Ozzie Guillen, MGL, and the Marlins' Traditional Ways
Have any of you watched MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential? If there is a baseball show on that network to watch, it is that one. It is an analytics based show using advanced stats to tell stories and analyze the game, just the sort of thing we here at Fish Stripes really enjoy. Furthermore, it is hosted by former ESPN broadcaster Brian Kenny, who is well known for being saber-friendly and more than interested in the numbers. They could not have picked a better host and a better topic for today's baseball world. Sabermetrics is more important than ever in the evaluation of players at the front office level, and it is really coming to the forefront.
One place sabermetrics has not necessarily penetrated is the managerial world. We have all screamed at our team's managers in past for making dumbfounding moves, and it is not surprising. So many managers are stuck in the old school ways of managing that it seems they are not open to new ideas that the data has shown to be significant. It was evident in the World Series when Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington intentionally walked like a million guys, and it again was evident a few nights ago with the Miami Marlins' own Ozzie Guillen.
A few nights ago, Clubhouse Confidential brought in Mitchell Lichtman, a.k.a the (in)famous MGL, to the broadcast. He was there to discuss some of the findings that were highlighted in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, one of the best baseball books one can find. These findings include the absence of a "clutch hitting" skills, the most optimal batting order synthesis, and the way that National League teams can avoid giving away runs.
Overall, it was an excellent segment from both MGL and Kenny, as they both played their roles well. Because of the environment and the nature of the questions, it seemed MGL was more calm than he usually would be if he were dealing with a typical baseball blowhard on television or radio. This is totally worth a watch.
Of course, what interested me a little more is the response that Ozzie Guillen gave on Twitter.
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Playing Pick'em With Cespedes
A couple of weeks ago, Yoennis Cespedes officially became a free agent able to negotiate a contract with major league teams. Last week, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus held the most interesting of articles regarding the Cuban free agent and current heated interest of the Miami Marlins. The question was simple: who would you rather?
I polled big-league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn’t expressly ask about tools or projection; I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five 20-something, ultra-toolsy outfielders who have yet to fully break through. I offered a simple proposal: You can either have Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career for free—so cost should not enter into the decision.
It's a pick'em game for the rest of the players' respective careers. Who you got between Cespedes and these five outfielders? I figured I'd play as well and post my thoughts as well.
Scouting Report: Rasmus was once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball. He seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things were no better north of the border; Rasmus limped to a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.
Once upon a time, in 2010, Rasmus was an All-Star and had a bright future ahead of him. Yet somehow, he ended up on the bench more often than not, and in 2011 he had a horrific third season. When looking at Rasmus, you are fairly certain you will get power (career .181 ISO), but not certain about his strikeout problems (career 22.7 percent rate). He has a lot of tools, but there are definite concerns about whether he can handle center field long-term.
In fact, a lot of that sounds a lot like Cespedes himself! Like Rasmus, Cespedes appears to have undeniable power, but may lack the plate discipline to succeed long-term. He also has some questions about his defense in center field. The two players are very similar, but the nod should go to a player who has physical potential much greater than the other. I'd give a slight not to Cespedes here.
Pick: Cespedes
Fish Stripes All-Time Florida Marlins Team: Corner Outfield Run-off
It's been a week since we last visited the Fish Stripes All-Time Florida Marlins Team. Last week, we discussed the issue of corner outfielders, and what an issue it was. There was a logjam of four very legitimate contenders for the crown, but only two can make the starting lineup. Part of the voting will involve the Fish Stripes readership, and this week their voices have been heard. Their first vote for top Florida Marlins outfielder has been cast.
It seems the first choice for top outfielder by the fans is Gary Sheffield! Sheffield was one of the four names, and his top-notch 1996 season and contributions to the 1997 championship team were enough to put him over in the fan's eyes. Sheffield has accumulated more PA with the Marlins than any other team, and if he ever gets a shot at entering the Hall of Fame, you have to suspect that he will at least consider putting on the Marlins hat and becoming the team's first representative.
But now the question becomes: who else will join the readers ballot?
Fish Bites: Bonifacio Wins
The Miami Marlins are back in the news. If its not Jose Reyes and his locks, Cespedes and his decision, or the homerun celebration thing out beyond centerfield, the team is making noise. Earlier today the biggest news was Emilio Bonifacio. He beat the team he plays for in arbitration. And while I will leave the specific details to the beat writers who follow the team on a daily basis (he'll make $2.2 million next season instead of the $1.95 million salary targeted by the team), I'm glad for the guy because he stood out last year as team's best player.
- Bonifacio does so many things well for the Fish. He hits, he steals, he defends many positions, he brings excitement, and it is common to see him out there smiling and having a great time. The guy is a utility player. But at any moment can become an everyday player because he is so talented. I remember when the ballclub counted on Alfredo Amezaga in the same way. Rarely do fans ever complain about what these guys give. Its a luxury to have Bonifacio, and again, I'm glad he is going to get paid a little more not only for what he did last year, but for what he will do for the team going forward.
- The unique sculpture that fans will enjoy when a Marlins player hits a home run will be great. I love it when people are quick to judge and bash something without even giving it a chance. At first I had my reservations when I saw the images on-line. But now I am behind the project and the idea of it fully. I can't wait until Sportscenter shows it during their nightly recap of Marlin home games. Plus, did you know the event lasts about 27 seconds after a home run is hit? Roughly the amount of time it takes Mike Stanton to round the bases after hitting a big blast. Read more details about this project here.
- Could Steve Cishek be the best reliever in the Marlins bullpen? Sounds a bit crazy since we only have one season of stats to go on. Jonathan Mitchell however did an excellent job breaking down what Cishek did last year. And the numbers don't lie. Cishek should not just be used nightly. The Marlins might also want to use him in huge spots. He could be that good.
Fish Bites: Wooing Cespedes and Stadium Woes
The Miami Marlins have been quiet for the time being as we slowly but surely approach pitchers and catchers reporting. Of course, there is at least one thing in which the Marlins are very involved.
- Of course, we are talking about the Yoennis Cespedes sweepstakes. All signs point to the two sides being favorable to a deal; Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald says that Cespedes likes Miami, and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel reports that one source thinks the Fish are the favorite. Yesterday evening, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported via Twitter that David Samson told him that the Fish may have an offer ready by the lunch and ballpark tour today. As a blogger for the Marlins, I am more than interested in a potential Cespedes signing, especially since the Marlins were the first team to visit with him and could end up being the last.
- But those are potential future happenings with regards to the Marlins' payroll and talent, but two moves recently occurred regarding the team's current talent. Both Anibal Sanchez and Emilio Bonifacio won their respective arbitration cases. This does not represent a significant blow to the Fish, as the team probably lost out on $1.3 million in these cases. This should not affect any of the Marlins' potential future moves.
Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball Starting Up Soon, Sign Up Now!
With the baseball season fast approaching, there's no better time to start gearing up for your fantasy baseball season. Fish Stripes will be previewing fantasy baseball later in the offseason, but right now, we'd like to suggest a platform for you to try: Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. I've personally used this for many of my leagues, and I would recommend it in an instant for any league trying their hand at basic fantasy baseball or their own league with their own house rules.
Take a look at what Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball has to offer.
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- Yahoo! Sports now offers the fantasy fanatic an even more competitive way to play, Pro Leagues are here! Join a Pro League for $20 or $100 and compete to win cash prizes. For those who dare to put some skin in the game.
- Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball '12 is easy and fun to play for the rookie or veteran fantasy user.
- Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball provides fans with top-notch information, resources, and expert advice.
- Yahoo! Sports provides pre-draft advice clips to help you draft the best team possible. Fantasy advice is also available throughout the season with bi-weekly video clips and weekly radio coverage on the Fantasy Freaks (every Friday 8pm-10pm ET).
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Ricky Nolasco and the Problem with Runners On: Batted Ball Data
This is an ongoing series regarding Ricky Nolasco and his consistent problems with runners on. See the first two parts here and here.
Last week, we went a little more in-depth into the problems Ricky Nolasco has had in the stretch. This week, we are going to explore another area of Nolasco's game, that being the balls in play that he allowed.
First, let us review the observations we made based on last week's data.
Without examining much further for now, we see two interesting points from this data:
1) Nolasco is not hitting the strike zone as often with runners on
2) Nolasco is using less of his effective curveball and more of his less effective fastball and slider with runners on
We suspect that Nolacso is not hitting the strike zone often enough. Perhaps he is being too careful in order to allow juicy pitches to come through the zone with runners on, with the possibility that they might be crushed. But has avoiding the strike zone assisted Nolasco in getting hit less hard? Let us take a look at the data to find out.
Anibal Sanchez Wins Largest Pitcher Arbitration Decision
The Miami Marlins and starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez went to arbitration this weekend to decide between a salary of $6.9 million (Marlins) and $8 million (Sanchez), and in this case, Sanchez won his offer (H/T MLB Daily Dish). It turns out that this deal is actually the largest that a pitcher has ever received when going to arbitration, though obviously pitchers have earned much more during their arbitration years due to extensions and such.
Sanchez will earn about $2 million more than was expected of him by MLB Trade Rumors' projected arbitration salaries, but the Marlins anticipated this and actually offered around $7 million for the righty starter. Either way, this ensures that Sanchez will be a Marlin through 2012 and that he will also test the free agent waters following this year. If you will recall, I have previously advocated signing Sanchez to an extension to ensure that he is on the team for the next four seasons after 2012. With the Marlins unlikely to get a deal done with free agency imminent, it is very likely the team will let him sign on with a bigger fish.







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