Game 145: Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Current Series

Marlins lead the series 1-0

Fri 09/14 WP: Jacob Turner (1 - 2)
LP: Bronson Arroyo (12 - 8)
4 - 0 win

Cincinnati Reds
@ Miami Marlins

Saturday, Sep 15, 2012, 7:10 PM EDT
Marlins Park

Johnny Cueto vs Mark Buehrle

Partly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Sun 09/16 1:10 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins picked up a surprising (and surprisingly easy) 4-0 victory in last night's opening game of the three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds. In retrospect, it should not have been that surprising, seeing as though the Marlins probably had their best shot at a win in last night's game.

Tonight's affair is a little different. On the mound for the Fish is the suddenly erratic Mark Buehrle, who is not putting up his typical control stuff like he usually does and is giving a few too many home runs. Opposite him is Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto, who looks to continue his magical season.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Reds ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
--- --- 4.25 3.74 Buehrle Cueto 2.71 3.14 --- ---

Mark Buehrle is having one of his best years in terms of preventing walks and getting strikeouts. This is the second lowest walk rate of his career and the fourth highest strikeout rate of his career. So why does he seem to having such a hard time this year? Recently, Buehrle has had a spat of home run hit off of him, and overall he is giving up a homer in 11.2 percent of his fly balls, the third highest rate in his career. This has led to his worst FIP since 2009 despite the improved walk and strikeout numbers. Beyond that, he also has struggled a little with control as of late, having walked six batters in his last three starts.

Johnny Cueto has been masterful this season after having one of the quietest 2.31 ERA years of recent memory in 2011. It is amazing to think that Cueto has a 2.53 ERA and 3.28 FIP in his last 348 2/3 innings, and yet only this season has he gotten any Cy Young buzz. Of course, he only made 24 starts last year and pitched 156 innings, so that hurt his case, but this year he is making a full-on assault at that Cy Young crown. The oddest thing is that he has done this well in part because he has done the opposite that Buehrle has this year: he has prevented a ton of homers, which is hard to do when you regularly make starts in the Great American Ballpark.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. RHP
1 Bryan Petersen .316
2 Justin Ruggiano .324
3 Jose Reyes .340
4 Giancarlo Stanton .379
5 Carlos Lee .324
6 Greg Dobbs .286
7 Donovan Solano .275
8 Rob Brantly ---

Same lineup that tore up Bronson Arroyo last night, and given the fact that this lineup has not done much int eh way of tearing anything other Stephen Strasburg's pitching lately, that's a good thing. Carlos Lee is in the lineup after being pulled last night following a wild play in which two runs scored on a single and some baserunning creativity that ended with Carlos Lee diving headfirst into second base and taking out an airborne Reds shortstop Wilson Valdez on his way to the third out of the inning.

Notes

- A number of things went wrong in yesterday's Game Thread. In particular, no one on SB Nation was able to front-page the game threads across the network, but that issue has been resolved overnight (thanks Luke and company in SB Nation Support!). Also, I was having a difficulty with my account with regards to commenting, as I was locked out of comments everywhere on SB Nation. I've since resolved the problem with my browser and will be here for tonight's festivities.

Bold Prediction: Reds def. Marlins 3-1

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