Game 5: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, Game Thread and Ichthyomancy

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Miami Marlins
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, Apr 9, 2012, 1:05 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Anibal Sanchez vs Cole Hamels

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 20-25 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.

Complete Coverage >



Current Series

3 game series vs Phillies @ Citizens Bank Park

Miami Marlins
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, Apr 9, 2012, 1:05 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park

Anibal Sanchez vs Cole Hamels

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 20-25 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.

Complete Coverage >

Wed 04/11 7:05 PM EDT
Thu 04/12 7:05 PM EDT

The Miami Marlins are still on the road, as they travel to Philadelphia for a disjointed three-game set against the division rival Philadelphia Phillies starting this afternoon. Both the Fish and Phillies are coming off disappointing series, so both teams will be looking to bounce back against each other. The Marlins just lost a heartbreaking third game of their series versus the Cincinnati Reds when Heath Bell and Hanley Ramirez contributed to blowing a one-run lead in the ninth. The Phillies know a lot about one-run losses, as they suffered two at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, including one in extra innings.

EDIT: Lineup updated. Giancarlo Stanton will be off today, with Chris Coghlan in left field and Austin Kearns in right field.

Pitching Mathcup

Proj Win% Proj ERA FIP ERA Marlins Cardinals ERA FIP Proj ERA Proj Win%
.534 3.67 -- -- Sanchez Hamels -- -- 3.30 .581

This is a matchup between two of the best starters on their respective teams. The Phillies send Cole Hamels for his first start of the season despite this being the team's fourth game. Hamels transformed himself into something of a ground ball pitcher last season, which really helped to suppress some home runs in Citizens Bank Ballpark. On the other side, the Marlins will trot out Anibal Sanchez, who was placed in the fifth starter role likely due to the timing of his pitching in Spring Training more than his skill level. Sanchez is arguably the second-best starter on the Marlins, so one would expect him to be in a lopsided matchup in the fifth slot, but he gets the unenviable challenge of facing a star pitcher his first time out.

Lineup

Order Player Proj wOBA vs. LHP
1 Jose Reyes .362
2 Emilio Bonifacio .305
3 Hanley Ramirez .375
4 Gaby Sanchez .366
5 Austin Kearns .304
6 Chris Coghlan .297
7 Omar Infante .317
8 John Buck .321

The Marlins will give some time off to Logan Morrison again as the Fish have yet another day game this afternoon. Morrison is still hampered by his sore knee, but he has looked better and the team just wants to take it easy on him early in the year. The Fish will also rest Giancarlo Stanton today. Kearns and Coghlan will likely take their spots in the lineup. Coghlan looks like an auspicious choice given his projection against left-handers.

The Fish lineup is right-handed heavy, so theoretically we would expect those lineups to do well. But traditionally the Fish have had a hard time in the past with lefty starters, especially soft-tossing lefties. Now, Hamels is no soft-tosser, but his best pitch is his excellent changeup, so don't be surprised if the Fish look off-balance in today's game.

Notes

- The Phillies are going to be without first baseman Ryan Howard, who is in the first season of his mammoth five-year, $125 million extension, for the first few months of the season. As a result, they are going to a plethora of players to carry them through the first few months at first base. Yesterday, a future Hall of Famer manned the position for the first time in a long time; Jim Thome played innings at first base yesterday for the first time since 2007. Of course, Thome once was the man in Philadelphia, before Howard came around, so it is not a sore sight for Phillies fans, but it has been a while since Thome has had a glove. It is very likely that his performance defensively will be very poor.

Bold Prediction: Phillies def. Marlins 3-2

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