Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Game 32 Thread and Ichthyomancy

Rich Schultz

The Miami Marlins are looking to get the split of this four-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies, and they will throw out their best pitcher thus far this season in Kevin Slowey.

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Phillies lead the series 2-1

Thu 05/02 WP: Kyle Kendrick (3 - 1)
LP: Alex Sanabia (2 - 4)
2 - 7 loss
Fri 05/03 WP: Jonathan Pettibone (2 - 0)
SV: Jonathan Papelbon
LP: Ricky Nolasco (2 - 3)
1 - 4 loss
Sat 05/04 WP: Jose Fernandez (1 - 2)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Cole Hamels (1 - 4)
2 - 0 win

Miami Marlins
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Sunday, May 5, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Kevin Slowey vs Roy Halladay

Sunny. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60.

Complete Coverage >


The Miami Marlins are looking for the split of the four-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies, and that would be a big step up from what appeared to be a ready-made sweep after the first two games. The Fish got a strong pitching performance from Jose Fernandez last night, and the team is looking for a similar performance tonight from Kevin Slowey. Facing Slowey will be Roy Halladay, who dominated the Marlins in his first start.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Phillies ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.433 4.56 3.13 2.15 Slowey Halladay 6.75 5.72 3.71 .529

Kevin Slowey has performed admirably to begin the season, clearly pitching better than anyone else in the Marlins' rotation. He had his best game as a Marlin in his last outing, allowing just one run versus the New York Mets while striking out eight and walking none. But that does not mean there are not concerns about his game. He still has only allowed three home runs despite a 32 percent ground ball rate, and the homers should come soon, especially against a dangerous Phillies lineup with some pop.

Roy Halladay has struggled mightily to begin the season, as he has a 6.74 ERA and a 5.72 FIP. His strikeouts and walks indicate a better performance, but he has been allowing a lot of home runs to begin the year; Halladay has given up eight homers in 32 innings thus far. I would say that is not a problem with the Marlins, but the Fish have hit four home runs in three games this series, so it might still be an issue. Then again, one of Halladay's best starts of the year came against the Marlins, when he threw eight innings and gave up just one run, albeit with only two strikeouts to his name.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Juan Pierre .294
2 Chris Valaika .267
3 Placido Polanco .278
4 Justin Ruggiano .312
5 Marcell Ozuna .304
6 Greg Dobbs .286
7 Miguel Olivo .280
8 Adeiny Hechavarria .274

This lineup currently boasts only two players, Justin Ruggiano and, strangely enough, rookie Marcell Ozuna, who are projected to hit better than a .300 wOBA against right-handers. Miguel Olivo is getting his second straight start despite Rob Brantly being a better hitter versus righties. Greg Dobbs has somehow been pushed to batting sixth after the team's infatuation for him has been diminished thanks to Ozuna's presence. The Fish are putting a lot more faith in Chris Valaika than is probably correct given his projections

Notes

- I will be around for the earliest portion of the game, but I have a prior commitment to go to and will be out for most of the game.

- If you guys want to check how you're doing on Ichthyomancy, check out the latest update. SuperRadz has a big lead thus far.

Bold Prediction: Phillies def. Marlins 5-0

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