanley and still have enough money to pay the arbitration prices of the players who will be arbitration eligible without substantially increasing the payroll. Oh sure, the payroll would more than double, if they did all of this, but the Marlins would still be last in payroll or close to it.

Hopefully this isn't just some tale being told by the Old Salts at the bait shop and it actually has merit. We will see.

(Note to Ramp: if you would prefer for me to leave your Fan Posts as they are posted, let me know and I won't do this in the future.)

Ken Rosenthal thinks we'll trade...

Matt Wilson — Wed, 07 May 2008 19:37:19 -0000

Rosenthal pointed out in this column that 14 Marlins will be eligible for arbitration next year, a fact he believes will result in some trades for our young Fish (basically, our best players). He thinks they could go as early as this summer.

I'm not sure if I agree, as I don't see many of these guys (outside of Hanley) getting huge salary bumps. I'd expect guys like Uggla and Hammer to get bumped into the $2MM range, with Hanley possibly from $4-5MM. Overall, this will result in a $10-15MM bump in payroll overall, which I think the franchise can absorb.

One guy I can see as trade bait, however, is Uggla, considering Chris Coghlan is waiting in the wings. I see Uggs as comparable to an Adam Dunn type, so some teams should be interested (maybe Cinci, with Dunn going FA after this year). In a smaller ballpark, he could potentially be a 40 homer guy.

I swear to god, if this team had any brains they would buy out Hanley's arb years with a long-term deal. I guarantee we will get the better end of the bargain. Hanley will make A-Rod money in the free agent market without a doubt. I'd say 95% of GMs would pick him as the one player they'd want for the future, and it would be a travesty to let him go. Obviously, he won't be traded this year, but the whole penny-pinching-until-2011 thing has me worried.

Here endeth my input/rants.

Poll

If we had to trade one arb-eligible Marlin, who could you live without?

Volstad's immediate future?

Orestes Destrade — Tue, 06 May 2008 12:50:37 -0000

It was rumored that if A. Miller had another poor start on May 4th that Chris Volstad may very well be called up. He would still seem like the first choice if they give up on B. Badenhop or move R. Nolasco back to the bullpen.

S. Mitre, J. Johnson, and A. Sanchez all won't be back for at least 2 more months.

marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marlins marllins marlins

Poll

How many starts will Chris Volstad make in the majors this season?

The 2008 Marlins biggest(?) problem

elricsi — Fri, 02 May 2008 17:30:37 -0000

In 2007 the biggest problem with the Fish was their awful D as hits were dropping in everywhere as measured by DER and team zone rating.

It's too early in the season to focus too much on any one player, as they don't have enough AB's to have a good sample. But the team stats have enough events that we can start to see what is going on with the whole team.

In 2008 the D is much better, as they are no longer worst in the league. Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and San Francisco are all arguably worse. Maybe Hanley's health and having a real 3rd baseman are helping.

But the one thing that jumped out at me is that they are 29th in all of baseball in team OPS versus LHP. As you guys see more games than me, what is going on there? I thought the Marlins were loaded with RH batters.

Fish Stripes Now in Blog Spotlight

clearingskies — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:56:04 -0000

I wanted Marlins fans and especially fans of Fish Stripes to see your site featured on the '08 BaseballNooz. If you like to track Florida players, you'll find unique Mashup pages with individual player stats, photos, videos and more.

You can also see every blogger in the baseball universe in community BlogJam.

However the tough NL East turns out, we’ll be tuning into Fish Stripes every day of the season. Best of luck to you all the way to October.

Regards,
Walter
lead editor
http://www.baseballnooz.com

P.S. Keep up the great blogging work, Craig.

Radio reception

ROADSRUNNER88 — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:33:43 -0000

Has anyone else encountered a problem with the radio reception from station 790? It seems as the broadcast comes in loud and clear for the first few innings and then it is like some one "pulled the plug" as the volume goes way down and interference way up!

This has not been a problem in past years. I first noticed it during spring training this year and now I'm wondering if it has something to do with the new radio affiliate...

Sedano, Loria and Forbes

FishFan-GatorMan — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 22:16:33 -0000

This morning I had an on-air debate with Jorge Sedano of 790 The Ticket about the Marlins finances. He referenced an apparently recent Forbes article about the team's situation and claimed that Forbes reported the Marlins made $40 million during the 2007 season before selling a single ticket. I can't question the article because I haven't seen it (nor have I been able to find it). I do know however that Forbes does an annual analysis of the finances of Major League Baseball franchises.

THE HARD NUMBERS

Here's a compilation of what those analyses have shown over the last few seasons (through 2006 because the report for 2007 isn't out yet):

According to Forbes EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization for the 2006 season was $43.3 Million. A hefty sum, no doubt.

For the 2005 season the club's EBITDA was $-11.9 Million.

For the 2004 season the team's EBITDA was $3 Million.

For the 2003 season the EBITDA for the Marlins was $-11.6 Million

Over the 4-year period analyzed the Marlins total EBITDA was $22.8 Million. That averages to $5.7 million per year. To put that into perspective, Dontrelle Willis earned $6.45 Million last year for the Marlins.

Of course, this doesn't take into account last season's finances but for the sake of argument let's say the club earned the same during the 2007 as in 2006 ($43.3 Million, which would be in line with what Sedano quoted), the 5-year average would be $13.22 Million per year. In contrast, Miguel Cabrera just signed a 7-year deal with the Tigers that averages more than $20 Million a year.

MOTIVATIONS

The question is whether the Marlins ownership is getting rich at the expense of the fans and whether or not the ownership cares as much about winning as they do about making money.

I believe the ownership does want to win. I think what they have discovered is that in the current financial environment in baseball, that they simply don't have the resources to maintain a continuous quality product on field, that is to say one that competes on a year-in/year-out basis. I think they believe that they can win in cycles. In the down cycles, the team makes money and fields what the fans would consider an inferior product while accumulating building blocks for the next "run".

The Marlins have found an area of opportunity in baseball's labor rules that allows clubs to maintain tight payrolls by filling their rosters with young players that have not yet achieved free agency. Even so a quality arbitration eligible player will command a salary in the multi-million dollar range.

Throw into the equation the financial deal that the Marlins are finalizing with the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County which includes a commitment to provide $152 Million dollars toward the project (some of which has to be provided up-front and some of which will be provided as rent payments) as well as any cost overruns that are incurred and you can understand why Loria is obsessed with keeping payroll down for the time being and putting money in the bank. He's going to need it later. It's no secret that Jeffrey Loria does not have the deep pockets that people usually associate with sports franchise owners. He had to borrow $38 million from MLB to buy the Marlins in the first place.

FANTASY AND REALITY

Would I prefer an owner that had big dollars and that didn't need to "work the system" like Loria does? Would I prefer an owner that didn't need to go through periods of fielding an inferior product in order to save money to create a window during which the Marlins can "make a run" at winning? Would I prefer an owner that didn't need to have a (mainly) publicly-financed stadium to compete effectively and one that could simply dip into his vast personal wealth to keep every good player the organization develops?

The answer to all of those questions is "OF COURSE I WOULD!" But I don't live in a fantasy land. Jeffrey Loria is the owner of the team for better or for worse. We need to accept the financial limitations that he has personally and the challenges that operating a franchise today pose. We should look deeper at the motivations for the decisions that are made rather than jumping to the conclusion that they are all based on greed. That's fine for talk radio but it's not substantive nor realistic. Remember that with ALL OF THE MONEY the Marlins have made over the last 5 years, they still could not have signed Miguel Cabrera to the deal he signed with Detroit.

OBJECTIVE/ANALYTICAL VS. HYSTERICAL/REACTIONARY

As baseball fans, let's stop ripping the owner and instead support him in his quest to get the stadium deal finalized. When the Marlins are playing in their brand new stadium, we can judge more clearly whether Loria wants to win. If Forbes shows that the Marlins are making money over an extended period of time, in the new stadium, while consistently fielding a low-payroll inferior team THEN I will judge him to be a greedy cheapskate, but not before.

You can catch my thoughts at Fish or Cut Bait.

Welcome to the new FishStripes and SB Nation

clockwerks — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 05:14:15 -0000

Hey FishStripes,

Today is the big day. We've switched your community over to the new SB Nation sports blog platform. My name is Trei, and I'm here to help you get adjusted to the new home we've built for you. If you have questions or trouble with the new system, post a comment in this thread and myself or one of the team (lovitt, sixfoot6 or odacrem) will try to point you in the right direction.

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Sign up for your SB Nation network account and claim your old blog accounts
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Click the "Rec" button on posts and comments to help other people find the good stuff.

What Has Changed

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Pictures from Sunday's game

Matt Wilson — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 15:19:16 -0000

As promised, here are some pics from my rainy outing to the Nationals game on Sunday, March 23.

Opening ceremonies, color guard, etc.

Hammer, Gonzo, De Aza, and Fredo warming up

Danny and Hanley getting loose

The Incredible Hurk hurls the first pitch

Hanley the Manley stepping in

It's go time

The Hurk

Pitching out of trouble

Hanley stands in to start the fireworks

He reaches with a single

Uggs smacks a double...

...and Hanley comes in to score

Hammer up with Uggla and McPherson on...

...and here they come

There's your final, 4-2, as the bats were silent after this point

Rotation

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 04:43:44 -0000

So, how's the opening week going to break down, pitching-wise?

My thoughts:
Opening Day, vs Mets - Hendrickson
April 1 (day 2) - Nolasco
April 2 - Vandenhurk
April 4, vs Pirates - Olsen

Come April 13, I think the fifth starter will be Badenhop.

Thoughts?

One-line diaries are prohibited on FishStripes. Give your diary a bit more thought, then give it another shot. If you have nothing to add to your proposed diary, then it probably belongs as a comment under another appropriate thread.

The minimum is 300 characters.

NL East Division Preview

Matt Wilson — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 14:24:54 -0000

Hey all, over at my site NBB we're doing division previews before the season and the NL East is the first on the docket.

My partner (Rays fan) and I (Fish fan) traded off our home divisions in order to remove our "bias," which is our whole gimmick and whatnot. Therefore, I can't take credit for the glowing outlook the Marlins received.

Nevertheless, we hope to offer a pretty good look at each team in the divisions, so take a peek and enjoy.

http://www.nobiasbaseball.com/2008/03/nbb-division-preview-nl-east.html

My New Marlins Ballpark Concept: the Fishtank

Sun, 02 Mar 2008 00:47:16 -0000

This is my first post, I've been toying with this general idea
since college (grad 99) but wanted to refine it as I felt it was overlappingwith some ideas presented by the marlins.

After about a month of work/+ design, I'm finally done with my concept for a Marlins Ballpark. The goal was a to work within the constrains of the current design brief : a smaller, retractable roof stadium. Pulling inspiration from their current home, Miami Architecture, an Aquarium (that would glow similiar to the Beijing Olympic Swim Arena) . I wanted to shoehorn a somewhat simple baseball field layout into a more complex, non traditional exterior and seating bowl.

If my model wasn't so large (slowing down my computer) I would have added graphics to some of the exterior, curved lines (instead of the sharp angles) and I would of loved to have the "aquarium" glow similiarto the beijing arena, but again, I'm limited by the program and knowledge of it.

I'd love to hear what some Marlins fans have to say about the ballpark

more pics here

Stadium Deal

Sat, 23 Feb 2008 21:14:36 -0000

Now that we have a stadium deal in place it is time for management to start spending, not add old guys like in the past but keep Hanley and all the other young talent they have accumulated. The stadium deal is what management has been complaining about for a long time now so they need to put up some cash to held keep the fans coming to the park. I know it is hard to spend money you don't have put sometimes you need to take a loss in the present to secure the future of your team.

Unbridled Pessimism

dan 2.0 — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 03:07:05 -0000

I went on the record about a month ago in predicting the "most likely outcome" for the 08 Marlins was another battle for the NL's worst record. I've said time and again that despite my Mayboner, Killa Cam (I know we're working on the nickname) is not ready for the bigs right now. And you may recall my work in booing every post about Samson.

But even I was struck by the pessimism -- and in some respects, outright venom -- in Jumpin Joe Sheehan's "Spring Training Preview" of the Marlins over at BP. I reprint it here for your perusal:

Florida Marlins
Where: Jupiter, Florida (Grapefruit League)
2007 record: 71-91 (5th, NL East)
New guys: Jose Castillo, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mark Hendrickson, Cameron Maybin, Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Jorge Cantu (NRI)
Gone guys: Armando Benitez, Aaron Boone, Joe Borchard, Miguel Cabrera, Byung-Hyun Kim, Todd Linden, Wes Obermueller, Miguel Olivo, Dontrelle Willis
Wow, he's still here? No one, really. Just seven Marlins remain from the 2005 team, and those seven combined for 249 AB and 38 1/3 innings that year.
Winter grade: C-
It's not that they didn't get good prospects in the Cabrera/Willis trade, or that they might not be better in a few years for it. It's just hard to see how dealing those two guys was a better idea than putting a team around them and trying to win. Improving the defense by aligning Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla differently around the field would have been worth a couple of wins. Throw in bouncebacks by pitchers, an emerging Jeremy Hermida, and some low-end free agent pickups, and this team could have contended in the NL. The deal also sends the message that you shouldn't get attached to Hermida or Ramirez. Just put the franchise down already.
NRI to watch: The Fish have 29 NRIs in camp, because you can never have too many options to put a minimum-salary player on the roster in place of one making more than that. Early steroid suspendee Jorge Piedra can hit, and he might make a serviceable stopgap in center field, allowing Maybin to play most of the season in the minors. They be taking another defensive hit if he plays there regularly, so Alejandro de Aza or Alfredo Amezaga will have value as his caddy.
Job battle to track: Third base is a mess in the absence of Cabrera, with McPherson, Castillo, and Cantu all vying for the job. If McPherson is able to swing a bat, he's mildly interesting. None of these guys are good; they're barely third basemen, as the three have combined for 95 appearances at third base in the last two years.
One move to make: Send Maybin to Double-A for two months. If he proves he can play there--he's had 20 at-bats at the level--send him to Triple-A, where he's never played, for the rest of that season. The Tigers screwed up last season; the Marlins can't let that drive their handling of a player who is completely unready for the major leagues.
If the ownership doesn't care, and the fans don't care, and the municipalities don't care, why should we? You can point to the 2003 title, I guess, but like the 1997 one, it seems anomalous. For a decade now, the Florida Marlins have existed solely in the hopes of extorting taxpayer dollars for a mallpark. Everything on the baseball side is secondary. They are one of the rare "hopeless and faithless" franchises around.

In related news that I'm pretty sure is alright for me to promote, if you're looking for another preview of the 08 Marlins (and every other team; and tons of probably great content from tons of definitely great baseball minds/writers) that was penned at least in part by a certain FishStripes editor, may I suggest the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008. I have a feeling that even if Craig isn't much more positive about the prospects for the season, you won't feel as worthless for being a Marlins fan as Sheehan's preview tries.

fan vote for third baseman for marlins 2008

Fri, 01 Feb 2008 05:07:05 -0000

the marlins have signed three players that all have a chance to be the third basemen for the marlins this upcoming season i was just wondering who you want it to be between DALLAS MCPHERSON who in 2006 was a pretty decent hitter and was once a top prospect for the angels before missing all of 2007 with an injury ,JORGE CANTU who once hit 28 HRs and was one of the best hitters for the devil rays back in 2005 and 2006 but has been a disappointment the last 1 1/2 years, and last but not least JOSE CASTILLO who was a decent hitter for the pirates but last year also had his struggles but is one of the best defensive players at his position. so it is up to you the fans to vote for your choice for third base it is going to be a close vote until the finish i think

Poll

your third basemen for 2008

jeff allison

Sat, 19 Jan 2008 01:16:20 -0000

i saw on teal and black (a marlins site) that jeff allison was ranked as the # 37 prospect in the marlins top 50. it got me thinking that this kid had alot of promise just like josh hamilton and they both had drug problems and hamilton is now a pretty good major leaguer and allison is expected to be back in the minors this season or at least start the year in extended spring training and i was wondering if anyone thinks that this once promising kid can become a feel good story and start over in his life like hamilton did.

marlins in 2008

Sun, 13 Jan 2008 05:14:50 -0000

this is going to be the marlins lineup for 2008
C-mike rabelo
1B-mike jacobs
2B-jose castillo/jorge cantu
ss-hanley rameriz
3B-dan uggla
LF-josh willingham
CF-cameron maybin
RF-jeremy hermida

SP-anibal sanchez, andrew miller, ricky nolasco, sergio mitre, and scott olsen

CL- kevin gregg

this is a very talented team and will get younger and even more talented when those young pitcher come up from the minors and take at least 2 of the spots in the rotation( gabby Hernandez and chris Volstad)

Don Czyz - Florida pitching prospect

James Quinn — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:03:21 -0000

I am a blogger covering the University of Kansas baseball team at the SB site Rock Chalk Talk. I posted a story today about Florida minor league pitcher Don Czyz which might be of interest to those of you who follow the future Fish.

Here is a link to the full story. My chart did not transfer over to this site but can be seen at the linked story. Below is written part of my take on Czyz in 2007:

Don Czyz

For background on Don Czyz' accomplishments as a Jayhawk, take a look at his interview with Rock Chalk Talk from last year. Don is a lock for the KU Baseball Hall of Fame when he reaches eligibility.

After some pre-draft conversations with the Cardinals Don was surprised to be selected by the Marlins first. Following his phenomenal senior year at KU Czyz' first season and a half in professional ball has been a story of moderate success. He got of to a slow start at Jamestown but did well enough to earn a promotion to Greensboro in 2007. While his ERA at Greensboro was basically the same as it had been in Jamestown (4.61 vs. 4.91) his peripheral numbers were much more encouraging. His K/BB ratio improved dramatically from 1.82 to 4.80. Anything over 2.00 is considered very good. Czyz ground ball ratio (1.60) is also a positive peripheral static, indicating that he is keeping his slider low. While Czyz did not dominate in 2007 he clearly had a good year and should break be in A+ Jupiter next year, if not all the way up to AA Carolina. Czyz made steady progress in 2007 and, with the Marlins well into another extreme youth movement, might see more opportunity in 2008.

My one game of 2007

Matt Wilson — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 16:42:33 -0000

As a UF undergrad and MBA student, I've lived in Gainesville for the past several years and haven't made it down for many Marlin games. I came from Palm Beach Gardens, where my mom still lives, so whenever I head back home I try to catch a Fish game, which usually amounts to 2-3 games a season.

This year, I only made it to one game, but it was a good one.

It was Saturday, July 21, against the Cincinnati Reds. I was looking forward to seeing Junior Griffey, whom I'd never seen live before. BK took the hill for the Fish, with rookie Bobby Livingston hurling for the Reds.

I had great seats in the infield box, right behind home plate. And about ten rows down, Ken Griffey senior was in attendance! It was a cool moment to see him there.

All around, this was a great game and I was thrilled to be there. After what seemed like a pitchers duel for the first six innings, Woody and Matty hit back-to-back homers in the seventh. Then in the eighth, the flood gates opened and the Fish scored eight runs, capped off by a towering 3-run blast by Hanley.

The final was 11-1, with BK throwing seven strong innings for the win. For my one game of the season, I couldn't have asked for more!

Oh and the giveaways were great. Who wouldn't be happy with an official Marlins gas cannister and clacking noise-maker?

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My one game of 2007