Game 147: Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Marlins lead the series 2-0

Fri 09/14 WP: Jacob Turner (1 - 2)
LP: Bronson Arroyo (12 - 8)
4 - 0 win
Sat 09/15 WP: Mark Buehrle (13 - 12)
SV: Steve Cishek
LP: Johnny Cueto (17 - 9)
6 - 4 win

Cincinnati Reds
@ Miami Marlins

Sunday, Sep 16, 2012, 1:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Mat Latos vs Ricky Nolasco

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

Complete Coverage >


This feels strange to say, but get out the brooms, because the Miami Marlins are looking for a sweep.

I know, it's extremely odd, but the Marlins are indeed looking for a three-game sweep of the NL Central division leaders, the Cincinnati Reds. The Fish used pitching to win the first game 4-0 and hitting to win the second 6-4. This afternoon, they will need both to overcome the rubber match, as Mat Latos battles a suddenly hot RIcky Nolasco.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Reds ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
--- --- 3.97 4.40 Nolasco Latos 3.72 4.06 --- ---

Just when you think you have Ricky Nolasco all figured out, he goes ahead and throws up some ridiculous numbers your way and you are terribly confused once more. All season, we have been describing Nolasco as dead weight after a third consecutive year of falling strikeout rates and the highest walk rate since his rookie year. And just as we thought, "Yeah, he's done for," he goes ahead and pitches three gems in a row for the Marlins. In his last three starts, Nolasco has thrown 25 innings, including two complete game shutouts of the Washington Nationals. He has a 0.36 ERA in those three starts, and he has struck out 16 batters (16.7 percent of hitters) while walking just one (1.0 percent of hitters). The strikeouts are still down compared to years ago, but he also has held his home runs down for the second straight year, which has been his only saving grace this season. Can he keep up his hot streak against a good Reds lineup that has been grounded in this series? Probably not #MJIJ.

Remember how Mat Latos strikes out a ton of hitters and does not walk too many? Well, his strikeouts are down this season, but that is not the main culprit of his supposed struggles in 2012. His biggest problem is that, since moving to the Great American Ballpark, the fly balls that were once held by Petco Park in San Diego are now flying out more. Latos is allowing 1.4 homers per nine innings at home, and 14 percent of his fly balls in Cincinnati are going out. However, his road home run numbers are also up, so it is not just the park that has made him less effective.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Bryan Petersen .316
2 Justin Ruggiano .324
3 Jose Reyes .340
4 Giancarlo Stanton .379
5 Carlos Lee .324
6 Greg Dobbs .286
7 Donovan Solano .275
8 John Buck .283

Bold Prediction: Reds def. Marlins 5-1

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