Game 28: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Miami Marlins
@ San Diego Padres

Sunday, May 6, 2012, 4:05 PM EDT
Petco Park

Ricky Nolasco vs Joe Wieland

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70.

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Get the brooms out, because the Miami Marlins are looking for the sweep.

The Fish are looking to take three games out of three from their second series in a row following their sweep of the San Francisco Giants. It does feel good to say that the Marlins are in line for another sweep, because taking their sixth game in a row would also bring them back to .500 for the first time since the awful five-game road trip against the Nationals and Mets. The Fish will send Ricky Nolasco to do the job against the Padres, while they counter with Joe Wieland.

Pitching Matchup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Padres ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.456 4.35 3.79 2.76 Nolasco Wieland 4.91 5.32 4.35 .456

Ricky Nolasco is posting an impressive ERA, and even his FIP is not doing badly. But a combination of a precipitous fall in strikeouts and a rise in walk rate has this blogger worried that the other shoe will fall any day now. Nolasco's whiff rate is at its lowest since 2007, so he is not as ready to rack up the strikeouts that made him a saber-friendly darling in the last few seasons. Luckily for him, he takes on a poor Padres lineup that is not well-equipped to take advantage of Nolasco's seeming decline in peripheral production.

The Padres are going with Wieland, who has posted decent strikeout and walk numbers thus far this season. His issue is that he has surrendered five homers in 22 innings, but his 3.84 SIERA indicates good things to come, and ZiPS's projection of a 4.35 ERA is impressive for a rookie. Wieland was the tenth-ranked pitcher in the Padres organization according to Marc Hulet of FanGraphs, and apparently he projects as a #3 pitcher in the big leagues.

Lineup

You Fish Stripers will have to help me again with the lineup, because I will be driving my way up to Atlanta in the hours before the game.

Bold Prediction: Marlins def. Padres 3-1

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