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The Marlins Should Steer Clear of a Long-term Shields Deal

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Although this has been the busiest off-season for the Marlins in the last few years, one thing remains the same: the need to polish-off the rotation. As an 18 year-old, I have closely followed the Fish for nearly all of my life. Throughout this period, I cannot remember a time (apart from in 2003) when the Fish had a complete rotation where all 5 starters gave the team a chance to win every time they pitched. It looks as though the same predicament could rear it's head for the 2015 season.

In my opinion, here is the rotation as it stands right now with the best pitchers that are available on the roster:

  1. Henderson Álvarez – 12-7, 2.65 ERA, 187 IP in 2014

  2. Mat Latos – 5-5, 3.25 ERA, 102.1 IP in 2014

  3. Jarred Cosart – 13-11, 3.69 ERA, 180.1 IP in 2014 (4-4, 2.39ERA, 64 IP with the Marlins)

  4. Tom Koehler – 10-10, 3.81 ERA, 191.1 IP in 2014

  5. Dan Haren – 13-11, 4.02 ERA, 186 IP in 2014

On paper, that looks fairly impressive considering that the league average ERA in 2014 was 3.74. Additionally, José Fernández and his glistening career 2.25 ERA will once again be the ace after returning from injury around mid-season. What’s the problem then? As you all probably know by now, although Dan Haren has said that he will report to spring training, he has explicitly stated that he does not want to leave the west coast and pitch in Miami.

With the Marlins being on what appears to be the brink of a postseason berth this year (barring any major injuries), this could be a potentially devastating blow. Even willing to leave $10 million on the table and retire, Haren has asked for a trade but the team has not found any suitors yet. Even if they do, I’m not confident that they will receive a good return for an aging pitcher.

With that in mind, it seems like it would make sense to sign the last 'ace' on the market, James Shields. It’s either that or have someone like David Phelps (5-5, 4.28 ERA, 17 starts in 2014) try and anchor the back-end of the rotation until José returns. However, I do not think signing James Shields to a long and expensive contract (which he is looking for) is the smartest move the Fish could make.

Firstly, based on last year’s statistics, I would place Álvarez ahead of Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 227 IP in 2014) in the rotation. Even though Shields has more experience, Álvarez is coming off a career year and will only improve as he is heading into his age-25 season. Furthermore, he already has a lower career ERA than shields, 33, although it is only a minimal advantage (3.70 compared to 3.72). Upon his return, José Fernández will be eased back into the role of number one starter, but once he finds his feet again James Shields could be bumped down to third starter.

Is a number 3 starter worth in the region of $100 million?

I think not.

Plus, major league teams do not learn. Older players – especially pitchers – are not worth these mega contracts which they sign, there is too much of a risk involved regarding injuries and they rarely pay off. Let’s examine the case of Barry Zito. Zito was renowned as an extremely dependant starting pitcher heading into the 2006/2007 off-season after posting 6 straight seasons with over 200 innings pitched. At age 28, the 2002 AL Cy Young award pitcher left Oakland and signed a 7-year, $126 million contract with San Francisco. During the contract he had a losing record of 58-69 and owned a 4.47 ERA.

Similarly to Zito, Shields is known for his durability. James Shields has posted 8 straight 200 inning seasons and this is a major warning sign as he has thrown a LOT of pitches in his career. He is also north of 32 years old so his production is bound to drop and his 6.12 ERA this postseason could have been an indicator of what is to come. Unless the Marlins could somehow sign Shields to a 2 or 3 year contract with options, this would not be a good signing in the long run. Considering what happened with Barry Zito, I would much prefer to see the Fish looking for trade options with Haren’s $10 million salary that the Dodgers are giving them and mid-level prospects.

The Fish are so close to the postseason that we, the loyal fans in 'Marlins Country', can almost taste it. The Marlins do not need to counter the Scherzer signing with Shields. Without last year’s injuries, the team could have easily won 6 or 7 more games and the 2015 team is shaping up to be much better. The gap to the Nats is smaller than most people think.

There is a possible issue with the rotation, but let’s not be hasty, we don’t want another 2012 on our hands.

Information from mlb.com and Bleacher Report was used in this article.

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