Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Game 31 Thread and Ichthyomancy

Marc Serota

The Miami Marlins will battle their nemesis in starting pitcher Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies in the third game of this four-game set. Jose Fernandez will take the mound for the Fish.

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Current Series

Phillies lead the series 2-0

Thu 05/02 WP: Kyle Kendrick (3 - 1)
LP: Alex Sanabia (2 - 4)
2 - 7 loss
Fri 05/03 WP: Jonathan Pettibone (2 - 0)
SV: Jonathan Papelbon
LP: Ricky Nolasco (2 - 3)
1 - 4 loss

Miami Marlins
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Saturday, May 4, 2013, 7:05 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Jose Fernandez vs Cole Hamels

Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60.

Complete Coverage >

Sun 05/05 2:35 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins will look to get at least start a potential split of this four-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies, but a major roadblock stands in their way. Cole Hamels, one of the many Marlins destroyers on the Philies' rotation, takes the mound opposite rookie Jose Fernandez as the Fish look to stop a three-game skid.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Phillies ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.520 3.79 3.67 4.50 Fernandez Hamels 4.78 4.28 3.49 .557

Jose Fernandez has struggled for three straight starts, having given up 11 runs in 13 innings with just 10 strikeouts versus eight walks. It has not been pretty, and the secret story that not many are talking about regarding Fernandez is his distinct lack of swings and misses. He has only a 7.9 percent swinging strike rate, which is concerning for Marlins fans.

Hamels is a regular destroyer of the Fish, as he owns a 3.29 ERA over 164 innings against the Fish in his career. But this year, Hamels has been a different pitcher, having walked more guys than ever before (10.6 percent walk rate in 2013 versus career 6.2 percent rate) and returned to being a fly ball pitcher susceptible to the home run. Shouldn't be a problem versus the Marlins' lineup though, right? #MJIJ

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Donovan Solano .290
2 Chris Valaika ---
3 Placido Polanco .296
4 Justin Ruggiano .333
5 Marcell Ozuna ---
6 Matt Diaz .305
7 Miguel Olivo .309
8 Adeiny Hechavarria .291

The Marlins surprisingly have the largest number of mediocre hitters (as opposed to terrible hitters) when facing lefties, especially if the team continues to bench lefty hitters like Juan Pierre (projected .286 wOBA versus lefties) and Rob Brantly (.272) in favor of newcomer Matt Diaz and Miguel Olivo. Of course, neither of those guys will make a significant impact, but at least it's a positive move.

Bold Prediction: Phillies def. Marlins 5-1

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