Fish Stripes: All Posts by Michael Jong

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Game 45 Thread and Ichthyomancy

2013-05-19T15:56:47Z

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 2-0

Fri 05/17	WP: Trevor Cahill (3 - 4) LP: Kevin Slowey (1 - 4)	2 - 9 loss
Sat 05/18	WP: Brandon McCarthy (1 - 3) LP: Tom Koehler (0 - 2)	0 - 1 loss
Arizona Diamondbacks AZ Snake Pit @ Miami Marlins Fish Stripes Sunday, May 19, 2013, 1:10 PM EDT Marlins Park Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85. Complete Coverage >

As some of you may have heard, I made my trip up to Atlanta for a six-week stay at my parents' hometown for clinical rotations. Eric Weston did a superb job in my absence, including in his reporting of my kidnapping and brainwashing by Atlanta Braves fans. I was indeed stolen away for a day or two before returning to duty late last night. The Braves fans attempted to have me see their way, trying convince me that Jason Heyward was better than Giancarlo Stanton and that John Smoltz really did deserve that Cy Young award over Kevin Brown in 1996.

Don't worry folks, I made it out alive. I am still a Miami Marlins fan down to the very bottom of my soul, and no amount of Braves brainwashing will shake my resolve. All hail ~~Chipper Jones~~ ~~Eric Gregg~~ Livan Hernandez!

Also, break out the brook breakers, because the Miami Marlins are trying to bust up a sweep.

It will be Ricky Nolasco versus Wade Miley in the finale of this series.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Diamondbacks	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.445	4.45	3.87	4.39	Nolasco	Miley	3.75	3.97	4.03	.491

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	.291
2	Placido Polanco	.296
3	Derek Dietrich	---
4	Marcell Ozuna	.323
5	Justin Ruggiano	.333
6	Chris Coghlan	.276
7	Nick Green	---
8	Jeff Mathis	.272

Notes

- Even though this is my first game back, I will actually be out for today's game. I will be back for the recap of the game, however. Keep the seat warm for me guys!

Bold Prediction: Diamondbacks def. Marlins 4-1

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 2-0

Fri 05/17	WP: Trevor Cahill (3 - 4) LP: Kevin Slowey (1 - 4)	2 - 9 loss
Sat 05/18	WP: Brandon McCarthy (1 - 3) LP: Tom Koehler (0 - 2)	0 - 1 loss
Arizona Diamondbacks AZ Snake Pit @ Miami Marlins Fish Stripes Sunday, May 19, 2013, 1:10 PM EDT Marlins Park Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85. Complete Coverage >

Also, break out the brook breakers, because the Miami Marlins are trying to bust up a sweep.

It will be Ricky Nolasco versus Wade Miley in the finale of this series.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Diamondbacks	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.445	4.45	3.87	4.39	Nolasco	Miley	3.75	3.97	4.03	.491

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1	Adeiny Hechavarria	.291
2	Placido Polanco	.296
3	Derek Dietrich	---
4	Marcell Ozuna	.323
5	Justin Ruggiano	.333
6	Chris Coghlan	.276
7	Nick Green	---
8	Jeff Mathis	.272

Notes

- Even though this is my first game back, I will actually be out for today's game. I will be back for the recap of the game, however. Keep the seat warm for me guys!

Bold Prediction: Diamondbacks def. Marlins 4-1

Fish Stripes Weekly Ichthyomancy Update: May 12-18

2013-05-19T15:20:16Z

The week is over, and Ichthyomancy is getting to be a close two-man race once again. But can anyone catch up to the leaders at the top? Let's take a look at this week's standings.

FishStriper	Points
SuperRadz	47
Jigokusabre	44
Jeremy Hulme	22
Ncchief31	21
dcfish	14
kjt1027	12
dgriot	9
d.o.g.o.b.g.y.n.	9
Marlon D	6
Reeves Army	2

Right now, it seems like a two-horse race between SuperRadz and Jigokusabre, as those two have pulled ahead by twenty points versus their nearest competitors. Jigo made the game close by pulling off a nice nine-point week, as he led all players in points in a difficult week. SuperRadz put up three points to maintain his lead, but suddenly Jigo is hot on his tail after trailing by double-digits just two weeks ago.

Credit goes to new player auh11 for his first Ichthyomancy points of the season! Congrats, and welcome to the game!

Again, I have to implore everyone to play consistently, as it is the only way that you can get points and keep others off consistent points like attendance. Putting up your picks every day makes a difference and can keep you in the game.

Congratulations to Jigokusabre, our latest Weekly Ichthyomancy Championship winner! Second week in a row in the winner's circle!

Want to get in on the Ichthyomancy fun? Check out the rules here and start picking today!

MLB Scores: Miami Marlins 0, Arizona Diamondbacks 1

2013-05-19T02:21:22Z

Source: FanGraphs

Attendance: 18,786
Hero of the Game: Tom Koehler (0.176 WPA)
Goat of the Game: Derek Dietrich (-0.137 WPA)
Play of the Game: Gerardo Parra homered in the first inning. (-0.104 WPA)

The good news is that Tom Koehler had an excellent outing and the Miami Marlins stayed in the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks throughout. Koehler had a fantastic start, putting up seven strikeouts in six innings with only two walks. He only allowed more than one baserunner in an inning in his final frame, giving up a walk to Didi Gregorius and a single to the always dangerous Paul Goldschmidt. Outside of that and his lone run, Koehler was stellar, and his 0.176 WPA shows that he was the player who most contributed to the Marlins staying in the game.

The problem is that Koehler's lone run occurred on the first pitch of the first inning, and the Marlins could do nothing to respond. Gerardo Parra's leadoff home run against Koehler was the only run of the game; Koehler allowed just three more hits but otherwise shut out the D'backs. Unfortunately for the Fish, that was enough, as their offense could only squeeze out two walks and three hits. Furthermore, each of the three hits by the Fish were all singles, as Adeiny Hechavarria, Marcell Ozuna, and Chris Coghlan could not muster more than some grounders or liners into the outfield.

Three of the Marlins' five baserunners against starter Brandon McCarthy came in the first inning, when the Fish had their best chance to score. Derek Dietrich was thrown out at home following the Coghlan single, ending the inning and the only scoring threat the Fish had all game.

The Marlins will attempt to avoid the sweep tomorrow afternoon.

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Marlins shut out again, 1-0

2013-05-19T01:59:27Z

Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins' pitching staff kept them in the game throughout, but Brandon McCarthy and the Arizona Diamondbacks triumphed 1-0 in yet another Marlins shutout.

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 1-0

Fri 05/17	WP: Trevor Cahill (3 - 4) LP: Kevin Slowey (1 - 4)	2 - 9 loss
Arizona Diamondbacks AZ Snake Pit @ Miami Marlins Fish Stripes Saturday, May 18, 2013, 7:10 PM EDT Marlins Park Brandon McCarthy vs Tom Koehler Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80. Complete Coverage >
Sun 05/19		1:10 PM EDT

Widgets make their triumphant return to Fish Stripes, and with them, a peaceful sense of normality.

So about that game yesterday. I understand the natural urge to run at the first sight of Paul Goldschmidt. I know many of you abandoned ship when he clobbered the Marlins last night. I wanted to, but duty kept my eyes glued to the screen. I watched to the bitter end, and channeled that experience into this game recap. It's a tale of existential angst, disillusionment, and of course, Goldschmidt.

The Marlins have nominated Tom Koehler to serve as their champion today. At the other end of the arena stands Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy has not been his regular self this year, posting a 5.63 ERA in eight starts. Perhaps the move from luscious expanse of the Oakland Colliseum to the home-run happy Chase Field has hurt him, or perhaps he has still yet to fully recover from his injury last season.

The injury I speak of was a line drive that struck McCarthy in the head, fracturing his skull, and causing an epidural hemorrhage. He later had brain surgery performed to reduce the swelling in his head. Not what I would refer to as "good times."

Here's your haiku for the day:

goldschmidt kills my joy
gentle flower turned ashen
erase from my thoughts

As far as I know, Michael is still playing Native American dress-up, cheering on "America's Team." If you are reading this Michael, we miss you. The Braves are winning baseball games, sure, but it's a hollow experience. Can they treat you with the same respect and warmth that we can? Come home.

Editor's note: Eric, I'm back. Was going to do this game, but it seems you have already taking care of it. Love what you've done with it, but I'm ready to return to full duty. Onward, Fish Stripers!

Bold Prediction: Diamondbacks def. Marlins 5-3

Marlins' Marcell Ozuna is still a free swinger

2013-05-17T17:59:35Z

Miami Marlins rookie outfielder Marcell Ozuna has caught the eye of a lot of fans, as he has flashed some pretty nice swings and a couple of strong throws from the outfield that have quickly established his defensive reputation. All of those things were found in his scouting reports dating back from before this season. Our own Eric Weston said as much in Ozuna's profile before the season.

He's an athletic player who can cover plenty of ground in the outfield, and create havoc on the base-paths. He demonstrates good instincts at basestealing, which has led to a very high success rate. Ozuna's arm registers as a plus-plus tool as well. He could improve the precision of his throws, but the velocity is outstanding.

These tools fail to account for Ozuna's strongest asset, and his claim to fame: power. Huge power. His swing is built to pull the ball, driving it out of the park frequently, and with authority. He struggles to identify pitches out of the strikezone, but when he swings at balls inside the zone, he punishes the baseball.

But the important thing that also needs to be mentioned is the part regarding Ozuna's plate recognition.

If he cannot reduce his strikeout rate, then he will struggle to get on-base or hit home runs. He has survived so far on fantastic bat speed and raw power, but those skills by themselves are not sufficient against advanced pitching. He needs to apply his skills using discipline and intelligence.

It has only been a few weeks on the job for Ozuna, who was shot up from Double-A thanks to a hot start and Giancarlo Stanton's injury. How has Ozuna's plate discipline fared, and has it affected his game at the plate already?

At first, one thinks the answer is "no," as he is off to a great start so far. Even after tonight's 1-for-3 performance, he is still hitting a cool .298/.333/.474 (.348 wOBA). While he only has one home run thus far, he also has five doubles and a triple en route to a passable .175 ISO. But one look at his strikeouts and walks shows exactly what the Marlins were concerned about even though it is early in his major league time. Ozuna has struck out in just 18.0 percent of his plate appearances, but he has also walked in just 4.9 percent of them.

The whole reasoning is in his plate discipline numbers. Take a look at them compared to resident Mad Hacker Justin Ruggiano.

Player, 2013	SWING%	OSWING%	ZSWING%	CONTACT%	OCONTACT%	ZCONTACT%	ZONE%
Ozuna	49	31	66	79	55	91	51
Ruggiano	48	26	71	68	45	77	49

As you can see, Ozuna shares some traits with the Mad Hacker himself. Both players are quite aggressive in swinging, and both are getting very similar rates of pitches in the zone. Ozuna is more adept at making contact. which is why his strikeout rate is lower than Ruggiano's 26 percent mark, but the fact remains that Ozuna still is struggling to discern ball from strike. His 31 percent out-of-zone swing rate is along the same lines as players like Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Dobbs, and Miguel Olivo on the Marlins. You never want to be on a plate discipline list with Miguel Olivo.

This aggressiveness has resulted in a decently high swing-and-miss rate. Ozuna has swung and missed on 10.3 percent of his total pitches. That would put him in the same category as players like Jeff Francoeur, Cody Ross, and Ryan Doumit last season. None of those players are necessarily attractive in terms of plate discipline, and Ozuna so far has been similar.

Of course, it is still early in Ozuna's career, so we cannot glean much information from this small sample. But the data we have so far matches the description of his skills in scouting reports, so it is safe to say that Ozuna's plate discipline remains a concern.

There is one positive in this number and comparison to Ruggiano. Ruggiano has an issue with aggressiveness and contact, but Ozuna thus far has shown passable contact rates. This means that he does not have the strikeout issue that Ruggiano or Stanton have, in which they make inherently less contact and need to fine-tune selectivity just to be acceptable at the plate. Ozuna at the moment is already fairly acceptable thanks to his ability to put the bat on the ball. Now, if he improves his plate discipline, he can look even better at the plate in terms of reducing his strikeouts to potentially below the league norm.

Combine that upside with his raw power and you can see why Marlins fans are excited. The only question is if and when Ozuna can get there, and the Marlins have thrown him into the deep end to find out.

Ricky Nolasco trying to regain missing strikeouts

2013-05-16T11:22:48Z

Miami Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco has not been truly effective for a long time. But once upon a time, people felt that he was better than he was currently performing. In particular, there was a time just a few years ago that we thought Nolasco had the right combination of high strikeouts and low walks that would yield a top-notch starter. In 2009, he struck out 24.8 percent of batters faced. In 2010, he struck out 22.1 percent of them.

Of course, in those two years Nolasco also allowed a 4.81 ERA, so he felt the need to change. Hence, in the last two seasons, Nolasco has transformed into a different pitcher, one who depends on a two-seam fastball to get more ground balls at the expense of fewer strikeouts. We explored this change earlier this year in Nolasco's Pitch F/X scouting report. In it, we found that the increased use of his two-seam fastball has dramatically dropped the amount of whiffs he induces.

But this year, after a few decent strikeout performances, Nolasco mentioned that he misses being a strikeout pitcher.

"It reminded me of that feeling of punching guys out," Nolasco said, of Wednesday's Petco Park outing. "I've thrown well a lot of other times not punching guys out, but it's a different feeling when you're striking guys out and you know you can. Once I felt that feeling it makes me want to be able to do more often."

"You have to go out there and get people out and be efficient," Nolasco said. "That's the most important part. I felt the late life on the slider and that's where I get a lot of my strikeouts. To be able to get that feeling where you're really finishing and getting that extra bite is when the strikeouts come."

The strikeout is a powerful tool, but it has been missing in Nolasco's game for some time. Is it coming back to him this season? Let's take a look at his early 2013 numbers to find out.

On the surface, it does not seem as though Nolasco has returned to whiff-inducing form. A glance at his FanGraphs page shows that he is striking out just 17.4 percent of batters faced this season. This is higher than either endpoint in the last two years, but it is still below his 2008 career-year mark. Once you scroll down, however, an even more important distinction can be made: Nolasco has so far posted the lowest swinging strike rate since his rookie season. This is surprising because it appears he is doing better against hitters with the strikeout despite getting them to swing and miss less often.

Once you check out his Pitch F/X player card on Brooks Baseball, you may see why this has happened. Despite supposedly missing the strikeout, Nolasco has done the one thing he needs to do to decrease his strikeouts: he has increased his two-seamer use. In the last two years, he used the two-seamer approximately 19 percent of the time. That mark has jumped to 26 percent so far this year, which is higher than his four-seam usage.

Nolasco has reverted to being primarily a sinker-type pitcher, but so far it has not helped him do what he wants. Not only has the increased use of the two-seamer decreased his swings and misses (9.5 percent whiff rate this year on a per-swing basis), but it has failed to help him suppress home runs efficiently. He has given up six homers thus far this year and is on pace to allow 21 in 190 innings after only giving up 18 last year. Three of his six homers have come off of the two-seamer, which is doing a terrible job of staying on the ground. The two-seam fastball has only yielded a 37.3 percent ground ball rate thus far this year.

So Nolasco's increased use of his two-seamer has impaired his strikeout ability this year. But what about his slider that he mentions is a key to his strikeouts? Well, according to its whiff rate, it too has lost some bite this season. This early in the year, Nolasco's slider is down to a 27.6 percent whiff rate from a perch of around 33 to 35 percent in the last four years. It is being placed in the zone at about the same rate, but batters are making more contact. In fact, batters are making more contact on all of Nolasco's strong secondary offerings, as his curveball has also lost swing-and-miss effectiveness.

Ricky Nolasco may have whiffed many batters in his last two starts, but his current approach and stuff are not conducive to striking hitters out. With him struggling to get whiffs, it is difficult to imagine him remaining effective with the rest of his declining repertoire. The Marlins should consider trading him while he can still maintain the wool over everyone's eyes.

Fish Cap: Miami Marlins 0, Cincinnati Reds 4

2013-05-16T11:15:40Z

Offense Stalls Again

The Marlins' offense did what it always does on days where I am responsible for writing the Fish Cap: absolutely nothing. This time, the Fish were shut out by ASU alum (I'm one as of this past week) Mike Leake, who threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing 9 hits, yet not giving up a run. It's safe to assume at this point that opposing pitchers circle their starts against the Marlins, eager to get their ERA's to respectable levels and throw what is essentially a simulated game that actually counts in the standings.

The story, as it has often been this season, was the club's inability to convert with runners in scoring position. The Fish were 1-for-10 with RISP and it's the billionth time (give or take) that they have struggled immensely with finding a way to put runs on the board. It's not often that a team puts up double digits in the hit column and manages to get shut out. The Marlins did that tonight against the Reds. Congrats, I guess?

My Prophecy Is Fulfilled

Remember when I said it was only a matter of time before Derek Dietrich was hitting third in the Marlins' order? Well, surprise! One Derek Dietrich (hitting .400 now on the season!) hit third in this game. If there's any indication just how bad this offense is, just consider this fact: Derek Dietrich, a guy with barely a week of experience in the major leagues, is hitting third in the order. That's not a knock on Derek Dietrich, but rather an illustration of how desperate this offense is to score runs. Did you get a few hits this week? You might be eligible to participate in a new experiment called "Hitting Third In The Marlins' Order!" No purchase or big league experience necessary. Side effects may triple digits in the loss column.

Don't get me wrong, I'm ecstatic for young guys like Derek Dietrich and Marcell Ozuna continuing to make an impact on this roster. But even elite prospects are eased into their big league experience by hitting low in the lineup and not being counted on to drive in runs right away. That's what is being expected out of Dietrich and Ozuna right now. I love the way they're swinging the bat so far, but games like these only add to the pressure that they're feeling to prove themselves in their first taste of the big leagues.

Sweet Relief

Ryan Webb, Chad Qualls and Mike Dunn combined for three innings of scoreless relief following Alex Sanabia, and it's a unit that's starting to find its footing. Over the past week, the Marlins' bullpen has posted the ninth-best ERA in baseball according to Fangraphs. MINOR VICTORIES, AM I RIGHT PEOPLE?

Looking Ahead

The Marlins will play a professional baseball game tomorrow afternoon at Marlins Park, with 20-year-old ace Jose Fernandez on the mound. Fernandez will face of against Mat "One-T" Latos, so I have given you every reason you need to watch this game.

Source: FanGraphs

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: Game 41 Thread and Ichthyomancy

2013-05-15T22:03:42Z

Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Marlins Park

Cincinnati Reds Red Reporter @ Miami Marlins Fish Stripes Tuesday, May 14, 2013, 7:10 PM EDT Marlins ParkM Complete Coverage >
Wed 05/15		7:10 PM EDT
Thu 05/16		7:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are looking to avenge an ugly 6-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds last night by defeating them tonight in the second game of a three-game series. It will be Alex Sanabia, whose switched with Ricky Nolasco in pitching order to give him extra rest due to a minor injury, versus Mike Leake.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Reds	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.330	5.69	5.66	4.85	Sanabia	Leake	4.32	4.31	4.63	.426

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1	Juan Pierre	.294
2	Placido Polanco	.278
3	Derek Dietrich	---
4	Marcell Ozuna	.304
5	Justin Ruggiano	.312
6	Greg Dobbs	.286
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	.274
8	Rob Brantly	.304

Bold Prediction: Reds def. Marlins 4-0

Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Marlins Park

Cincinnati Reds Red Reporter @ Miami Marlins Fish Stripes Tuesday, May 14, 2013, 7:10 PM EDT Marlins ParkM Complete Coverage >
Wed 05/15		7:10 PM EDT
Thu 05/16		7:10 PM EDT

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win%	Proj ERA	FIP	ERA	Marlins	Reds	ERA	FIP	Proj ERA	Proj Win%
.330	5.69	5.66	4.85	Sanabia	Leake	4.32	4.31	4.63	.426

Lineup

Order	Player	Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1	Juan Pierre	.294
2	Placido Polanco	.278
3	Derek Dietrich	---
4	Marcell Ozuna	.304
5	Justin Ruggiano	.312
6	Greg Dobbs	.286
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	.274
8	Rob Brantly	.304

Bold Prediction: Reds def. Marlins 4-0

Fish Stripes: All Posts by Michael Jong

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Game 45 Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 2-0

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 2-0

Fish Stripes Weekly Ichthyomancy Update: May 12-18

How to play Ichthyomancy

MLB Scores: Miami Marlins 0, Arizona Diamondbacks 1

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Marlins shut out again, 1-0

Current Series

Diamondbacks lead the series 1-0

Marlins' Marcell Ozuna is still a free swinger

Ricky Nolasco trying to regain missing strikeouts

Fish Cap: Miami Marlins 0, Cincinnati Reds 4

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: Game 41 Thread and Ichthyomancy

Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Marlins Park

Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Marlins Park